Bill Gross on Jerome Powell as Fed Chair and Bond Yields

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2017년 11월 블룸버그 방송에서 빌 그로스는 미 경제가 금융위기 여파를 대부분 벗어났다고 진단했으며, 성장률 3% 이상의 견조한 경기를 근거로 들었다. 아시아와 중국에서는 잠재적 위기가 남아 있다고 경고했다. 연준 차기 의장 후보(파월)에 대해서는 모델 중심보다 주관적·구조적 요인(인구, 기술, 세계화)을 중시하는 인물이 낫다고 평가했다. 다만 트럼프의 임명 성향(비둘기파 전망)에 따라 달라진다고 봤다. 장단기 금리차(수익률 곡선) 평탄화에 대해서는 과거처럼 곧바로 경기침체 신호로 보지 않으면서도, 레버리지가 큰 미국 경제에서는 추가 20~30bp 긴축만으로도 둔화를 유발할 수 있다고 봤다. 수익률 곡선 역전 지점(2y-10y 약 40~50bp 수준 언급)이 경기 둔화 우려의 기준이 될 수 있다고 설명했다. 연준이 추가로 금리를 과도하게 올리면 성장 둔화 위험이 있으므로 신중해야 한다고 주장했다. 신용비용(모기지, 기업대출, 국채)과 명목 GDP 성장 간 관계가 핵심이며, 현재는 명목성장률 4% 이상으로 신용비용이 지지적이라고 봤다. 양적완화(QE)가 신용 확장을 뒷받침해 왔으나, 금리 40~50bp 상승과 곡선 평탄화가 겹치면 신용 여건이 악화될 수 있다고 우려했다. 세제개편과 재정적자에 대해서는 단기적으로 큰 영향은 없을 수 있다고 봤으나, 장기적으로는 부채가 문제라며 낮은 부채를 선호한다고 밝혔다. 공화당이 재정 적자에 대한 입장을 바꾼 점을 비판했다. 이 영상에서 특정 자산의 1~3개월 방향에 대한 명시적 가격 예측은 없다.

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01. you know I really want to talk about the broader fabric we see the u6 number come in 27.9% are we at a point where the financial crisis and the labor crisis of that disaster is behind us well I think so you know to the extent that we've got a little room to to to lower if a crisis appears over the horizon to the extent that quantitative easing might come back yeah I think we've got some ammunition and in fact we do Tom have a a decently as economists would call it robust economy with growth at 3% plus at least for the last two quarters despite these rather disappointing employment numbers so I I think we're past the crisis certainly in most of the world most of the developed world but we have a potential crisis I think in Asia and in China going forward you were more than generous to be with us here on Fed Day I did ask you about Jerome Powell I'll be nice bill you maybe it's because the San Francisco 49ers are doing so poorly this year but you weren't polite about it you didn't mince words we thank you for that about the next chairman of the Fed you heard him speak yesterday how can economist sis assist Jerome Powell to a better fed well I think a certain kind of economist can assist your own pile and that that depends of course on the appointments going forward you know Trump's got three and certainly for I think as Janet Yellen probably will resign this is Fed Chairman and chair women do in tradition and so he's got four appointments going forward he can pack the court so to speak just my kitchen like FDR and it it depends on his appointments going forward whether they're doves or hawks and I presume that they'll be doves and so what can we learn from that when they're appointed you know potential you can learn in my view at least that there are subjective factors longer-term structural factors such as demographics of place such as technology advancement and displacement of labor of play and ongoing globalization's we can learn from those things as opposed to the old fashioned models such as the Taylor rule and others in the Phillips curve that you know have been failing us for the past 10 15 20 years I hope you appoints someone with a more subjective as opposed to a model driven views here's the key question Bill Gross and we thank you for joining us on radio and television this morning with Janice Henderson if we have low-rate Janet if we have low-rate J and we have yield curves flattening 10 30 s flattening twos 10s flattening what is that signal to Bill Gross if you see flatter yield curves in the zeitgeist of a low rate of Central Bank well if flatter curve is not a positive and let's look at it this way since you know 2011 and that takes us way back but you know the the 210 curve was 450 basis points and now it's about a hundred or less and so it's flattened considerably since then has that made a difference not really but in my view at some point it will typically you know economists and strategists say it's got to go flat before a recession appears I would say in a highly levered economy with a lot of debt then that's typifies the u.s.

02. that we don't have to go flat that perhaps another 20 30 basis points of tightening would be enough in order to induce certainly a slowdown in the economy and I think central banks and the Fed itself has to be careful in terms of using historical standards to judge monetary policy I don't think they can raise interest rates too much further before there's the potential to slow economic growth this is absolutely critical folks what mr.

03. grosse is senior Jason I want you to come over here we're doing this on the fly and we look Jason wheel around here and I want to show what Bill Gross is talking about right now here's the yield curve and down here are recessions we're coming in like this and Bill Gross where do we get on the yield curve where it becomes a recession indicator where it's 72 basis points how many basis points are we away where we flip from optimism to a real concern about economic slowdown yeah I think around 40 or 50 I don't see your chart but I know what you talking and you know that indicates you know perhaps another 50 basis points in terms of Fed Funds and maybe ten basis points higher intends to produce that type of number you know the critical element and all of this is really the cost of credit and what cost of credit and we're talking about mortgages we're talking about corporate loans we're talking about you know government bonds to a certain extent the cost of credit relative to you know the nominal growth and GDP we have better nominal growth we have four percent plus nominal growth now and the cost of credit you know is been supportive of that it's certainly quantitative easing has been supportive of that to the extent that we don't have QE to the extent that interest rates go up by forty or fifty basis points in your curve flattens by thirty or forty then all of a sudden the cost of credit and the absence of credit growth as typifies by QE become factors and so I think I think the Fed has right careful I know I know they think they have to be careful I mean we're gonna do this I'm gonna make a chart up here for Bloomberg radio also for John Farrow I'm gonna make up a chart here to show that tip point a forty to fifty basis points Bill Gross on tax reform you've got to live with it can you live with a 1.5 trillion deficit add-on or do you believe as Adam foes and believes and imposing that we could go out to eight to two trillion dollar add-on well you know here's this is a funny one in it and it's a you know I'm just starting to rethink this town because we've seen you know not necessarily deficits expanding but central bank's buying trillions and trillions of dollars with a debt and then recycling the interest rates back to the central government and so you know do deficits matter I think ultimately do they do we talked to a few days ago about you know the the present value of all of our liabilities including Social Security and Medicare and Medicaid it's you know perhaps instead of eighteen trillion it's perhaps 7080 trillion of course debt matters but in the short-term I don't think it matters that much and you know we're moving to a fiscally stimulative type of environment as opposed to a monetary stimulative type of environment and perhaps that's what we need but ultimately some a believer and low debt as opposed to high debt and it's incredible to me you know this - that the Republican orthodoxy has simply changed from fiscal doves to fiscal Hawks and to a deficit deniers to deficit supporters at the the entire party is flip-flopped