저자: WarrenBuffett·CharlieMunger · 외국인
요약 보기
소액 자본으로 투자를 시작한다면 어떻게 할지에 대한 질문에 대한 답변이다. 결론: 소액이면 작은 종목 중심의 집중 투자가 유리하며, 최선의 대안(기회비용)을 기준으로 모든 투자를 판단해야 한다. 버핏은 1956년 첫 파트너십을 설립했던 경험을 언급하며, 당시라면 증권 투자를 했을 것이고 한국 시장에 거의 100% 집중했을 것이라고 밝혔다. 좋은 아이디어는 자주 나오지 않으므로 저평가되고 이해할 수 있는 종목을 기다려야 한다고 강조했다. 소액 투자는 대형 기업 인수보다 작은 증권 종목이 적합하다. 작은 포트폴리오에서는 작은 종목도 의미 있는 영향을 줄 수 있기 때문이다. 명성이 없는 소액 투자자는 사업체 인수에서 성공하기 어렵다. 멍거는 버핏의 말이 대체로 맞다고 동의하며, 20% 수익을 내는 단 하나의 투자처를 찾아 40년간 방치한다는 생각은 현실성이 없다고 했다. 이해할 수 있는 최선의 대안을 찾고, 그것을 기준(기회비용)으로 나머지를 평가해야 한다고 말했다. 현대 포트폴리오 이론은 이런 현실을 반영하지 못한다고 비판했다. 대부분의 사람은 동등하게 좋은 수천 개의 투자처를 찾지 못하며, 몇 개의 뛰어난 기회를 찾아 집중하는 것이 올바른 투자 방식이라고 정리했다.
다듬은 글
My name's Simon Dennison-Smith from the UK. My question is this, if you were starting out today with a million dollars, with a vision of building a business with 20% average growth in value over 40 years, what type of investments and investment strategy would you look to make in the first 5 years? Well, it somewhat interesting that uh we formed the first partnership 50 years ago last 2 days ago, Thursday, and May 4th, 1956, which was 105,000.
Uh That's my sister clapping. She would She was in the partnership. They uh uh we would if Charlie and I were starting all over again and we were in this, Charlie would say we shouldn't be doing this, but but uh if we if we were to succumb to Satan and engage in same kind of activity, we would uh I think be doing something very similarly.
We were investing in securities, we would look around the world, and we would look at a Korea, and Charlie says you can't find 20 of them, but you don't have to find 20 of them. You only have to find you only have to find one really. And they You do not have to have tons of good ideas in this business.
You just have a good idea that's worth a ton occasionally. And in securities, we would we would be doing the same thing, which would probably mean smaller stocks. It would mean smaller stocks because we would find things that could have an impact uh on a small portfolio that will have no impact on a portfolio size of Berkshire.
Uh if we were trying to buy businesses, we'd have a tough time. Um we would have no reputation. Uh so, people would not be coming to us. Um we'd be too small a player if you're talking about a million dollars. So, we we would not have much success, I don't think, with small amounts buying businesses.
Charlie started out, you know, in real estate development because it took very, very little capital, and you could magnify brain power and energy uh uh or I should say brain power and energy could magnify some small amounts of capital in a huge way that was not true in securities. Um you know, my natural inclination was to look at securities and and just kind of do it one foot in front of the other over time.
Uh uh but the basic principles wouldn't be different. Uh you know, I think if I'd been running a partnership a couple of years ago with a small amount of money, I think I'd have probably been 100% in Korea. And uh you know, I would be looking around for something that was very mispriced and which I and and that I understood.
And every now and then that's going to happen. Charlie? Well, I agree with that. The concept that you're likely to find just one thing where it'll make 20% per annum and you just sit back for the next 40 years, that tends to be dreamland. And in the real world, you you have to find something that you can understand that's the best you have available.
And uh and once you found the best thing, then you measure everything against that because it's your opportunity cost. That's the way small sums of money should be invested. And the trick, of course, is is getting enough expertise that your opportunity cost, meaning your default option, which is still pretty good, is very high.
And so, the the game hasn't changed at all in terms of its basic arithmetic. That's why modern portfolio theory is so asinine. The It really is, folks. Yeah. You when Warren said he would have been all in one country, that's pretty close to close to right. He wouldn't have quite done that when he had the partnership, but he would have been way more concentrated than is conventional if you listen to modern portfolio theory.
Most people aren't going to find thousands of things that are equally good. They're going to find a few things where one or two of them are way better than anything else they know. And uh and the right way to think about investing is to act thinking about your best opportunity cost. Number nine? It's in the freshman course in economics everywhere in the basic textbook.
It just had a hasn't made its way into modern portfolio theory. We don't get asked to do book reviews.
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