저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
Marc Faber는 미중 무역전쟁이 실제 전면전으로 번지기보다는 미국이 잃을 것이 더 많아 완화될 가능성이 크다고 봤다. 아시아 수출에서 미국 의존도는 과거보다 크게 낮아졌고, 중국이 대부분 아시아 국가의 최대 교역 상대가 되었다고 설명했다. 달러는 단기적으로 한두 달 강세를 보일 수 있으나 결국 약세로 돌아설 것으로 전망했다. 미국 행정부 입장에서 강달러는 경쟁력에 불리하기 때문이다. 주식시장은 2008년 1월 고점(S&P 약 2872) 대비 약 200포인트 낮은 수준이며, 급락보다는 1969~1982년처럼 완만한 하락과 반등이 반복되는 시나리오가 더 가능하다고 봤다. 장기적으로 S&P500이 금 대비 크게 underperform할 수 있으나 당장은 아니며, 수년이 걸릴 수 있다고 언급했다. 현재 투자자들은 주식과 암호화폐에 쏠려 있다. 자산 인플레이션이 계속될 것이라는 믿음에 의문을 제기하며, 부채 문제를 근거로 자산가격이 크게 폭락하는 디플레이션 가능성을 언급했다. 금은 다른 자산보다 덜 하락하거나 오를 수 있다고 봤다. 암호화폐에 대해서는 대부분(약 92~98%)이 결국 가치가 없어질 것이라며 회의적이었고, 비트코인은 가격 조작 의혹과 소수 보유 집중 문제를 지적했다. 태국 치앙마이 등에서 일반인들이 암호화폐에 몰리는 것을 경고 신호로 봤다. 금과 은 중에서는 기술적 지표상 은의 상승 잠재력이 더 크다고 봤으며, 본인은 1980년대 말부터 금을 꾸준히 매수해 왔고 물리적 금을 스위스와 아시아에 보유하고 있다고 밝혔다. 금 관련 주식도 일부 보유 중이며 약 30% 상승 여력을 언급했다. 출연자 전망: 금·은 선호, 주식 장기 약세 가능성, 달러 단기 강세 후 약세, 암호화폐 회의적.
다듬은 글
Hey the first topic I'd like to discuss is the China and US trade war that seems to be developing what is your perspective do you think it can get worse from here in a real trade war actually will develop well I doubt that we'll get as far as a real trade war because I believe that US will realize that actually it has more to lose in China for China the exports to the US are meaningful but they're not as important as they would have been 40 years ago when I went to Hong Kong in 1973 until the end of the 1980s the saying was if America sneezes Asia catches a cold because up to 70 percent of Asian exports went to the US directly or indirectly but this is no longer the case nowadays is Asia the largest trading partners are actually Asian countries all Asian countries export more to China then to the US with the exception of India and globally China exports more to commodity producers and to countries that have a free trade agreement with China then to the US so the u.s.
is still an important trading partner but it's no longer the most important trading partner this is more of a short-term question there's a lot of people out there who are US dollar bullish at least in the short term medium term I think there's going to be a rebound I know last year the value 10 percent versus other large trade and fiat currencies do you see any any type of rebound on the XY you're so wide potentially well there have been a big long position in euros and the short position in u.s.
dollars in recent weeks and obviously just to talk about the trade or lead to essentially that dollar strengthening but I don't think these things will last very long when you think about it the US under mr. Trump would actually like to make America great again he wants to make America more competitive some is complaining about the weakness of other currencies in the world you know those that in his view the dollar is too strong compared to other currencies in the world I'm not sure he can think that far but anyway that is the implication so the last thing the US administration won today is to have a strong dollar you know that makes the US even less competitive so I think that the dollar may strengthen maybe for another month or two and then eventually weaken again as it becomes obvious that the other countries with or without tariffs or a trade war remain very competitive now as for the stock market do you believe that asian stocks or specifically chinese stocks are you more bullish on them the u.s.
sucks yes in the very long run but I think if we I believe we've seen hi for the US stock market and global market essentially on January 26 2008 in which the S&P a 2872 we're now approximately 200 points lower than we were at the time now the market is unlikely to crash in my opinion but what could easily happen is a market decline as we had between 1969 and 1982 we didn't collapse in those days although we had a major pair market between January 1973 and December 7th for almost two years but we didn't have really a crash it was just sliding a slope of hope where markets would go down and then rebound and they would go down it's lower than the rebound and go down even more and so much I think that may be a scenario that may unfold I'm looking at a chart that has the gold ratio for discuss from 69 to 1982 click it looks like you know the dow gold ratio back then it reached a point about 1.4 so at the peak in January 1980 the Dow obviously is not the greatest measure of the stock market because it's 30 rotating companies that it changed out all the time depending on how well they're doing I think GE is the only one that still around from the original inception of the it's been a terrible stock that's true but I'm just looking even the S&P 500 gold ratio you know right an hour around just two or style roughly S&P versus gold but in 1980 hit point two so if we went back to a situation where it was like 1980 that's a ten multiple of gold versus you know that's impeach 500 do you foresee that happening what's saying 2020 possibly is that attention to something that could be the peak of this well I could easily foresee that happening again in the sense that the S&P would roughly underperform gold in the years to come that wouldn't surprise me at all and but the point is it may not happen right away I think it may happen in future so you may take maybe a few years until we're there because the belief right now among investors is very strongly geared towards equities globally and especially towards among young investors it's geared to it's cryptocurrency at the moment gold and silver are not particularly popular among young investors but I think this will change especially when a major fraud will be revealed in the crypto space that people will lose faith in kryptos as a store of value and that they will again buy gold I mean my advice is I don't know when gold will go up I suppose it will go up relative to other assets now there is one point I need to clarify here everybody thinks that asset inflation as we had a century since 1980 he won four balls from released in 1981 September 81 and equities August 82 equities rallied over the last 34 years real estate prices went up art prices went up collectibles went up indoors so people and investors are conditioned that this will continue they may have some arguments about which I have to perform my best but they think that this asset of inflation will continue but I'd like to introduce an element where maybe all access will go down and gold would go down far less than other access or maybe even increased in value that is a possibility deflation air is not necessarily about a huge price deflation but I'm talking here about a huge asset inflation where asset prices really tanked that is a possibility because don't forget and this is a subject that is not discussed all that much with normal towards the end of a polo market the subject of debt has taken a back set in others yeah people mentioned the government debt but then they argue well it's so large already and so far it hasn't caused that it habits you can explain much further and the Fed can expand its solution much further so that these things is what people believe that may in fact not help after crisis in fact they lady 5 that it rises can you expand on why you see cryptocurrencies falling in the future and people moving out of that space well I didn't say they will fall my sense is that I as a citizen have no idea what these cryptocurrency should be worse I've really no idea it's a little bit like you and I we would print a new currency or a new bank note say cipher dollop banknote or one milliliter systolic I wrote over dot and we would restrict the number of pills that we would print to say a million or ten million or 20 million whatever and our neighbor seeing that we were able to sell these freshly printed banknotes he such a great idea I started my own printing machines difference also something like new paper currency and so on and so forth and the crystal craze has created now more than 1,500 different crypto currencies and whether they will all be worth anything taxes estate questions I have my reservations about that now can the one or the other have some value yeah maybe but I don't know what the value will be and if I have no idea what the value will be I'm not terribly interested to iterate a large amount of money in this concept yeah I'm not sure if you familiar the father I think there was an academic study about Mount God's and the price of Bitcoin going from $150 to $1,000 and it's you can google it I think it's called a price manipulation in the Bitcoin ecosystem and so long acronym to study about the data and no one was you know except for the people who ran out god no one got indicted for this so my hunch is that Bitcoin traders were just simply emboldened and if you look at the concentration of who owns bitcoins there's only a thousand or so alone about 40% of the Bitcoin in the world so for them to collude together and ramp the price up and down and make money in futures now on the comics it's possible to make money both ways invasion I don't know how much it would be worth and what I can what I have observed however and that should be a warning signal I have a house here in the north of Thailand specifically in Chiang Mai and Chiang Mai is a city that consists smoke mostly of people who have no share ownership they never owned the single bomb they never trade for exchange and just a few maybe you know like a handful of people that I would know that occasionally trade stocks but the bulk of people don't have any interesting stocks have no money to buy stocks and horses on they if they have money they will buy a house but all these people over the last say one year people who never speculate it they are now all involved in cryptocurrency and this is not just happening here in Chiang Mai I get emails from people in the Sony argot some people in Hungary and so us in Korea in China everywhere in Japan they all gamble on this crypto and whenever the public is so fully involved in one object of speculation it's always a warning signal but anyway the future will tell I don't want to say anything negative about crystals I don't want to say anything positive I think the blockchain technology is here to stay but it's not new this was developed short and I have no idea about the end value of crystals I suppose that 92 98 percent of crypto currency will be worthless but maybe the one or the other will have some value now moving on here you said you're on it if I heard you're right you're bullish on gold and you think that people will move into gold and silver what is your perspective on which is better gold or silver from my technical indicators I was I think silver had probably the greater upside potential but I'd like to qualify my Polishness by saying I have been buying gold since the late 1980s most of the gold I bought was around $300 an ounce and I continued to die during the Polo market between 1999 and 2011 and I continued to buy I've never sold an ounce of gold for me the price where is Hiroko slower or higher doesn't change my lifestyle but I want to have some reserves that are not in paper form and I hold some gold in Switzerland and some here in Asia dr.
father's to drill down on that for a minute is there a specific type of gold bully and they prefer I assume you know believe yeah I all physical gold yet and some physical but it in coin form like Krueger and or they are some coins issued by credit risks or so so these are type of eccentric pure gold investment investments I also got out some gold shares yes but not much but it hasn't happened yet I think they are again in a range from which they could have say a 30% upside move
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