저자: Kevin · 외국인
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테슬라·애플 주식분할 이후 급등 랠리를 과열로 보고 20~30% 조정 가능성을 경고. 대신 현금 보유 및 지수형 포트폴리오로 분산, 저가 재매수 기회를 기다리자는 입장. 애보트 랩스 $5 자가진단 키트 발표를 계기로 코로나 회복주(항공·크루즈·외식·레저 등) 비중을 소폭(약 5%) 늘렸고, 과잉 부채 리스크를 강조. 마진 사용은 위험하므로 증거금 한도(엠원 35%) 내 제한, 현금 대기 전략 제시.
다듬은 글
this video on making money is brought to you by courses on making money which are stocks and making youtube videos are all available use that coupon code before it expires in just a few days hey everyone me kevin here this is my stock portfolio these are the actual amounts of shares that i own for the stocks listed on this screen now it doesn't show you everything but it does show you that i own a lot of tesla and apple shares and folks i have some concerns that i want to talk about regarding the stock split for tesla and apple and in this video we're going to talk about three big things number one we're going to talk about tesla and the apple stock split then number two i'm going to talk about recovery stocks and abbott labs new test and my strategy around these number three i'm going to talk about my stock margin strategy i'm going to tell you everything i think and what i'm doing with stocks right now remember by the way if you like stocks then you'll probably also like two free stocks from weeble they are ending the two free stock promotion this monday so make sure you deposit 100 with weeble and get your two free stocks before that promotion ends first let's talk about apple and tesla on a daily basis i get emails like this folks and it drives me mad i get emails like this quote i'm a new investor i'm trying to deposit my money into m1 finance i'm hoping to get my money in before the tesla apple stock split am i too late to buy i really think they're going to go up after the stock split sincerely and then the person who emailed me like these these are real emails and dms and comments that i'm seeing there is a really heavy belief in existence right now that a stock split is somehow good for the fundamentals of a company a stock split as many of us watching this video probably already know does absolutely nothing for the fundamentals of a company it does nothing however apple and tesla despite this doing nothing have shot up like crazy over just the last two weeks and when i say shot up like crazy here take a look at the ipad and look at it with me this is tesla just since august 11th through august 28th just 17 days here tesla has gone up 839 points or 61 and you know what's kind of creepy about that is following this kind of same run-up we've got over here check out what robin track says which tells us in green the amount of users holding tesla stock and as you can see the amount of users holding tesla stock is going up right along with the price kind of interesting what about apple apple has also gone up nicely certainly not as much as tesla apple's gone up about 31 over roughly uh the last month and take a look at apple over the last month on robinhood lots more robin hood users going in it seems like every time the price goes up robin hood users come in right afterwards now i'm a robin hood user as well so i'm not trying to say anything bad about robinhood users but what i will say is i'm concerned that we've had a recent euphoric run up in these stocks by potentially less experienced investors i want to get in before the stock split to be a part of a stock split at the same time short sailors are getting squeezed out because it's becoming very expensive to be a rational short seller right now even though it might make sense to short some of these stocks because we might see a correction some of them are still getting squeezed out no apple doesn't have many shorts outstanding anyway but we do know that tesla is like eight percent short and so folks there are a few things that could happen here because the bottom line is no green market lasts forever stocks don't go up like this forever tesla does have a history of doing this though where it tends to go up for 10 to 21 days in a row we're at about 16 calendar days in a row of this run-up and there are a few things that i think are possible that could happen number one i wouldn't be surprised if after the stock splits that happened today and the beginning of next week we'll start seeing prices slowly pull back at apple and tesla if there's any bad publicity or bad press it's going to be even worse and we'll see even more of a pullback and it would not be surprising to see people who are buying tesla and apple shares start selling taking profits and pushing the stocks back down the reality is we have no idea what's going to happen what we do know is that tesla and apple are probably very good investments for the long run no guarantees i'm not going to say you can hold them forever but i'm optimistic about both of those companies at least for the next five to 10 years however in the short term it would not surprise me to see a substantial pullback especially if there's any kind of fear catalyst that leads to some sort of short-term crash in these stocks that is i wouldn't be surprised that after the split sometime between september and october we might see some of these stocks pull back 20 to 30 percent as people start bailing out of these companies again so here's how i'm playing tesla and apple and what they're doing in my portfolio number one i'm only adding to tesla and apple as part of my top 40 stocks so usually when a company is really suffering and it's red i like coming in and individually buying that stock i can't bring myself to individually buy tesla and apple right now so instead i'm putting money into what i call my favorite index fund which is my own it's not really an index fund but i just call it that it you could see it at metkevin.com 1337v6 you could look at it totally for free it's about my top 40 stocks and you could see the different percentages i give to each stocks and yeah i did update it to version six this means i'm not individually buying these stocks if apple and tesla do end up correcting downwards by 15 to 30 percent i personally believe we'll have a really nice buying opportunity to get back into tesla and apple at lower prices i don't feel comfortable going in heavy on tesla and apple right now i'm actually doing something totally different with my cash and i'm using a margin strategy to take advantage of tesla and apple more on that in part three of this video so instead of going super heavy on even this index or going super heavy on tesla and apple individually with this crazy run up we've seen here's what i'm doing instead this is part two of the video rather than joining this meteoric rise i'm investing some of my cash right now into my favorite recovery stocks i've been waiting for something that's going to tell me i could feel more confident about the covid recovery about one month ago i started noticing that google trends data was suggesting we might be getting to a place where covet is more under control it's not going to be gone but more under control and so i've slowly started increasing my exposure to recovery stocks like the airlines the cruise lines the restaurants and retail and entertainment now we had even more of a catalyst that just happened this week in case you didn't hear abbott labs announced a five dollar do-it-yourself quick test kit the test kit is about the size of a credit card and after you take the test you download an app and that gives you your results but in addition to giving you your results you could show your test results to people to verify that you actually took the test i'm sure there are going to be ways to game it but i i hopefully people would be moral about this anyway this presumably making an assumption here is going to be good for movie theaters malls schools airplanes hotels restaurants dave and busters and more i wish i had more fingers on this hand to count these out but this could be very very good for some form of recovery now i know most of us have been waiting for a vaccine but realistically if we have proper testing and we can isolate the people who know they're sick and basically people can only go inside buildings if they have a green badge of some sort that would be awesome especially if that green badge expired every you know five or seven days or whatever so that people had to renew their testing details to come obviously we don't know all the details of this yet but check it out the abbott labs rapid test kit is a game changer pay attention to this donald trump ordered 150 million test kits at a price of 750 billion dollars so i mean look it shouldn't be surprising that the administration is throwing money into this recovery the more we recover faster the greater chance i think there is that donald trump gets reelected and i think all of us can agree on that whether or not you're on the left or the right not trying to be political i'm just bottom lining in here so here's what i'm doing first in my opinion do not throw a dart and pick an individual recovery stock don't just yolo and pick dave busters okay because they could go bust us all right i'm always extremely clear about this anytime i recommend a stock they can go down okay so here's what i'm doing to kind of limit the emotion that goes into buying recovery stocks and keep in mind this is still risky go to this website metkevin.com recovery that is going to show you my 10 stock picks for recovery stocks and it's going to show you how i've divided them out into different sectors kind of like here's the hotels here's a bit for restaurants here's a bit for entertainment here are some more steady companies here's some companies that have less risk here's some companies with more risk and so this way if i want to put money into recovery stocks i'm not going all in on one or two stocks it's too volatile it's too risky it's too too emotionally draining because there's a good chance if you buy recovery stocks that they'll go down again they'll go up again they go down again they go up again it's madness it's maddening so if you want to play the abbott labs uh you know game so to speak and speculate that hey this is good we're in recovery mode this is an option for you this is something that i'm doing not with a lot of my portfolio with about five percent of my portfolio so i've taken five percent of my portfolio's value in cash and moved it into these and that's in addition to the previous like maybe four percent i've had so i'm i'm increasing my exposure to recovery stocks right now again mostly because of that abbott labs thing keep this in mind though all of these recovery stocks are heavily burdened by new debt and that makes them all risky investments now i chose the companies that i did because i feel like they are less indebted than their competition so if you look at the airline i chose or the cruise line that i chose you're going to see or know that in my opinion these companies are better off financially than their competitors that's the reason for the choices that i made furthermore any change in covid could really screw this whole thing up if we get a second wave and we start seeing data trend up again all these stocks are going to tank again like it's it's game over so this is not for the faint of heart okay uh that said the stocks are up very very well today i mean some of these choices are up 16 today eight percent today eight percent today seven percent today so you know the recovery market has already started pricing some of this change in we don't know if that is going to last into next week and beyond i am hopeful and that's why i'm best investing okay strategy number three right now that i'm doing stock margin very very dangerous very risky if the market falls you could get a margin call which literally means hey yo you borrowed some money against your stocks well the stocks fell and now you gotta bring in some more cash uh you gotta bring it in like within the next three hours otherwise i'm liquidating your stocks bro uh you don't have any cash all right i'll liquidate your stocks now yeah that is a margin call so it's dangerous because you don't want to lose your stocks at the bottom of the market if there's some kind of crash or double dip right so here's what i'm doing i'm not using margin through well i'm trying not to i'm paying off the margin that i have with weibull robin hood and td ameritrade all three of these brokers they charge you higher interest rates and well ultimately they let you borrow probably more than you should they let you borrow up to 100 of your assets at robinhood and weeble and at td ameritrade you could you could go even crazier than that i won't even mention it because you could go crazy at td ameritrade very dangerous so instead here's what i've been doing every time tesla and apple shoot up i go to m1 finance and i know i keep mentioning m1 finance i get it i use them a lot they're my main broker like 90 of my stocks are with them m1 finance lets you take out up to 35 on margin that's less risky than taking out a full 100 debt against your stocks obviously with less risk comes less reward but i look i i don't want to lose things okay i do not like losing money so i am limiting my risk and so with m1 finance i'm limited to 35 debt 35 margin which is good every time tesla and apple go up i'm taking the cash out and i'm just letting it sit in the brokerage account that way if tesla and apple fall my ability to take out more margin is going to go away but i'll have cash to buy tesla and apple now if the stocks fall so much that i get a margin call i could take that cash and return the cash money to margin if i needed to right so by keeping it in cash i'm insulating myself but i'm also preparing if i see a 20 pullback great what i did to make this make a little bit more sense is i went ahead and put together a quick pdf that'll show you how this works let me pull it up so take a look at this with m1 finance if i have ten thousand dollars in value at m1 finance that means i'm eligible to borrow 3 500 that means if i invest that money i have thirteen thousand five hundred dollars invested if i invest it if i put it in cash then obviously i have less invested if i have thirteen thousand five hundred dollars invested m1 finance is going to require me have 30 percent maintenance which bottom line and i don't want to go so crazy detailed in this i could do that in my stock and money course which i'm developing and adding lectures to right now uh here's the thing with m1 finance for me to get a margin call stocks would have to drop slightly more than 44 percent that's a lot that's almost halving in value i don't expect my stock portfolio to fall 44 could it happen yeah and that's why i am keeping some money in cash however if i went to robin hood or weeble stocks would only have to drop 25 before i got a margin call and so that's why i'm a little and that's with 100 margin and so that's why i'm a little bit more hesitant over at robinhood and weeble to keep pulling up margin so just be careful that's kind of just like basically a quick little warning for you on margin the more margin you take out the quicker obviously you would be exposed to some sort of margin call so this is how i am preparing for this evolution in the stock market which is basically already happening so if you like this sort of information the way i present my perspectives and ideas consider learning from me on everything that i've learned in the last 10 years on investing in real estate and stocks and how to build money a portfolio and manage your finances all of these courses are availabl quick summary number one tesla and apple be careful i wouldn't be surprised if we see a big pullback in these and another buying opportunity if you're going to invest right now consider if you have a risk appetite putting some of your money into those stocks at metkevin.com recovery it doesn't have to be through that portal it doesn't matter you could just look at that portal and pick the individual stocks if you want then uh you know when it comes to margin be safe be careful out there and honestly if you use margin you'll really ought to have some sort of regular income coming in so that way if things started kind of declining you'd have cash that you're able to build up every week to where you could slowly bail yourself out of some debt if you needed to so be careful if you're unemployed and you don't have a lot of money stay away from margin in all fairness stay away from margin it can be very very risky so there you have my update on the stock market and my concerns if you've liked this please consider sharing it with anybody you know that cares about money which is hopefully everybod you
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