저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
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Marc Faber는 세계 경제 둔화가 뚜렷하며 기업 실적이 실망스러울 가능성이 높다고 보고, 단기적으로는 과매도로 인한 반등이 있을 수 있으나 대부분 주식이 신고가를 경신하기는 어렵고 주요 지수는 이미 고점을 찍었다고 진단한다. 그는 1987년급 폭락(하루 21%, 10일 내 20%)은 현재 예상하지 않지만 주식 중 다수가 50% 하락할 수 있으며, 향후 2년간 주식 투자로 돈을 벌기 어렵다고 본다. 채권 시장과 관련해 연준의 긴축과 대차대조표 축소, 트럼프 재정적자 확대로 장기금리 상승 압력이 있으며 10년물 3.2%는 절대적으로 매력적이지 않다고 평가한다. 주식과 채권의 관계는 과거에도 엇갈렸기 때문에 확실히 말할 수 없다고 한다. 중앙은행 개입 가능성으로 연준의 플런지 프로텍션 팀이나 재무부의 주식 매입 가능성을 언급하며, 주식이 추가로 15% 더 떨어져 고점 대비 20% 하락하면 연준이 금리 인상을 멈추고 인하할 수 있다고 본다. 달러는 단기적으로 더 강해질 수 있으나 연준의 금리 인상 중단과 연말~내년 초 양적완화 가능성으로 결국 상당히 약해질 것으로 예상한다. 귀금속은 올해 달러 기준 7% 하락했지만 상대적으로 선방했으며, 금리 인상이 더 이어지지 않으면 금과 은이 매력적인 투자 수단이고 강세장에서는 은이 금을 상회할 것이라고 본다.
다듬은 글
mark thank you so much for joining us today it's my pleasure thank you all right now the first topic I'd like to discuss is the stock market now around the world we saw just a couple weeks ago stock the stock markets sell off quite a bit in the United States the Dow right now is down over 1,500 points from its high my question to you is what is your perspective on this why do you see it why do you see it happening and do you see it sell off continuing in the United States and around the world yes I think uh everybody would like to know whether after this correction which is not very substantial in comparison to previous Corrections whether after this correction it's a buying opportunity or whether investors should sell or reduce their positions on any rebound my sense is that uh the world's economy is slowing down meaningfully we have lots of announcements by uh economic sensitive companies whether these are multinational uh German automobile manufacturers or industrial companies that serve uh numerous markets around the world like Techron and so for the announcements have been guiding on the downside and uh it's obvious that the Chinese economy is slowing down and I'm an economist but I also look at what is happening around me I can say that there is a Slowdown in economic activity everywhere everywhere I go to so I'd say that uh corporate profits will likely disappoint at the time when valuations of their high and at the time when Global liquidity is tightening so my view would be yes maybe there will be a rebound on a very shortterm basis we're oversold but we're nowhere near as oversold as we were in say February 2016 that was the last big correction from where the bull market continued to Roar but uh we are oversold on a short-term basis and we can rebound somewhat the seasonal strength between now and early next year but uh I doubt that the majority of shares will make new highs uh maybe a few shares will make new Highs but uh my sense is that the indices of most markets around the world they' peaked out already now last time we had you on you were talking about how you thought it was unlikely that a major crash was going to happen anytime soon but more like a slow uh grinding down in a sense of the stock markets around the world um what is your perspective a lot of people I'm talking about is are saying that they're looking for a more than 50% crash sometime soon it doesn't seem like that's what you're looking for right now well I would not rule out that uh a large number of stocks will drop by 50% don't forget large number of stocks have already dropped by 30 40% so 50% is not not out of the ordinary but I'd say this uh I went through the 87 crash we dropped by 21% in just one day that is a crash or if you crash within uh 10 days by 20% or 15% that is kind of a crash I don't expect that right now I think that uh central banks will come back in and ease monetary conditions and so forth so I don't see a collapse but I think over the next two years uh investors will not make any money in equities as by the way most investors have not made any money over the last 12 months some stocks have gone up but if you look at Global Market uh with the exception of the US and maybe one or two other markets all of them are in the red so I think that the situation for investors is not very conducive to its large capital gains iron think that uh most investors who have a diversified portfolio we lose money the question is how much and that will depend on what kind of stocks they own now moving our Focus to this uh bond market we've recently seen 10e the 10-year treasury yield at its highest point since 2011 what is your perspective on why bonds are moving or are um in a downturn right now um and where do you see them heading in the near future well the Federal Reserve has been tightening monetary conditions and increasing interest rates since December 2015 and starting about a year ago the Fed started to reduce its balance sheet in other words uh they didn't buy additional bonds uh but they actually sold bonds and as a result of that they reduced the balance sheet uh this combined with let's say some symptoms of inflation have led Bond buyers to stay away so in other words the supply of bonds is very large because as you know under the Trump policies we have essentially unlimited uh budget deficits fiscal deficits and we have reduced demand which pushes up in rates I think that uh compared to equities 10 years treasuries are now relatively attractive relatively but they're not AB absolutely attractive because the yield is not like 5 6% but it's 3.2% right and when investors you know start realizing this how do you see the Dynamics between the stock market and the bond market really playing out well to tell you the truth nobody knows for sure there were periods in the last 100 years when bond yields went up and stocks continued to rally and there were periods in the last 100 years when bom deals went up in other words interest rates went up and stock prices declined both has happened so if you ask me today well what will happen to the bond market what will happen to the stock market we don't know for sure we can make certain assumptions but we don't know for sure because the markets are being manipulated by central banks and speaking of that some concrete ways in which central banks are you know affecting the stock market obviously um or affecting markets in general obviously you know the fed's policy is to control interest rates so that's a very obvious way there um but also Japan and Switzerland have you know been buying equities what is your perspective if we see another crisis where there's a significant drop in the stock market um do you think other central banks and even the FED might step in to prop up the market by buying equities well that's a good question because basically to buy equities is not the Mandate but as you know the Federal Reserve has a so-called plunge Protection Team and to what extent it would be used in a further significant ific sell of inequities who knows these are all things you and I we don't know we only can make certain assumption uh my assumption is that the Federal Reserve uh and especially the Trump Administration does not want a stock market that collapses so what the interventions will be we don't know for sure maybe the FED will not come in but uh what can happen is that the treasury Department would uh essentially buy equities that is a possibility and what specifically do you think that would look like the treasury buying equities how how would that happen well basically it's quite simple the treasury could essentially uh borrow money and use that money to buy equities now if they borrow money then obviously the deficit goes up but then the FED may ease monetary conditions you understand so indirectly the FED has of course an influence on uh essentially the government purchasing equities but it may not happen and it may happen my sense is if the market here the stock market drops another 15% in other words we would be down by 20% Peak to St the Federal Reserve will no longer increase rates and it may very well start to lower rates once again you mentioned how the last thing the Trump Administration wants is a falling stock market and also last time we had you on you were talking about the one of the last things the Trump Administration wants is a strong dollar now we had you back on in April you said we might see a strong dollar um in the short term um you know ever since then it's the dollar has just gotten stronger so can you give us an update on this and what do you see happening to the dollar uh going forward yes the dollar has been uh basically very strong uh will it continue who knows because that depends also on policies in Western Europe and in Japan but for now I agree the dollar has been strong on fundamentals personally I do not think that the dollar should be strong but uh there all kinds of views you know they say well the dollar is not a good currency but the others are even worse so these are things that are very difficult to predict I personally we think that the dollar May strengthen somewhat more but eventually I think the dollar will weaken considerably as the FED given the economic weakness that is developing and very clearly developing that the FED will no longer increase rates and may embark on uh quantitative easing sometimes towards the end of the year or early next year and in that case I think the US dollar could become very weak now moving our Focus to the last topic I'd like to discuss precious metals um last time we had you on you were talking about how you're bullish on precious metals especially silver you see has a greater upside um we've seen a little we've seen uh precious metals stay pretty um constant they have just risen in the past couple weeks a bit do you think precious metals have bottomed and also are you still more bullish on Silver well the thing is uh precious metals this year in US Dollars are down 7% okay so it's not exactly a strong performance but they're still up compared to 1999 and compared to December 2015 so it hasn't been a disaster moreover this year most European and Asian markets are down more than 7% in dollar terms so whoever says gold is horrible as an investment it hasn't done well but it's done better than the majority of foreign markets and the majority of Commodities so I think that that the performance is not a disaster but I think uh given what I just told you that eventually the FED will not increase rates much further and will eventually cut them I think uh gold and silver are relatively attractive investment vehicles definitely and regarding gold versus silver are you still seeing that silver has a greater potential upside yes in Bull markets for precious metals silver tends to shine in know outperform gold but as I said uh we don't know exactly when this turn will come and when precious metals will take off because the dollar strength uh precious metals have less use for investors for the time being but the moment the dollar weakens I think that lots of people will be interested in gold and silver and also Platinum all right well Mark Faber from the Gloom boom and doom report thank you so much for joining
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