저자: JoelGreenblatt · 외국인
요약 보기
Joel Greenblatt는 자신의 책과 후속 연구를 바탕으로 개인이 쉽게 시장을 이기는 방법을 설명하며, 핵심은 가치투자 원칙과 지수 가중 방식의 개선이다. 인덱스 펀드(S&P 500, Russell 1000)는 low fee 덕분에 약 70%의 액티브 매니저를 이긴다고 설명한다. 과거 성과가 좋았던 매니저가 이후에도 좋은 성과를 낸다는 상관관계는 거의 없어 매니저 선택은 어렵다고 말한다. 시가총액 가중 지수는 고평가 종목을 자동으로 더 많이 사고 저평가 종목은 덜 사는 체계적 오류가 있다고 지적한다. 동일 가중(equal weight) 지수는 이 체계적 오류를 무작위 오류로 바꿔 연 약 2%의 추가 수익을 얻을 수 있다고 주장한다. 펀더멘털 가중 지수도 가격이 아닌 방식으로 종목을 가중하는 대안으로 소개한다. 가치투자는 낮은 PBR·PSR이 아니라 기업 가치를 판단해 싸게 사는 것이라고 정의한다. 가치와 성장은 본질적으로 연결되어 있으며, 좋은 사업을 싸게 사는 것이 핵심이라고 강조한다. 워런 버핏처럼 성장 가능한 좋은 기업을 합리적 가격에 사는 방향으로 투자 스타일이 발전했다고 회고한다. 특정 종목이나 자산에 대한 가격 방향 예측 발언은 없다.
다듬은 글
I wrote a book uh six years ago called the uh the little book that beats the market and it really gave a very simple way for people to to beat the market I actually ended up after I finished the book getting worried that people would kind of uh screw it up and I was really trying to help people so and there aren't great data sources and everything else so we actually set up a website to do everything for them except that I made a little mistake it actually ended up being pretty hard I tried doing it with my kids and managing a portfolio of 20 or 30 Securities and keeping track of the taxes and everything else it turns out most people don't you know it's kind of hard to do it yourself and I even found it hard with my own kids so I learned a lot we did a lot of research since the first book and uh learned some more things and and came out with something that I guess is even easier for people to do and also uh takes advantage of our latest research well it's pretty interesting that from the research we did in the book um most people know that the typical index funds the S P 500 and the Russell 1000 uh if you invest in those they beat most managers roughly about 70 percent of the managers uh and that's pretty powerful it's because of their low fees and that most managers aren't really adding value so one logical thing to do uh would be to say well I know only 30 percent of the managers beat the typical index so how do I find those guys and it turns out if you look back over the last three five and ten years of those managers record there's really no correlation between how they do in the next three five ten which is really what you're trying to figure out and that really is is that their market cap weighted indexes which means they put more weight into the larger market caps and so that if astonish the losers right so if you believe like Ben Graham or uh Warren Buffett that the Market's sometimes emotional it's not efficient like so many professors have professed over many years it's not efficient that means that if the market does get emotional over the short term uh that some stocks are overpriced and some are underpriced and a market a market cap weighted index if a stock is overpriced it buys too much of it automatically and if it's underpriced it buys too little of it automatically because it's based in a market cap which is essentially price so it sounds crazy but it actually systematically doing the wrong thing at every Point uh whenever there's an inefficiently priced stock and so there's an easy way to correct that and they're actually equally weighted indexes instead of putting uh putting more in the larger market cap companies it actually puts an equally weight so if you have the S P 500 it'll put as much weight in stock number one as it will in stock number 500.
it still makes plenty of errors in other words it's an equally waiting but those errors are now random not systematic like a market cap weighted index so you actually get back the two percent a year uh and a few people have come out with something called fundamentally weighted indexes it's just another way to weight stocks uh without using price um sometimes I mean my definition of value investing is figure out what it's worth pay a lot less it has nothing to do with low price book or low price sales and so that's how a lot of people like Russell or Morning Star would classify value investors and so they probably wouldn't classify me as a value investor or a growth investor they kind of don't know what to do with us and you know as Buffett has said you know growth and value are are tied at the hip I mean uh part of what makes value is by investing in a business that can grow over time so they're they're not two different uh the way they're classified by let's say Morningstar Russell maybe there's much lower growth in value and much higher growth than growth and that they they make it that way but I I'm looking for good businesses that are cheap you know Ben Graham said figure out what it's worth pay a lot less leave a large margin of safety uh between those two big space between those two things Warren Buffett his best student made one little twist that made him one of the richest people in the world well if it simply said if I can buy a good business cheap even better part of good is a business that can grow over time and so um I slowly gravitated not not fast enough I you know certainly in my first decade of investing gravitated more towards the way that Warren Buffett invests he's looking for good and cheap businesses and growth is is part of uh sometimes being good
Comments 0