저자: Special Economic · 외국인
다듬은 글
it's my pleasure thank you all right now the first topic I'd like to discuss is the stock market now around the world that we saw just a couple weeks ago stock the stock markets sell off quite a bit in the United States the Dow right now is down over fifteen hundred points from its high my question to you is what is your perspective on this why do you see it why do you see it happening and do you see a sell-off continuing in the United States and around the world yes I think everybody would like to know where after this correction which is not very substantial in comparison to previous Corrections where after this correction it's a buying opportunity or whether investors should sell or reduce their positions on any rebound my time is that the world economy is slowing down meaningfully we have lots of announcements by economic sensitive companies where it is our multinational German automobile manufacturers or industrial companies that serve numerous markets around the world like Textron and traverse the announcements have been guiding on the downside and it's obvious that the Chinese economy is slowing down and I'm an economist but I also look at what is happening around me I can say that there is a slowdown in economic activity everywhere every where I go to so I'd say that corporate profit will likely disappoint at the time when valuations are very high and at the time when global liquidity tightening so my view would be yet maybe there will be a rebound on a very short term date is we're oversold but we're nowhere near as a result as we were in a February 2016 that was the last big correction from where the bull market continued to roar but we are oversold on a short-term basis and we can rebound somewhat the season of strength between now and early next year but I doubt that the majority of shares will make new eyes maybe a few shares will make new eyes but my sense is that the indices of most markets around the world they seeked out already now last time we had you one you were talking about how you thought it was unlikely that a major crash was going to happen anytime soon but more like a slow grinding down in a sense of the stock markets around the world what is your perspective a lot of people I'm talking about is are saying that they're looking for a more than 50% crash sometime soon it doesn't seem like that's what you're looking for right now well I would not rule out that a large number of stocks will drop by 50% don't forget the large number of stocks have already dropped by 30 40 percent so 50% is not not out of the ordinary but I'd say this I went through the 87 crash we dropped by 21% in just one day that is a crash or if you crash within 10 days by 20% of 15% that is kind of a crash I don't expect that right now I think that central banks will come back in and ease monetary conditions and the worst so I don't see a collapse but I think all the next two years investors will not make any money in equities as by the way most investors have not made any money over the last 12 months some stocks have gone up but if we look at global markets with the exception of the US and maybe one or two other markets all of them are in the right so I think that the situation for investors is not very conducive to it large capital gains I rather think that most investors who have a diversified portfolio will lose money so the question is how much and that will depend on what kind of stocks they own now moving our focus to this bond market we've recently seen a tenure the 10-year Treasury yield at its highest point since 2011 what is your perspective on why bonds are moving or are in a downturn right now and where do you see them heading in the near future well the Federal Reserve have been tightening monetary conditions and increasing interest rate since December 2015 and starting about a year ago the Fed started to reduce its balance sheet in other words they didn't buy additional bonds but they actually sold bonds and as a result of that they reduced the balance sheet this combined with let's say some symptoms of inflation have led bond tyres to stay away so knows the supply of bonds is very large because as you know under the Trump policies we have essentially unlimited budget deficits fiscal deficits and we have reduced demand which pushes up interest rates I think that compared to equities ten years Treasuries are now relatively attractive relatively but they're not ab-absolutely attractive because the yield is not like five six percent but it's three point two percent radian when investors you know start realizing this how do you see the dynamics between the stock market of the bond market really playing out well to tell you the truth nobody knows for sure they were period in the last hundred years when bond yields went up and stocks continued to rally and they were in the last hundred years when bond yield went up the North's interest rates went up and stock prices declined bose has happened so if you ask me today well what will happen to the bond market what will happen to the stock market we don't know for sure we can make certain assumptions but we don't know for sure because the market are being manipulated by central bank and speaking of that some concrete ways in which central banks are you know affecting the stock market obviously or affecting markets in general obviously you know the feds policy is to control interest rates so that's a very obvious way there but also Japan and Switzerland have mean I've been buying equities what is your perspective if we see another crisis where there's a significant drop in the stock market do you think other central banks and even the Fed might step in to prop up the market by buying equities well that's a good question because basically to buy equities is not the mandate but as you know the Federal Reserve has a so called plunge Protection Team and to what extent it will be used in a further significant sell-off in equities who knows these are all things you and I we don't know we all we can make certain assumption my assumption is that the Federal Reserve depreciated from administration does not want a stock market that collapses so what the interventions will be we don't know for sure maybe the state will not come in but what can happen is that the Treasury Department would essentially buy equities that is a possibility and what specifically do you think that would look like the Treasury buying equities how how would that happen well basically it's quite simple the Treasury could essentially borrow money and use that money to buy equities now if they borrow money then obviously the deficit goes up but then the Fed may ease monetary conditions unison so indirectly the Fed has of course an influence on a concede government purchasing equities but it may not happen it may happen my sentence is to market here the stock market drops another fifteen percent in other words we would be down by 20 percent peak to stroke the Federal Reserve will no longer increase rate and it may very well start to lower rate once again you mentioned how the last thing the Trump administration wants is a falling stock market and also last time we had you on you were talking about that one of the last things the Trump administration wants is a strong dollar now we had you back on in April you said we might see a strong dollar in the short term you know ever since then it's the dollar has just gotten stronger so can you give us an update on this and what do you see happening to the dollar going forward yes the dollar has been basically very strong will continue who knows who's that depends also on policies in Westham Europe and in Japan but for now I agree that a lot in strong on some the mental personally I do not think that the dollar should be strong but there are all kinds of views you know they say well the dollar is not a good currency but the others are even worse so these are things that are very difficult to predict I personally think that the dollar they strengthen somewhat more but eventually I think the dollar will weaken considerably as the Fed given the economic weakness that is developing and very clearly developing that the Fed will no longer increase rate and may embark on quantitative easing sometimes to it the end of the year or early next year and in that case I think the US dollar could become very weak now moving our focus to the last topic I'd like to discuss precious metals last time we had you one you were talking about how you're bullish on precious metals especially silver you see has a greater upside we've seen a little we've seen precious metals stay pretty constant they have just risen in the past couple weeks a bit do you think precious metals have bottomed and also are you still more bullish on silver well the thing is precious metals this year in US dollars are down 7% okay so it's not exactly a strong performance but still up compared to 1999 and compared to December 2015 so it hasn't been a disaster moreover this year most European and Asian markets are down more than seven percent in dollar terms so whoever says gold is horrible as an investment it hasn't done well but it's done better than the majority of foreign markets and the majority of commodities so I think that the performance is not a disaster but I think even what I just told you that eventually the Fed will not increase rates much further and will eventually cut them I think gold and silver are relatively attractive investment vehicles definitely in regarding gold versus silver are you still seeing that silver has a greater potential upside yet in bull markets for precious metals silver tends to shine in order to outperform gold but as I said we don't know exactly when this turn will come and when precious metals will take off because the dollar strength precious metals have less use for investors for the time being at the moment the dollar weakens I think that lots of people will be interested in gold and silver and also platinum all right well Marc Faber from the gloom boom and doom report thank you so much for joining
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