I Was Wrong.

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과거 인플레이션 변곡점(2021년 10~11월) 예측이 빗나갔다고 인정. 인플레이션이 예상보다 길게 지속되며 암호화폐 비중을 크게 늘리고, 기술주(테슬라·SoFi·Matterport 등) 약 80% 비중 유지. 10년물 금리는 1.61% 부근에서 상단 확인 후 하락 전환, 2021년 말 기술주 랠리 기대. 장기적으로 고마진 기술기업 선호 및 TINA 논리 제시.

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01. hey everyone meet kevin here i was wrong in this video i'm going to tell you exactly what i was wrong about what difference it makes what change i'm making why it's happening start with the background what i projected which bear in mind most folks in finance will never give you a projection because they are so fearful of being wrong most of you know and i think that's why you follow this channel i don't care about being wrong i'd rather have a plan and a just direction as needed and in this video i admit i was wrong about something let's break it down in december and january uh so last december so december of 2020 in january of 2021 i made numerous videos talking about how we were going to have a lot of coming inflation fud fear uncertainty and doubt there would be a lot of what i called clickbait articles about how bad inflation was and that's because we'd be comparing to this whole of 2020 and we would see this massively large inflationary reading on year over year levels and that we would have a summer potential reopening boom and we would see inflation surge especially if these two things overlapped and that would likely lead to supply chain shortages or product shortages and we would either be paying i said this almost a year ago we would be paying with our with increased money aka inflation or we would be paying more with our time as we wait longer for products or services like airplanes deal with cancellations or whatever these things have turned out to be true i also though suggested that we would have a stock market rally in the last quarter of 2021.

02. i said we would have this rally at the end of 2021 in my opinion because markets would begin to realize that this inflation will not last forever and will probably have an inflection to the downside in inflationary readings when we get our september and october data the reason i said that was because i knew that in september the unemployment boost would expire people would go back to work i expected the summer spending boom to go away i expected supply chain shortages to soften out i expected spending to somewhat fall as you go into the fall because first you have your reopening boom people like yay i'm living life again and then you're like wow i spent a lot of money now i'm gonna like save a little bit again and not go back to being as frugal as we were during the pandemic because a lot of people saved a lot more during the pandemic we also got a lot more stimulus payments than that but that we would we would go back to some sort of normal level of spending maybe normalize back to a 2019 level of spending right so those were my projections and they're documented in many dozens of videos that i've made updating you along the way over the past nearly year talking about 10 to 11 months that i've been talking about this crisis coming and this potential end-of-year rally upon an inflection point in inflation but i was wrong we did not get an inflection point in inflation inflation instead has stayed longer more persistently and been larger than expected that's because supply chain crises have been worse than expected the amount of monetary and fiscal support that our country has gotten has been insane in other words the money printer has been rolling really fast okay people have more money than we've ever had before in a weird way we also thought that there was going to be an inflationary fear because we expected the velocity of money or how much money circulates in our economy to go back up it hasn't a lot of people have been taking their extra money and actually investing it and building their wealth they're buying real estate they're buying stocks they're investing i as well and a big change i'm making my portfolio they're learning everything that they can they're taking things like or 41 off coupon code expiring on the 29th of this month which is in like two weeks which is all great but even though the velocity of money is staying low which should dampen inflation we're still seeing prices go up i expected that in october and november of this year we would start to see inflation inflect down but we're not seeing it and it's partially because companies haven't been able to pass along the full cost of product increases or product price increases yet for example let's say i'm gonna make an ipad and i'm gonna sell you this ipad for let's call it a thousand dollars this one's less than a thousand dollars but we're gonna call it a thousand dollars right let's say it cost me five hundred dollars to make this ipad well if my costs went up to seven hundred dollars and i still want to make 500 profit i have to raise the price of this ipad by 200 because at 200 of supply-based inflation uh price is going up for supply costs and therefore product costs my margins get squeezed i'm no longer making 500 i'm making 300.

03. what most companies are indicating is that they've only been able to raise prices about half of the increase of product costs which means that if the cost of manufacturing this ipad went from 500 to 700 or 200 increase i've only actually been able to raise the price of the product from a thousand dollars to eleven hundred dollars which is only making up for about a hundred dollars of the difference that means we actually have delayed inflation still baked into products and prices have not gone up fully yet which means we're actually seeing inflation longer than expected and it's going to stick around more than anybody thought no i don't want to say that anybody thought because i know that there are many people who believe that inflation is way worse than what the government's telling us which is true i mean to some degree if there's more inflation built into this product and it has not been realized yet then even though the government report could actually be correct in the way they're measuring it it would actually be wrong in telling us how much inflation to expect going forward because it has not all yet been realized in product prices or the reports are just rigged both in fact you could have a combination of both to some degree right but that doesn't matter so much i think most of the market right now is in agreement with what we believed a year ago what we believed a year ago was we were going to see inflation spike and then eventually taper down and this has not started happening yet we are right here and unfortunately this little shelf here is lasting longer we're still hoping that this goes down but this inflection point that i thought would be realized in october and november of 2021 has not happened yet and now it's anybody's guess is it going to be march or should i say q1 is it going to be to q2 or the summer of next year we don't know but what's really interesting is two big things are happening in the market and they're affecting the way that i'm investing number one has to do with crypto and number two has to do with what the market actually thinks about inflation so let's talk about crypto first i believed that if we got an inflection to the downside two things would happen one cryptocurrencies would fall and technology stocks would go up that's what i believed i believe that cryptocurrencies would go down because cryptocurrencies uh a lot of folks invest in cryptocurrencies because they want an inflationary hedge this summer when used car prices were going down before inflecting back up when lumber prices were going down before inflecting back up when oil prices were going down before inflecting back up guess what cryptocurrencies were doing falling the 10-year treasury rate was low this summer it was down to like 1.25 and cryptocurrencies were low at the same exact time because inflation expectations were falling we thought that's it we're on trajectory the inflationary curve is going down but unfortunately the reason we got this curve down was in part due because of the delta variant in a very brief kind of slowdown and all of a sudden commodity prices started going up used cars lumber uh aluminum uranium every commodity essentially has been skyrocketing it said lithium you name it and now supply chain issues are even more strained under high product costs and shipping issues and port congestion is worse than it ever was before to where the port of los angeles and the port of long beach are going to a 24-hour shift to try to squeeze out another 60 hours of work a week just to try to get product moving it's nutty right and so what have we seen over the last three to four weeks as we've seen inflation be more persistent and longer line it up with when jerome powell started talking about when inflation started being recognized as being longer lasting and more persistent and you will see cryptocurrency prices go up and so what i have done over the last six weeks is i've actually increased my cryptocurrency portfolio to be larger than anything i've had previously previously my max cryptocurrency holding was about 580 000 there were some fluctuations over the last uh eight or so weeks where i did a little bit of selling and then buying back so i was able to lower some of my cost spaces but in addition to lowering my cost spaces in crypto take a look at my coinbase pro now right now in my coinbase pro which doesn't represent all of my crypto i have some over i know this sounds crazy but i have some at robin hood because coinbase was down and so i have like 70k of ethereum and a little bit of bitcoin like 40k of bitcoin over there but anyway uh and it is so i mean okay so that would take me to what uh 40 plus two it's just under 1.4 million in cryptocurrencies so anyway you could see that i've actually placed a lot more money into cryptocurrencies than i ever have before and and i'm doing so because i recognize at least for the time being the inflationary fears are going to stay and i want to be on that ride so i'm increasing my allocation to cryptocurrencies to about six to eight percent of my portfolio and i'm considering raising that to eight to ten percent and i might shave that back down once we get to that inflection point now don't get me wrong i love cryptocurrency so i don't want anybody think i'm like paper handing it's trading i know i'm going in to make money and to trade right there's fundamental there are fundamental ways to invest there are technical ways to invest and then there are momentum ba ways to invest this is part momentum part technical and then part inflationary hedge kind of trading so it's a little bit in my opinion a mix of all but anyway i'm going in with a very clear mindset that i'm increasing my position here as a head but at the same time there's something really interesting and weird that's happening and this is the second thing that's happening with price action and it has to do with tech stocks folks tech stocks are starting to blow up again and this is really weird because remember the whole point of me saying i think there's going to be an inflection to the downside was to suggest that tech stocks would do well so i'm like 80 invested in tech stocks or fintech stocks a firm i'm in on this thing at a cost basis of like 95 uh maybe even less i could because something like 88 dollars because i just kept adding adding adding adding i bought a little bit then i bought more and i bought more and more more anyway so uh the thing's at 150 dollars right now it's insane it's just run run run run run it's crazy uh end phase i've added like crazy to this in the dips over here now we're coming back to 173 we're on a run again i've got over uh somewhere around nine and a half million dollars of tesla this thing has been on a straight run up in just the last two months and you're seeing it over and over look at sofi another fintech company that's blowing up here recently you got a nice trend up look at matterport another one of my massive favorite holds this thing has totally left its summer channel over here this was ipo insanity and momentum but it's finally getting a fundamental liftoff in its pricing and so we're seeing this really cool transition which you're not seeing in everything like you look at something like docusign you're actually seeing a little bit of a bleed down as coveted fears are going away and the stay-at-home traders are kind of exiting positions like docusign that's okay i mean i'd like docusign to be cheaper so i can actually build a real position in this but uh otherwise you're seeing some good growth in some of my favorite favorite stocks so in a weird way it's almost as if we're potentially still seeing the start of an end of 2021 rally even though we didn't get the inflection point in inflation yet which is crazy because it's like wait a minute we thought the inflection down in inflation would lead to a rally instead what ended up happening is the catalyst the major fear catalyst of things like evergrand uh the debt ceiling the budget deficit the infrastructure packages the taper all these things happen and uncertainty escaped our market like now there's nothing to really be fearful of anymore at least like near-term there's really nothing where people are like oh this is it this is the next big catalyst for a crash right a lot of fear and uncertainty has escaped so we're seeing this sort of rally but the other thing that's crazy and this blows my mind as well is the 10-year treasuries and 10-year break-even rates are starting to rotate down again when they've certainly capped so take a look at this if we go over here to a one-month chart we can kind of see this capping of the 10-year treasury yield with a dick with a peak around 1.61 which is way lower than that 1.75 ish that we had at the beginning of the year so we never got back to those levels and more recently which is amazing we're seeing a decline after getting higher than expected cpi data why because folks the market knows yes yes inflation is here it's going to last longer but we're not going to hyperinflate we've got a very strong and efficient economy let's invest in the tech companies that have high profit margins that have cleaned up their workforces and have a more efficient workforce that are investing in better supply chains because i'll tell you we're going to look back at 2021 we're going to look back and go damn that was the year to just buy buy buy because in my opinion in the years going forward we'll look back and go man how did these companies get so freaking efficient how did they get their margins up so high no guarantees the market could fall it could slow down and all this but i've put almost all of the cash i have into technology and crypto about six to seven percent crypto 80 in tech stocks and uh then then of course a little bit of cash uh to pay some taxes but uh folks i'm very very very optimistic i'm optimistic about what i'm seeing in the bond market for treasuries predicting that slowdown in inflation in the future the market's accepting that inflation is going to be here for longer and while inflation's going to be here for longer we're pushing crypto up that makes sense and this is the cool thing that i love we're actually also participating in potentially that end of 2021 rally in tech stocks going up because of tina there is no alternative tina like why would you invest in a dying company or something that's not innovating when you could invest in a big fat innovator something that has really good profit margins now that's not to be confused with a company that's losing money hand over fist and is speculative some of the newer specs the newer companies dangerous you got to be careful but the big boys the ones with really good profit margins particularly some of my favorites and phase etsy tesla's margins their gross margins are amazing affirm even though they're losing money these are companies to pay attention to very very excited i i can't be more excited for your future and i'm really happy with all the decisions that i made so far even though i was wrong about the inflection point in inflation the market is reacting better than i could have expected so there you have an update if you like my thoughts and perspectives ]