저자: Kevin · 외국인
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CPI 발표 후 물가 정점 가능성을 언급하며 자신의 과거 판단 오류(318 바닥 조기 판단)를 인정함. 나스닥은 325 부근에서 318을 지지선으로 보고 있음. 연준 발언(Evans, Kashkari)을 해석하며 금리 인상 속도 둔화 기대와 매파적 시각을 함께 전함. 10년물 금리가 높게 유지되면 부동산에 부담이라 보고, 엔비디아·테슬라는 악재 해소 후 반등 가능성(고무줄 효과)을 언급. 달러 숏 포지션 경험도 공유.
다듬은 글
oh my goodness i got myself a fresh sarah doman brew here because boom i hope you're celebrating today but we have three important things to talk about number one i was wrong and i could be wrong again i want to show you something number two the fed responded to today's cpi print already and you got to know about that then i want to show you some stocks and traits that you potentially want to pay attention to which will go through towards the end of the video let's get right into it so look first in january when the nasdaq was at like 353 i said the market probably had 20 percent more downside but i made a mistake i looked at the technicals too heavily and saw a quadruple balance at about 318 on the nasdaq and thought wait a minute no wage price spiral which is still true today and we might be getting that peak inflation in march we did have that decline that later came in april we thought hey maybe that was a sign of the bottom and we had a beautiful bear market rally which uh really just led to some unfortunate additional downside now the reason i'm saying that i was wrong in identifying the bottom i identified it too early 318 was the qqq bottom that i thought uh i kept maybe 20 of my cash aside but i went in pretty dang close to 318.
the truth is i could be wrong again and so i want to be held accountable for that and just be honest with you that i could be perfect with this okay now the good news though is we are now using that 318 level as support we're sitting at 325 now and today's cpi number was going to be what either created that 318 as support or resistance again and clearly with a cpi print the weight came in this morning as such a beautiful miss all of the expectations and the qualified economists were wrong again and inflation comes in outside of expectations but fortunately to the low side we have something beautiful an inflection point and i have to caution you though because this has happened before and this chart might make you sad now on one side you've got a lot of individuals saying hey hey hey way well like this is awesome that's it we've hit peak inflation we're done no more inflationary concerns we are going back to the moon and i really hope that is to be true but hopium is not an investment strategy and this is where we have to be honest with ourselves that we've hit peak inflation previously and that's why this chart here is a little bit disappointing and actually gives credence to a lot of the people who say wait a minute real inflation first of all is way higher than this report and that's probably true but even if we get an inflection in you know the cpi inflation at least it gives us a softer fed and probably means that even if real inflation is twice as high even that might be peaking right but the sad thing about this particular chart here folks is right here is that we have seen this sort of peak before see that green dot there we have been down this road before that was march and then we got a decline in april and then we went higher than march and then we went even higher the next few months and so that's why we have to be real here and recognize that uh-oh just because we got that march peak over there and now we've got ourselves another peak over here which represents june now we just got the july numbers which are thankfully lower over here doesn't mean that we can't go higher now one thing that is very different though from that march peak is that the march peak coincided with break even expectations for inflation way high in fact take a look at this see here these are the march break eve what does the market think inflation is going to do and what's so important about this is that this line tends to move three months before cpi moves and that's really important because if we did hit a peak here in march this was a warning that the actual peak wouldn't really come until three months later which ended up taking four months came in july right uh four months so anyway that's really fascinating and this decline which i'm going to move myself here for a moment this decline is ahead of us which is really really exciting that that decline in breakevens is ahead of us and it is a reason to be optimistic even though 8.5 inflation is still pretty dang high in fact take a look at this this was a reply tweet uh and i want to give a shout out to it because it was kind of funny this reminds me of you i love you bro i love you too man march inflation is 8.5 no terrible and then of course august inflation is 8.5 let's go we're going back to the moon like yeah it kind of is because the reality is the answer here the logic here is that this is the uptrend and then now we're on the potential beginning of the downtrend but again i've told you i've been wrong and i could be wrong again now i do believe maybe i'm biased i probably am because i'm talking about myself here i think i've been a lot more right than i've been wrong for example i literally to the day timed the bottom of the dollar shorting the dollar in fact here on screen is a post that i posted when the dollar was at the bottom talking about how i want to get into what i was calling the great dollar short and how i'm shorting the dollar with options to leverage that a little bit but not margin because i hate margin but that i expect a substantial retracement to the upside uh in in a a dollar short position which would mean the dollar falls right this chart you see here is an inverse right so as it's going down the dollar is actually going up but i am investing expecting the dollar to go down and therefore this chart to go up but anyway these you know there are so many things about our macro economy that say right now this could actually be it this could be peak inflation and we could be wrong like i said been wrong before but we've got energy and commodity prices coming down and it does look like we are seeing a broadening decline of inflation this is great now the fed has responded to this and i think this is important to look at as well in terms of what kind of response we've already gotten because it's going to set up more of the responses this market is going to experience from fedspeak over the next month because keep in mind we now have basically a month of freedom to go play in the stock market without having to worry about a stupid inflationary overhang again and so what the fed says over the next month will matter and so here's what the federal reserve told us this morning right after a quick message from our sponsor and then we'll get into some important picks that i think are critically lagging the market in stocks stay tuned for those i don't know about you guys but i think it's a terrible idea to buy multivitamins out of a bunch of shady additives and that claim they can solve any problem you have hate your job take this your boss will give you a raise and his wife will even kiss you oh bs but thanks to today's sponsor ritual has a transparent and a well-researched solution an extensively researched multivitamin that helps fill the nutritional gaps in a man's diet they show you every ingredient every supplier and every study that goes into their vegan-friendly multivitamin and even for those of us who try really hard to eat a balanced diet there are some nutrients that are just hard to get from food alone for example 70 of men don't get enough vitamin e and up to 97 don't get enough vitamin d and for you obsessive label readers a ritual is a vegan friendly non-gmo certified gluten-free and formulated without any major allergens unlike other subscription-based companies ritual is as easy to start as it is to end it takes about a dollar a day to have essential nutrients delivered straight to your door so go to ritual.com 20 kevin or click the link in the description and use code 20 kevin for 20 off your first month of ritual again that's ritual.com 20 kevin or use the link down below charles evans the president of the chicago fed told us that this report is the first positive report we've seen and he says that look we've tightened monetary policy quite a bit but he does expect that we'll continue to increase rates the rest of the year and into next year in line with the summary of economic projections that the fed gave us which is that we should see 3.4 by the end of the year and somewhere around 3.75 to 4 by the end of 2023 this does set up the stage though that the fed might begin to slow down in fact fed evans goes as far as saying quote i feel like we're in a good place and we can pivot to being more restrictive if inflation gets out of hand in other words as long as we stay on this disinflationary trend we still have high inflation don't forget that it's still a big number right but as long as we continue on the down this inflection down this disinflationary trend the fed can relax a little bit and so what's the bond market doing which the bond market's been pretty dang good at predicting what the fed's going to do the bond market tells us that now we only have a 28 probability of a 75 basis point hike in the september fed meeting which is september 21st relatively still far away about five weeks away that's down from 52 percent just a day ago that means the market has really softened its impression of the fed continuing to spank us around and even though fed evans says we continue to see supply chain challenges and in hindsight we should have raised rates six months earlier he actually expects the second half of the year to be quite positive which is a really interesting note coming from the federal reserve that they're not looking at this market as gloomily as they did back in january or or really december when they began to have their fed flip-flop in fact take a look at this on screen here this right here is a video that i made on january 5th and i wrote the fed just crash stocks the worst report yet and in this report when you actually go through the report you will see and you could look at the most popular timestamps here you will see the most horrible phraseology from the fed yet with how bad this report was it's actually a good lesson to go back and watch that video because it shows you how rough the fed was and how badly they really had to kick us in the behind to make us realize oh crap things are about to be bad it still took me about 16 days to go oh man wait a minute this guy means something for the portfolio but holy smokes when i hear the feds say in fed speak except this expect the second half to be quite positive we're finally getting bullishness from the fed back also fed's kashgari just spoke as i have been recording this video the current updates are that he believes we are far far away from declaring victory on inflation which is of course that because remember they have to talk inflation down that's what they do they move their or their mouths to push down inflation right and he says that he's happier that inflation is surprised to the downside but it doesn't change the rate path expectancy for him he instead believes that we're going to get to 3.9 at the end of this year 4.4 by the end of next year which is a lot more hawkish than what the market is currently pricing in and could set us up for some more downside these sorts of this sort of talking the market down very very very common so be prepared for that kind of stuff to happen in the stock market he does say it's much more realistic that we're going to raise rates and then leave them there until inflation is on its way to two and a half to two percent so this does mean the fed is going to continue on their path so don't hold your breath too terribly much that the fed is ready to u-turn any minute because they ain't and the market so far is taking this commentary from kashkari in stride as this commentary is occurring right now as we watch qqq only slightly rotate to the downside off of highs of the days right now but i want to take this opportunity to talk about some suggestions that i'm seeing in the market it's very very popular for us to get frustrated and i call this the sort of the rising tide fallacy it's very very popular for us to get frustrated when we invest in stocks and then we see everybody else's stocks go up but one thing that happens psychologically is when everybody else's stocks go up it actually starts yanking on the stocks that are left behind and eventually those tend to catapult up which is pretty remarkable and it's a psychological phenomenon but it's also one that's based on valuations right if a house in a neighborhood is selling for 400 000 and all of a sudden five comps sell for 500 well houses of that model selling for 400 are probably going to start rubber banding up and by the way i think if you're not in real estate yet you have some massive opportunities coming up for investing in real estate and this is why as soon as possible you should get into th if you bundle that with bundle one with the stocks in psychology you get my trade ideas like the great dollar short or positioning fundamental analysis which people really really seem to love some of the fundamental analysis uh that we're doing and i'd love to have you in those take a look for example at just the little post that i wrote this morning which relates to this idea of sort of the rubber band look at this so end phase is up 57 here today one of my favorite companies one though that i do believe has some headwinds coming from real estate you've got apple down eight percent year-to-date microsoft 14 amazon 17 google 17 qqq 19.
but look at what's lagging you've got tesla still down 29 year-to-date nvidia down 42 personally i believe both of those could end up being rubber band opportunities that once the bad news is out of the way the twitter overhang the glut of chip supply overhang once that bad news the gaming overhang once that bad news goes out of the way you end up rubber banding to where these others are the same is true in reverse for something like end phase which in my opinion has run too much is likely to get rubber banded down it's not in a position that i really want to buy it right now though it is very difficult to shorten this market because when you take this sort of basket and the macro economy is driving everything up even something that fundamentally is overvalued can still go up and so that is another risk factor and of course i encourage you to use the coupon code because yeah look i know the coupon code's expired the price goes up over time as we add more value so you get the best deal when you join early and any new content for the courses is coming free to those courses in fact we've got huge plans for expanding the real estate course to some new topics that'll be really fun updates coming to the property management course updates coming for more fundamental analysis in the stocks course which we do every day in the live streams which i highly encourage you take advantage of those live streams on average get somewhere between four to seven thousand views every day and there's a reason they do is because there's really good fundamental analysis in there and even though i might not trade on every single move there are a lot of lessons that you could learn from them so i do also want to shout out that if you haven't yet followed me on twitter you could do so and you can get some great responses and commentary like this see this morning i wrote we're going back to the moon baby this is it i've got my sarah dolmen brew and we're ready to rock of course the emperor replied with he's going to regret this tweet to which i replied your mom will and then of course there are responses like this the excessive bullishness in terrible macro conditions probably won't work out best cpi is likely manipulated and real inflation is obviously much higher the whole rally is a retail trap at least tell people there's a lot of downside risk well that is what i think i'm doing in this video is that a i could be wrong right uh b i think that there are other downside risks i'll tell you what the biggest downside risks are right now the biggest downside risks are the following a slow decline in cpi where cpi goes down but then it like levels off at like eight and then the fed's like okay i guess we have to hike more to actually get it to go down more right so even though cpi could go down if it goes down too slowly that's a risk we could see an earnings recession and even though bank of america tells us that even poorer individuals are still spending as much money or are still spending more money now than they did last year we still have spending growth we could end up having an earnings recession however we could see a tale of two cities event here where some stocks do poorly and others do very very well and that is going to be predicted or predicated rather by earnings uh but also then we have like i think more new more like um edge case scenario dangers like world war three right taiwan keeps complaining about increasing tensions between china and the worst aggressiveness that we've seen since the 90s and even japan is complaining that china is dropping bombs in their exclusive economic zone as uh training missiles you know these are things that increase tensions but really i think if anything they'd create an opportunity for for buying and being in this market i've bought more the last few days and really i'm i'm a big fan of at these levels i'm ready to ride and i'm ready to run with you so uh that's very important now i did have one other question that came up and it was a question about qt my thoughts on uh what about a q a t well so regarding quantitative tightening something to know about this is yes it can restrict the supply of money that is outstanding which can reduce pressure buying pressure on stocks it could also increase selling pressure on stocks although a lot of institutions are sitting pretty cash heavy right now so once we confirm a bottom and that the bear market that this is not a bear market rally we would expect more institutional cash to flow in but qut is really interesting mostly in my opinion for keeping that the treasury yields high uh and high would be like 2.7 percent on the 10-year or something like that which does put more downside pressure on the real estate market so qt in my opinion quantitative tightening is the rolling off of treasury bonds and the selling potentially of mortgage-backed securities don't worry if you don't know what any of that means basically qt in my opinion is likely to keep treasure yields higher and i think it has the biggest overhang on real estate not necessarily the biggest overhang on stocks which i did spend about two and a half to three hours this morning again working on more documents for our attorneys for our series a that's coming up course members will have the first opportunity to invest in the series a and if we have any kind of warrants that go along with that first investment which is like a free call option uh which which we might end up doing tbd this is not a solicitation this is just sort of teasing what's going on in my life uh then then course members will get uh the the biggest uh share of those or biggest benefit of those at least that's the expectation of how we're structuring things now but folks we're really really excited to buy real estate so uh you should be buckling up and at least get educated on real estate just make sure you stay away from two things in my opinion i don't think you directly want to invest in a syndication indirectly could be different you know if like a company you're investing in to syndication separately but you get like the promoter fees i think that's okay uh i am not a big fan of reits because i like investing in companies that can reinvest cash flow and build wealth even more for the company and shareholders uh and i do think the worst thing you can do in this environment either way is flipping so i would really caution against flipping in this market look for good deals hot maybe even get into short-term rentals but remember short-term rentals or a job and take time and work all right folks thank you so much for being here appreciate you love ya you
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