저자: MohamedEl-Erian · 외국인
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결론: 시장은 여전히 불확실성이 커서 현 주가 수준이 적정해 보이며, 섣불리 베팅하기보다 지켜봐야 한다는 입장. 실적 시즌 핵심 관전 포인트: 빅테크의 비용 절감이 얼마나 진행됐고 그 영향이 얼마나 큰지, 코카콜라처럼 브랜드력과 시장점유율이 큰 기업은 가격 결정력이 중요하다는 점, 그리고 퍼스트리퍼블릭 등 금융 섹터 상황. 금융 섹터 체크 항목: 예금 안정화 여부, 조달 비용 변화, 대손충당금 추이. 이 흐름은 수개월~여러 분기에 걸쳐 전개될 것이며, 향후 신용 공급 축소 폭이 큰 물음표라고 지적. 거시 변수: 인플레이션의 끈적임 정도와 연준이 물가 억제, 고용 손실 최소화, 금융 안정 사이에서 어떻게 균형을 잡을지가 핵심 불확실성. 주식 시장 평가: 주가 수준은 현재 알려진 정보 기준으로 공정해 보이나, 모르는 변수가 많아 상승·하락 어느 쪽에도 베팅하지 않는 관망 입장. 부정적 뉴스 반영 여부: 실적 미스 시 주가 하락폭이 기대 대비 작고, 호실적 시 상승폭은 큰 비대칭이 나타나 시장에 이미 부정적 편향이 내재된 신호일 수 있다는 견해. 채권시장 신호: 주식시장은 차분하지만 채권시장은 혼란스럽다. 3개월물과 1개월물 스프레드가 전례 없이 벌어졌고, 5년 CDS 프리미엄은 10년 만에 처음으로 50bp를 넘었다. 채권시장이 불확실성을 강하게 반영하고 있다고 해석. 연준 전망: 과거에는 한 번 더 인상 후 동결이 기본 시나리오였으나, 현재는 5월 이후 추가 인상 가능성도 20% 이상으로 반영되는 등 긴축 장기화 쪽 꼬리위험이 커지고 있다고 설명. 결론적으로 주식은 관망, 채권·정책 신호에 주목해야 한다는 메시지.
다듬은 글
joining us right now is Muhammad alerian he is the chief economic advisor at Allianz he's also president of Queen's College Cambridge and Muhammad earnings uh a lot kind of riding on this especially when you mentioned some of those big Tech names they're responsible for the bulk of the gains that we've seen in the market this year overall for the indexes yeah I mean we're trying to figure out three things from these earnings one on Tech how advanced is that cost cutting and how impactful would that be two Coca-Cola was fascinating for me it shows you that pricing power really matters especially when you have a strong brand and a big market share and then thirdly as as Joe and and Dom were were exchanging earlier it's amazing that we're talking about First Republic but that's a really important one to look at so you know it's a very varied picture but one that reflects the amount of uncertainty that's out there where do you come down I mean the economy is looking really good we're going to get GDP this week and that's expected to be really strong but as you mentioned you still have questions about what's happening around Finance the finance sector First Republic Bank what are you looking for in those results and what will that tell you more broadly about the industry if anything so really what we're looking for is have they stabilized deposits and as important what's happening to funding costs and what happened to loan loss Provisions those three elements are going to be repeated over the next few months this thing is going to play out over many quarters it's not going to play out immediately and all that matters because we we need to get a feel for how much credit extension is going to come down we know it's going to come down but we don't know by how much that's a big question mark the second big question mark is how sticky is inflation and how will the FED balance the trilemma reduce inflation minimize the damage to jobs and growth and maintain Financial stability so we're going to get more information on this going forward and of course that's the jail politics so that is unusually uncertain I want to stress that that's why the market is fair here given what we know and we don't know this these levels seem fair these levels seem fair yes I said it to you last week and the week before you know we'll get a lot more information but given what we know and especially what we don't know I wouldn't bet against these markets I wouldn't bet in favor of these markets I would actually just wait and see we're gonna have to figure out um these three these three main issues I I mentioned but do you think that that the potential for bad news at least some bad news has been baked in we were speaking earlier today um with someone who was pointing out that when companies Miss earnings are down this earnings expectations stocks are down but not by as much as possible as usual when they beat expectations they're up by more and maybe that's just the the indication that there's already a negative bias built into these markets yeah I mean I think that's right if you look at the equity Market on a standalone it is the bond market that is um confusing right now we are seeing things we have not seen ever or for a long time I'll give you two examples three months spread relative to one month at levels we haven't seen it's astronomical levels um the 10 The Five-Year CDs credit the full swap is back of over 50 basis points we haven't seen that in the last 10 years um so the equity Market actually is is calming it's comforting it is the bond market that's sending all these conflicting signals I myself can't make make what to think of what's going on in these parts of the bond market that we're not used to look at and that makes you want to do what with Investments at this point it just reflects I think the the bond market recognizes and has embraced that there's a lot of uncertainty and that you've got to factor that in the equity Market is talking less uncertainty um and I just worry that you don't want to commit fully to this Equity Market until you figure out the things that we don't know because you think the Bond Market knows more than this really uncertain right now but you think in general the bond market tends to know more than the equity Market it tends to be more macro focused um look at what's happening about expectations for the fed you know it used to be easy the FED told us they're going to have one more hike and stay there that was the Baseline and the balance of Doubt was they're going to have to cut a lot now suddenly we're seeing also the other tail starting to go up that maybe they're going to have to hike more there's now an over 20 probability that they may have have to hike one more time after May so you see in the bond market all these signals that tell you there's a lot of uncertainty out there on the economy and on policy
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