저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
요약 보기
인도 주식시장의 장기 성장 잠재력을 낙관하는 영상이다. 결론은 인도 시장이 향후 수십 년간 구조적으로 유망하며, 현재 밸류에이션은 실적 회복을 기다리는 구간이라는 것이다. 인도 경제 전망: 향후 수년간 6~7% 성장이 가능하다고 보며, 1인당 GDP가 낮아 글로벌 평균(약 1만~1.2만 달러)을 따라잡는 데 긴 시간이 남아 있다고 설명한다. 글로벌 자금 흐름: 해외 대형 투자자들이 인도 비중을 늘리려는 의향을 보이며, 수조 달러 규모 자금 중 일부(8~10%)를 향후 7~10년 내 인도로 옮길 것이라는 관측을 전한다. 다만 이미 과대 배분된 측면이 있어 해결 방식은 불확실하다고 언급한다. 시장 규모: 인도 주식 시가총액은 글로벌의 약 3.5%이며 5%까지 확대될 여지가 있다고 본다. 산업 집중도: 자동차(트럭·트랙터·오토바이), 통신, 페인트 등 주요 산업이 소수 기업에 집중되어 있어 성장 여력과 함께 통합된 우량 기업에 투자할 기회가 크다고 평가한다. 과거 수익률: 지난 30년간 센섹스가 약 100배 상승했고, 발언자 본인이 100 근처에서 매수를 시작한 뒤 현재 약 32,000까지 320배 올랐다고 설명한다. 과거 상승은 예측이 아닌 이력으로 본다. 밸류에이션: 시장 시총/GDP 비율이 약 80%로 미국(약 155%)보다 낮고, 주가수익비율(PER)은 약 23배로 장기 평균(17~18배) 소폭 상회 수준이다. 현재 주가는 실적이 아닌 PER 변화에 의해 움직이고 있다고 진단한다. 리스크·조건: 정책 조정과 연립정부 정치 변동, 일시적 불안정성은 있을 수 있으나 장기 성장을 해치지 않을 것이라 본다. 투자 판단의 핵심 변수는 실적 반등(어닝 블라스트) 시점이며, 그 시점과 규모는 알 수 없다고 명시한다. 대상 자산 직접 예측: 영상 내 삼성전자·SK하이닉스 등 한국 자산이나 미국 지수에 대한 1~3개월 방향 예측은 없다.
다듬은 글
so I think I saw the chief minister is concerned every asset has its own value at a given point of time like India where it is standing today the good potential is looking very robust way above any other country and for much longer period I think that much longer period like what has happened last 25 years can continue without any problem for next 25 years you think so yeah despite I'm saying that today we have the stability even after that after five six years by chance there is some level of instability even there is fine because in last 25 years in all kinds of industrology in Indian democracy so Coalition politics and all so I think politics aside India's time has come where uh I think the growth of six seven percent is granted for many years to come you have to become so wrong for five year policy Corrections will be there but one say because our Capital GDP is low and about two and a half thousand global average is more like ten twelve thousand dollars so for us to catch up with that that itself is Germany of 20 30 years so I think we have a very very good weekend we are betting on very good wickets now as well as a Global Investors are concerned so we are very domestic-centric I mean for us India is 100 almost okay but for somebody who's allocating globally you know I mean they would like to be uh they would like to be taking uh shots on the markets which are going to be very successful now India is going to be very successful it has been successful the issue is that uh they're already over allocated by some measures you know what is the license which they are showing uh India is already those investors are already overall occurred so what do they do you know but if you look at the overall like we are three and a half percent of global market cap headed towards five but I don't think the world is allocated that much on India so I don't know how they resolve it I mean will they make India as a separate category itself out of their total Global uh this thing but the kind of guys who are visiting me and we are able to talk to some people it looks at very large buckets of money like a trillion dollars those guys are saying that in next seven eight years ten years their intention is to go up eight to ten percent of their purpose into India wow can India resolved so I think Outlook uh is good and India is one interesting place where growth is ahead and yet the consolidation in the many Industries are like this every single segment of Automotive is 50 truck Telco is 50 tractor Mahindra is 50 motorcycle Hero Honda is 50 hero motor cop sorry right so you name it paints Asian Paint is 60 all the growth is ahead and yet you have got Consolidated companies like this so these are the upper massive opportunities to invest and build a wonderful portfolio for next 10 15 20 years this only Market which is up 100 times the last 30 years every 30 years it goes 100 100 times and there is no reason to believe the next 30 Years not going to be as exciting I have spent 30 years in the market I have seen when I start buying a stock it was 100 sensex today is 32 000.
so in right in front of me market has gone up by 320 times and I can see some more senior people they must have seen from maybe 50 or 60 to 32 000. so there is no reason to believe that there is a there is a long term case for bearishness uh markets are trading about 80 percent of GDP which is also us is studying at 1.55 and we are trading at 0.9 and we are supposed to be the fastest growing column in the world so this is some disconnect so there is a lot of score for Indian markets to climb up as Market Capital GDP as the earnings come in right now as this dark blue line is about the p p of the market is about 2023 which is little above the mean of about 17 18 but you see the markets are moving only with that so only p is driving the market right now not the earnings as the earnings come I mean none of the bull markets none of the economic cycle ever get over unless earning blast comes so I have a Eternal faith that this earning blast will come things will stabilize and corporates I mean they'll be you know effect will come and we will group when it will happen how big will happen how far it is away I have no clue
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