저자: HowardMarks인터뷰영상,진행자InvestorCenter · 외국인
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결론: 하워드 막스는 현재 자산 전반이 버블 상태이며 향후 수익률이 역사적 평균보다 낮을 것이라고 경고한다. 거시 진단: 막스는 주식, 채권, 부동산 등 거의 모든 자산 가격이 높다고 본다. S&P 500은 2020년 3월 약 2200에서 4400대로 두 배가 되었고, 미국 주택 중간 매매가는 약 25% 상승했다. 하이일드 채권: 스프레드 300bp 수준은 향후 신용손실을 감당할 만큼 충분하다고 보고, 장기적으로 국채 투자자보다 높은 성과를 낼 것으로 본다. 다만 단기 손실 가능성은 인정한다. 신용시장 전망: 신용시장이 이렇게 매력이 없었던 적은 없었다고 언급했다. 과거 2~4년 전에는 채권 버블이 우려였지만 지금은 '모든 것의 버블'이라고 표현했다. 저수익 환경: 현재 예상 수익률은 역대 최저 수준이며, 연금·기금이 요구하는 연 7% 수익 달성이 어려워 고객들에게 더 큰 부담이라고 밝혔다. 통화정책: 연준이 금리를 0 부근으로 낮추고 자산매입을 한 것이 주가와 저금리를 떠받치고 있다고 분석한다. 막스는 연준이 펀치볼을 치워야 할 때라며, 금리가 연준이 아니라 경제 참여자들이 원하는 수준에서 형성되도록 금리를 다시 올려야 한다는 입장이다. 사이클 위치: 주식시장 사이클은 높은 가격대이지만 경기 사이클은 초기 단계라 독특한 상황이라고 설명했다. 막스의 심리 사이클(낙관→흥분→도취→부인→공포→패닉→절망→우울→희망)에서 현재는 과열 쪽에 가깝다고 본다. 연금 영향: 연금이 7% 수익을 못 얻으면 정부 재정 부담이 커질 수 있으며, 일리노이·뉴저지 등 주의 연금 부채 문제가 더 악화될 수 있다고 경고한다. 나스닥 사례: 1997~2000년 버블 때 고점을 찍은 나스닥이 2015년에야 회복되었다는 예를 들어, 고평가 자산은 장기 저수익으로 이어진다고 설명했다. 출연자 전망: 막스 본인이 '현재 버블, 미래 수익률 저하'를 주장한다. 특정 종목 방향 발언은 없다.
다듬은 글
today we're in an everything bubble if he isn't already howard marks is an investor you should be listening to and learning from he is the co-founder and co-chairman of oaktree capital management one of the most highly respected investment firms in his position he has a unique perspective to what's happening in the markets today throughout his career howard marks has never been afraid to share his opinions and honest thoughts about what is happening in the markets that's why it got my attention when i heard him say in a recent interview that we are in a quote everything bubble he's saying the bubble extends far beyond the stock market into real estate and bond markets as well make sure to stick around to the end of the video because i promise that you are going to learn something from this video and howard marks that will make you a better investor and help you build wealth through investing now let's take a listen to hear what howard marx has to say you have spent the better part of your career in fact all of your career although you don't do it hands on the controls so much any longer trying to generate double-digit returns and there was a beautiful but brief few weeks of panic selling in march and april of 2020 but we're back to pre-pandemic lows what's it like for you for oaktree having to put money to work in high yield at spreads of 300 basis points and leveraged loans at spreads of 420 well on a small matter let me just say that i don't think we've ever had a year in which credit losses consumed the yield spread and i i believe that 300 on high yield is adequate to defray the future credit losses uh i think we'll come out that's enough of a premium i think it is and you know i think we'll come out way ahead of the treasury investor after the credit losses are all settled so the the investor buying low grade today yeah isn't going to regret it five years i don't think well there may be some days but i think in the long run they'll earn much more in income than they'll give back in credit losses and come out ahead of the treasury investor that's why we do this but you know i started this at city 43 years ago and so far it's holding has credit i was going to ask you if credit has ever been this uninteresting is that a fair question uh well it is a fair question of course it's never been this unrewarding uh you know and and and two three four years ago people were asking me are we in a high yield bond bubble and i would say no we're in a bond bubble interest rates were low which means that prospective yields were low today we're in an everything bubble you know the stock market is high and uh you know i i noticed in the green room the number that stuck out to me s p 4 400.
last march 2200. it's doubled exactly doubled uh stock prices are high you mentioned that real estate has come back certain sectors are very strong like you know infrastructure real estate uh distribution centers and so forth uh we're in a low return world the lowest returns we've ever seen prospectively and so it's tough on us but it's even tougher on our clients many of our clients pension funds endowments and so forth need seven percent a year how do you get seven percent a year when the fed funds rate is zero it's important to take a brief moment to understand how howard marks and his firm makes money this will help improve your context around his perspective of what's happening in the markets today according to his company's website oak tree capital management is a leading global alternative investment management firm with expertise and credit strategies now that is definitely a lot of financial jargon so i will put it in a more simple way oak tree focuses on investing in distressed companies or put in an even more simple way companies that are struggling to pay their debts and may be headed for bankruptcy or are already there oak tree's business model is focused on making these investments at a discount so once the company turns itself around oaktree and its investors can make a sizable profit obviously there are more of these opportunities when the economy is struggling take a look at this chart that shows the change in the amount of distressed debt outstanding this shows just how crazy the past 12 to 18 months have been for the economy and the markets so now that we have that background let's explain what howard marks means by an everything bubble it's no secret that prices for everything have skyrocketed as howard marks mentioned in the video stock prices have doubled since the march 2020 lows the s p 500 hit a low of around 2200 in march of 2020 and is now hovering above 4 400.
this is the quickest time it has ever taken the stock market to double then there are u.s home prices which has seen the median sale price in the u.s skyrocket nearly 25 and that's just the median price increase some very hot real estate markets like austin texas have seen values go up 40 in the past year this rise in home values is especially dramatic when you consider that the average home value historically has increased around three to five percent a year now that we better understand what howard marks means by an everything bubble let's briefly touch on how we got here over the last 16 months the fed treasury and congress have used huge amounts of money to support subsidize and stimulate workers businesses state and local governments the overall economy and the financial markets this has resulted in confidence in the prospects for a strong economic recovery skyrocketing asset prices and fear of rising inflation in particular the fed triggered the recovery we're enjoying by cutting the key federal funds rate to zero to 0.25 percent initiating loan and grant programs and buying vast amounts of bonds let's listen to what howard marks thinks the fed should do in response to these developments part of the reason stock prices are high and of course interest rates are low it's because of central bank yes monetary policy your latest memo howard is called thinking about macro so i have a macro question for you guys william mcchesney martin famously said it was the fed's job to take the punch bowl away just as the party gets going right if you were jay powell the fed chairman would you be taking the punch ball away now before the party gets out of control you know the the most emphatic thing i want to say is that i am not jay powell i'm i i wouldn't know how to do his job i don't want his job i don't claim to know better i would lean toward leaving the markets alone i talk in the memo about naturally occurring interest rates in other words non-interventionist yes but you know so you might say well then you leave the punch bowl no they have delivered the punch bowl in their activist role and i so i would like to see the punchbowl removed somewhat so that interest rates are what the economy and and the participants want them to be not what the fed wants it to be so you know look they had a hard time raising rates after the global financial crisis and each time they tried they got a tantrum and in early 19 they backed down and i think they missed the opportunity and i wouldn't want to miss the opportunity this time to to raise rates as the economy is very strong now they claim it's not strong enough yet on the job creation side uh but i i would i don't say today but i say let's not miss the opportunity to let rates float back up according to howard marks there is a high consequence of the bubble in asset prices this consequence is the fact that future returns from investments such as stocks bonds and real estate will be lower than they have been historically you may be asking why do high prices for assets such as stocks and real estate mean future returns are going to be lower let's take stocks as an example to demonstrate this and let's particularly focus on the nasdaq an index made up of many technology companies during the tech bubble in the late 1990s the nasdaq index fund was around 1 300 in january of 1997.
then in just over three years the nasdaq shot up to a peak of around 4 600 in february of 2000 more than tripling meaning that investors who had invested in the beginning of 1997 experienced a compounded annual return of more than 50 percent over that three year period with that impressive return how long do you think it took the nasdaq to again reach the peak of around 4 600 that it did in the year 2000 well it wasn't until nearly 2015 that the nasdaq reached those levels again that means if you invested at the top in 2000 you received a zero percent annual return not including dividends for nearly 15 years the nasdaq index was full of stocks that were so overvalued it took nearly 15 years for the underlying fundamentals of those companies to catch up with their valuations as a result investors suffered poor returns for 15 years this is just an example but i hope it helps you better understand the relationship between high asset values now and potentially low future returns a consequence of low future returns is on groups and individuals that rely on investment returns to provide income for retirement mark says this is going to have a huge impact on investors of pension funds in the interview he specifically mentioned that pensions need at least a seven percent return to pay for the retirement benefits for people in their pension plans what happens if instead of the seven percent return the pension funds only receive a four percent return instead if this happens these pension funds would likely not have the ability to pay out the cash payments they promised to retirees and senior citizens if this happens and the pension is a government pension the government would likely have to step in and make up for the difference with a potentially disastrous impact on government budgets underfunded pension liabilities are huge issue for states such as illinois and new jersey and will likely get significant worse if future returns are lower than the 7 percent many pension plans assume this is just one example of the negative impact of lower future returns and as marx points out a consequence of inflated asset valuations in order to get closer to their return targets many pension funds are moving away from having just stocks and bonds in their portfolio and including investments that are generally considered more risky but have higher potential returns such as real estate private equity and venture capital in 1987 when 10-year government bonds which are considered the safest investment out there had interest rates of more than 10 percent it was much easier for pension funds to hit return targets however with the yield on the 10-year currently just at north of one percent u.s government bonds won't help pension plans hit their return targets this is a consequence of the current low interest rate environment another interesting part of this interview is howard marks talking about where we are in the current market cycle a concept outlined in his great book mastering the market cycle take a listen to what marx has to say where does that put us on the famous howard marks chart of market cycles this is very unusual eric normally stock prices go here we are ah right okay well that's that's really the the market cycle with the psychological cycle superimposed on it that's right but there's something else that's important which is the economic cycle usually the economic cycle and the stock market cycle coincide not exactly there are leads and lags but they they move fairly together and the high in the stock market is pretty close to the high in the economy and then the economy turns down and the market does or sometimes the market anticipates it and the economy does today we have high stock prices by anybody's measure not irrationally high relative interest rates but certainly high and we have we're early in the economic cycle that's unusual so you could say well this is this is bad because you know the the economy is still uh you know just the the recovery is nascent and stock prices are already high but you could say well yes stock prices are high but we have a lot of economic growth to come it all depends on how you look at it one of the most important things i learned from howard marks was mentioned in this video i apply this concept in my job as a professional investor and in my own personal investing portfolio that concept is understanding the life cycle of the market and is from his book mastering the market cycle while this video is not sponsored by howard marks even though i wish it was you should 100 read that book if you want to better understand investing take a look at the diagram from this book it explains the psychology behind investing that helps lead to bubbles and crashes in the stock market put simply each of these dots represents a point in time and how the market is feeling and their general attitude towards stocks and investing at that particular moment let's start at the dot on the left titled optimism this is where investors are optimistic about what the future holds next up is excitement this is where people are rushing to invest in this stage it is cool and trendy to be an investor people who have never invested before or cared much about investing are now trying to pick stocks and have heard about their friends and neighbors that have made a lot of money in the market they think well certainly if my neighbor who is dumber than me has made money in stocks i can make even more than him next up is euphoria this is when stock prices are the highest and future prospective returns are the lowest this represents the peak of a bubble despite the recent returns on stocks euphoria is when investing is the riskiest because here is where investors have the most to potentially lose this is where investors think stocks can only go up everyone thinks they are an investing genius because their investment portfolios are substantially up at this point people who just start investing in the past year are calling investors like warren buffett washed up the next stage is denial stock prices fall somewhat and the economy starts to slow down investors are in denial that stock prices can actually decrease and prices for stocks don't always go up then moving to the next stop fear prices for stocks continue to fall investors are fearful as they see their portfolios decrease by 10 or more this is when investors start to think that maybe things won't always be great in the stock market after fear is panic at this stage investors think the stock market is going to be zero and they better get out immediately or they're going to end up broke this is where the term panic selling is created investors are selling stocks for a fraction of what they happily paid for them not too long ago when they thought stocks would continue to go up forever despondency follows panic this is where people view stocks as too risky and don't want to invest at all stocks are at low prices and most investors are down in the dumps about the stock market the next dot is depression somewhere in between the stages of despondency and depression represents the greatest opportunity for investors this is because stock prices are at historical lows and as a result future prospective returns are the highest this is the bottom of the market many investors don't think stocks can actually go up in value or that the economy will ever improve then something miraculous happens things actually start to get a little bit better and that moves us into the next stage hope some investors actually start to think things could potentially improve and stock prices start to increase slightly off the generational lows as things start to improve hope turns into optimism and the cycle repeats itself make sure to subscribe to the channel because it is my goal to make you a better more informed investor if you want to keep up with my personal investments and hear more about my thoughts on the market 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