저자: NileshShah · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 인도 시장은 적정가치 구간이며 장기 투자 관점에서 매력이 있으나, 단기 과열과 글로벌 보호무역·지정학 리스크에 대비해야 한다. 인도 시장 평가와 짐 로저스 비판 대응: 짐 로저스 등 외국 인사들은 인도를 상공에서 보는 거시적 시각이며 현지 기업 디테일을 충분히 보지 못한다. 2008년 글로벌 전략가들의 경고를 무시하고 기업 펀더멘털을 본 것이 성과로 이어졌다는 주장. 밸류에이션: 현재 인도 시장은 2008년 말·2013년 중반의 저평가 구간보다 비싸고, 2000년·2008년 초의 고평가 구간보다는 싼 '공정가치' 시장으로 본다. 투자 전략: 투자자는 자산배분 원칙을 지키고, 주식 과다 시 일부 차익실현, 과소 시 6~12개월에 걸쳐 목표 비중까지 체계적 이전, 중립이면 3~5년간 매월 적립식 투자 권장. 종목 접근: 시장 전체가 공정가치라도 개별 종목에서 초과수익 가능. 2008년 당시 부동산 섹터는 비쌌지만 제약 섹터는 저평가였던 사례를 든다. 펀드 운용은 이런 종목 발굴로 시장 초과수익을 노린다고 설명. 니치 종목: 인도에도 펀더멘털이 좋은 니치 종목 세그먼트가 존재하며, 주가가 움직이기 시작하면 뒤늦게 추격 매수가 몰린다는 점을 언급. 랠리 위치 판단: 최근 3년간 시장이 크게 올라 소형·중형 펀드 다수가 높은 수익률을 기록했으나, 지금을 강세장 초입이라 단정하기는 어렵다고 봄. 2003~2008년 같은 강세 국면과 비슷하게 보며, 조정(15~20%)은 언제든 올 수 있다고 강조. 펀더멘털은 점진적으로 개선 중이나 시장이 탐욕 기반에서 희망·탐욕 기반 투자로 옮겨가고 있다고 경계. 리스크: 북한·시리아 등 지정학 리스크와 세계 각국의 보호무역(IT 인력 비자 제한, 현지조달 의무 등) 확산이 글로벌 성장과 인도 기업 실적을 훼손할 수 있어 면밀히 봐야 한다고 언급. 외국인 자금: 외국인 투자자(FII) 자금 흐름, 특히 예산안 발표 이후 흐름을 주시할 필요가 있다고 언급.
다듬은 글
9163 is the level of NiFi. We now have a special guest joining us. Nilesh Shah is with us. Let's talk to them. Nilesh morning to you. Thank you for joining us in this conversation. And first of all congratulations. You've given a good answer Jim Rogers. And you have a knack of writing such open letters.
And mostly gym goers are its recipients. What would you like to say? No, I mean Jim Rogers is much older, more experienced, and much taller than us. And clearly, when he gives his opinion, many people are impacted by it. And many times it happens that when such big personalities come to India for a day or two, they will not be able to create a picture of the entire India.
We live in India only. We keep travelling across the country and yet many times when we watch TV, read media, meet companies, we realise that we have not seen so many things. So this was an attempt to tell Jim Rogers the truth about the current situation in India so that he could take an informed decision.
We are Nilesh but you know this and I am not making any such comment for any particular person. But these are kind of conscious views from the eye wood. You might remember that some time ago we had also heard the views of Ruchir Sharma. At that time, he too was not very convinced about the India story.
Now we also heard the view of Jim Rogers. In fact, we also had a live conversation with him a few days ago. So even at that time, he seemed a little worried. And that is why he had clearly mentioned that he is actually buying into dollar assets and gold. What is your view? So in a sense, all of them are great warriors, veterans.
He looks at India from 300 feet above. We are small people. Live in India only. Have to invest in India only. So we look at companies. Don't pay much attention to micro. These people have the option to invest anywhere in the world. They can leverage, they can short. But in my career of last 25 years, I have seen that most of the white people who commentate in India mostly do negative commentary.
There is a particular master whose name is Doctor Doom. In the last 25 years, he must have said about 25 times that India should be sold and left. Now if you had listened to him and stood on the platform, the Sussex train would have started from 100 and reached 300. You just stand on the platform. So we have always seen that no matter what outsiders say, listen to their opinion and look at their estimates.
But you should concentrate on your research. In 2008, we saw that all the white strategists of the world came and scared us. This happened to Liam and the brothers, that happened, the world would shut down, it would be destroyed. Now, if we had listened to him at that time and sold our equities and stayed in cash, then we would not have this job today.
We ignored his words and looked at our companies and saw that these companies are available at a time date time price to book. 10 Time price to forward earnings pay is available. So what problem do we have? Lehman Brothers expired in America. What difference does it make to Indian banks or Indian companies ?
And the call we made to ignore the white strategists and follow our own research has led to performance that actually outperforms the benchmark by a significant margin. In America, almost 85 to 90% of fund managers underperform the index. In India, 85 to 90% of fund managers and almost 90% of fund managers outperform the index.
So listen to everyone and do your own thing. In fact Nilesh, what you have said is very important and interesting. Currently, most of the voices coming regarding the Indian markets are that there are expensive valuations. The markets have run high now. Wait a bit and at such a time you have said that the market is attractive even at these valuations and there can be an increase from here also.
So what I want to know is what is your outlook on the markets from here. The first thing and the second thing is what will be the factors that will bring growth in the market. So one thing is that the valuation at this time is not as cheap as it was in the end of 2008 or in the middle part of 2013. At the same time, it is not as expensive as it was in 2000 or early 2008.
This is a fair value market. You are probably buying something worth ₹100 for ₹15. Maybe they are buying it for ₹100. When investing in this type of market, you have three choices. One is that you follow Kumbhakaran, invest and see what returns you get after 14 years. Now after Ramayana we have never seen Kumbhakaran.
So it will be very difficult for investors to follow it. The second thing is to look at your asset allocation while investing. If you are over-invested in equity, book some profit. If you are under-invested in equities, then make a systematic transfer plan and reach your target allocation in the next 6 to 12 months.
And if you have neutral allocation then you should make a systematic investment plan. Invest money gradually every month for the next three, four or five years. So from the investor's side, we need to make investment rules under the supervision of our allocation and secondly, we should invest for long term.
From a fund management point of view, we see that Yes Market is fairly valued, so at this point we will have to look at the stock. There are some stocks which can outperform the market even at this time. In 2008, when the market reached its highest valuations, the real estate sector had become expensive but the entire pharmaceutical sector looked cheap.
The market cap of DLF, a real estate company, was equal to the market cap of the entire pharmaceutical sector. So obviously, if you had invested in the pharmaceutical sector at that time, which was at the peak level of market valuation at that time, but the valuation of the sector was low, then you would still have made good returns.
So our effort as a fund management will be to invest in stocks and bring outperformance in the market from here. We are absolutely Nilesh, anyway you know this and actually you know I use the word necessaries because it is not that such a community exists only outside India. In India too, we have seen that there is a huge segment of such niche stocks which are fundamentally good.
At first, I do n't believe it. Then when the market starts moving, suddenly you realize that now it is moving. When it starts moving, you know they get into that left out feeling and then they start buying desperately, so this section is there in India as well as abroad but you know okay Jim Rogers has his own view, if we look at the flows of FI and especially after the budget till now if we look at their flows, the kind of trend that has been seen, the kind of run up the market has also given, now you tell me what your crystal ball says, RV in the middle of a sustained run up, I will not use the word boom or bull run.
I'm saying are we in the middle of a sustained run up? Are we at the [ __ ] end of a bull run or are we at the beginning of a long-term bull market? I think if we look at the market movement of the last approximately 3 years, it has given very good returns. There are many small and mid cap funds which have given almost 7% returns.
So it would be difficult to say that the market is now at the beginning of a bull run from here. Hmm. Because if funds have given 100% returns in the last 3 years then it is a bull market. The second thing is that even when there is a bull market, there can be a correction in it. We saw an unprecedented boom in the Indian stock market from 2003 to 2008.
But the market had also given a correction of 15-20 taka several times. So we think our time today is approximately between 2003 and 2008. The fundamentals are gradually improving. A platform of microeconomic fundamentals remains in place. And instead of investing based on greed, the market has started investing based on hope and greed.
Obviously, in this situation, there can definitely be a correction in the market. Volatility can definitely occur. But if you take a 3 to 5 year view, you can still get outperformance by investing systematically in this market. Yes Nilesh, you talked about one more thing, bull run. Can US or global factors pose any risk in this bull run ?
And the second thing that these FI flows should watch at this time is whether they are investing money in the Indian markets or not? Definitely, global conditions should be looked at very closely. The global situation is at a critical stage today. What will happen in North Korea? What will happen in Syria?
Because of that, we see how geopolitical risks will develop and that will impact the market. On the other hand, what is even more important is that many countries of the world are focusing on protectionism. Everyone is preparing to build walls in their countries. No one has to give visa to employees of IT sector.
Someone has to promote locally manufactured companies within government contracts. So this wall of protectionism that is being built in Europe, the US, Australia, all these things can impact global growth and can also impact our companies and our economies. So we have to look at two things in the global situation.
How a trade protectionism plays out. How the second geopolitical scenario plays out. So, we definitely have to look closely at the global conditions and global environments and that can have an adverse impact on the market.
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