저자: PeterLynch · 외국인
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결론: 경기침체 예측은 무의미하며 장기적으로 좋은 회사를 이해하고 보유하는 것이 핵심이라는 주장. 경기침체 예측 무용론: 제2차 세계대전 이후 13번의 경기침체와 13번의 회복이 있었고, 침체는 늘 예측되지만 타이밍은 알 수 없다고 강조. 시장 공포와 투자 태도: 시장에는 항상 걱정거리가 있으며, 중요한 것은 좋은 회사를 소유하고 공부하는 것이라고 주장. 종목 선택 원칙: 주식을 보유한 이유를 2분 안에 10살 아이에게 설명할 수 없다면 그 주식을 보유해서는 안 된다고 주장. 바닥 낚시 경계: 주가가 많이 떨어졌다고 단순히 매수하는 것은 실수이며, 저가 매수의 함정을 경계. 시장 하락 통계: 93년간 10% 이상 조정이 50번, 25% 이상 약세장이 15번 있었음을 근거로 시장 하락은 정상적이라고 설명. 장기 보유 사례: 월마트 상장 후 10년 뒤 매수해도 약 35배, 마이크로소프트 상장 3년 뒤 매수해도 약 10배 수익이 났다고 언급. 언급 종목: 코카콜라(주가 약 30배 상승, 주당순이익 30년간 상승), 베들레헴 스틸(주가 30년간 절반 하락), 스탠더드오일 오하이오(90→30 하락 사례), 스미스클라인(타가맷 출시 후 2년 뒤 매수 시 5~6배 수익 사례) 등 과거 사례 중심. 리스크 및 조건: 주식은 복권이 아니며 기업의 실적이 주가를 결정한다는 조건 강조. 출연자 전망: 특정 자산에 대한 향후 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측 발언은 없음.
다듬은 글
well we've had 13 recessions since World War II and we've had 13 recoveries maybe we're going to have one if this is a recession it's probably the most predicted one ever you know I never know when we're gonna go I'd love to know the future I think I'd give it would help I'd be a better investor I paid five extra dollars for next year's Wall Street Journal it would really help I cannot predict the future but this one this recession is so expected so predicted maybe it's coming I don't know they're always something to worry about and the key organ in your body in the stock market is your stomach it's not the brain if you can add eight get reasonably close to Six games that's the only level of math you need to know if you don't know to need the area under the curve remember that quadratic equation and an integral calculus and the area under the curve I mean whoever Kia was under the damn curve but you had to study this you don't need this in the stock market so all you have to know is you're going to suit it's always going to be scary there's gonna be always something to worry about you just have to forget all that cut it all out and own good companies our own turnarounds study them and you'll do well and that's all there is I I I'm amazed that the average investor is out there in some industry they're in the polyvinyl chloride industry they're in Insurance they're in textiles and they're going to see those Industries turn and they're not going to buy those stocks they're going to go buy some stock from somebody in the National Guard or they're going to something on television on biogenetics they have a big age in me I work awful hard and they're months ahead of me they can be the healthcare industry they're seeing new products they should work on that on that that they have in front of them it's a common mistake I do I think people buy stocks because they've fallen from Price X to two-thirds of X or half of X on that basis alone you're buying a stock that's called bottom fishing the stock market very very difficult I've had a rough go with its standard oil Ohio this year fell from 90 to 60 and I told everybody the stock is they're not going to go any lower then I went to 50.
I said this is it no lower is it went through 40 I said to people this is it finally when it got down under 30 and people said what do you think is Ohio I said what does Ohio do I don't I don't know that company I actually backed away from it the stock market for anyone is to know what you own I'm amazed how many people own stocks they would not be able to tell you why they own it they couldn't say in a minute or less why they don't actually you really press them down they'd say the reason I own this is the suckers going up and that's the only reason that's the only reason they own it and if you can't explain them seriously you can't explain to a 10 year old in two minutes or less while you're on a stock you shouldn't own it and that's true I think about 80 percent of people that own stocks and this is the kind of stock people like to own this is the kind of company people adore owning is a relatively simple company and they make a easy remember Coca-Cola is earning 30 times per share what they did 32 years ago the stock has gone up 30 fold Bethlehem Steel is earning less than they did 30 years ago the stock is half its price of 30 years ago stocks are not lottery tickets there's a company behind every stock the company does well the stock does well it's not that complicated people get too carried away and first of all they try and predict the stock market that is a total waste of time no one can predict the stock market what you learn from history is the market goes down it goes down a lot the math is simple there's been 93 years a century this is easy to do the markets had 50 declines of 10 or more so 50 declines in 93 years about once every two years the market Falls 10 percent we call that a correction that means that's a euphemism for losing a lot of money rapidly we call it a correction and uh so three years about once every two years the market Falls 10 percent of those 50 declines 15 have been 25 percent or more that's known as a bear Market we've had 15 declines in 93 years so every six years the Market's gonna have a 25 decline that's all you need to know you need it on the markets can go down sometimes another key element is that you have plenty of time people are an unbelievable rush to buy a stock I'll give an example of a well-known company Walmart went public in October of 1970.
1970 went public I already had a great record it had 15 years performance great balance sheet you could have waited 10 years saying you're a very conservative investor you're not sure this Walmart can make it you want to check your you see them operating small towns you're afraid they can only make them seven or eight states you want to wait till they go to more States you keep waiting you get about Walmart 10 years after they went public I made 35 times your money if you bought it when they went public you would have made 500 times your money but you can wait 10 years after Walmart went public I made uh 30 over 30 times your money you can wait three years after Microsoft went public to make 10 times a month buffer I know nothing about software if you understand my software you would said these guys have it I don't care who's going to win compact IBM I don't know who's going to win Japanese computers I know Microsoft MS-DOS is the right thing you could have bought Microsoft again I'm repeating myself stocks are not a lottery ticket there's a company behind every stock and you can just watch it you have plenty of time people are in an amazing rush to purchase the security they're out of breath when they call up you don't need to do this you need an edge to make money too people have incredible edges and they throw them away I'll give you a quick example of uh Smith Klein this is a stock that had Tagamet now you didn't have to buy Smith Klein when tagment was doing critical trials you didn't have to buy Smith Klein when tagment was talked about in the New England Journal of Medicine or the British version Lancet you could have bought Smith Klein when tag him that first came out a year after came out let's say your spouse your mother your father you were a nurse You're a druggist you're writing all these prescriptions Tagamet was doing an amazing job of curing ulcers and it was a wonderful pill for the company because if you just stopped taking it he also came back see it wasn't a crummy product that you took it for a buck and it went away but it was a great product for the company but you could have bought it two years after the product was on the market and made five or six times your money
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