저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
소비자 신용 증가(카드·리볼빙 연 34%)와 고소득층 지출 강세를 근거로 소비 둔화가 아직 아니라고 진단. Visa·Harley-Davidson·Kraft·Chipotle 실적을 인용해 수요 견조, 가격 선반영 인상 흐름 강조. 경기침체 지표는 아직 없다고 봄.
다듬은 글
hey everyone me kevin here market update okay we've got to talk about consumers we'll also talk about extra because this video is brought to you by extra but first let's get into consumers i want to talk about the federal reserve regarding their view of consumers and information that they just released and also some recent earnings calls because i think they're really important watching the consumer is really critical right now and a course member uh wanted to point out this point this particular line out to me and i thought it's great so every thursday the federal reserve releases which what's known as an h8 and they noticed that in the month of uh march here uh consumer loans in the form of credit cards or other revolving plans had jumped 34 uh and this was really interesting so we pulled this report up in the course member live stream which if you ever want to join growth uh and overall consumer loans went up at about a rate this is an annualized rate so when you see these numbers this is not how much they went up in a month it's the annualized rate that they went up and so we went up at an annualized rate of consumer debt of 23 in march and 34 in credit card and revolving debt now i don't know if that's like i mean to me it sounds like good news for a firm but it also sounds like there's a little bit more pressure on the underlying consumer for potentially lower income individuals right this morning we talked about visa earnings and what we learned from visa was actually really really shocking and just to sort of digress to that for a moment uh visa told us that pent-up demand for travel is very very high that there are early indications that spending is going to be very good that they're bullish on how fast things have recovered and as you saw in in january the recovery has been very robust but beyond that some of the shockers from visa which relate to this kind of spending where that debit and credit card spend was up 45 percent uh from sorry what do we got here uh april spend was up 45 from three years ago this is incredible three years ago uh being not 21 20 but 19 right we're comparing to 2019 it's crazy to think that that's uh uh you know three years ago but anyway look at this e-commerce spend e-commerce folks both domestic and cross-border has remained strong and stable relative to trend lines and the other thing they talked a lot about in their earnings report was that affluent customers were spending more money so it kind of makes me wonder is there this possibility that uh the affluent customers are spending more and that poor customers are spending less right here it is in q2 affluent credit card spending was well above 2019 levels and this is what they regularly talked about in their earnings report and so when we look at this fed report here it's kind of interesting because it's like well consumer loans are going up at the fastest annual pace we've seen this year sort of we zoom out over here when we look at the prior quarters of the annualized rates of increases in loans nowhere do you see anything even over 20 percent and all of a sudden you see an explosion over here in consumer debt even as affluent customers are spending more so it's probably those making less than seventy thousand under fifty thousand dollars a year those are probably the ones the individuals unfortunately getting saddled with more debt here which is not good but then makes you wonder like if the wealthier people just keep spending could that keep us out of a recession i have no idea you know but these are things to pay attention to this is an inflection point that i definitely want to pay attention to but i also want to pay attention uh to what we're hearing from uh from other sort of maybe more discretionary purchase items right because we look at the manheim used vehicle index what do we see we see used car prices going down the manhunt vehicle index was one of the reasons we saw uh inflation core inflation cpr fall well not fall but but inflate at a much lower rate we were going up at a rate of an annualized rate of about 3.6 percent which is really really low and a lot of that was almost entirely uh it was this was below expectations was driven by used car prices falling they've been falling for about the last uh two months or so so very interesting that you've got these used car prices falling you see which is deflationary right you see or disinflationary you should say you see consumer debt going up while at the same time people are still spending money like crazy but i want to show you this other earnings report because it tells us something interesting as well but of course i do want to mention that if you want to build your credit to make sure you get into real estate when it starts getting juicy to buy real estate you'll know when i'm buying real estate again make sure you build your credit with the extra debit card check out the extra debit card by going to medkevin.com extra via the link down below and you could get yourself this debit card which is super amazing because it could potentially help you build your credit score what they do is when you spend money on this by linking it to an existing bank account they will spot you the money over a business evening pay it off the next day from your bank account because it's like a debit card you're spending money you have right but because it goes through this guise of being a credit card boom they could report it to the credit bureaus as balances paid so check it out medkevin.com extra stay away from credit card debt and consider them uh instead kevin.com extra okay so the earnings report uh a call that i want to refer to uh has to do with harley davidson now there are a few more reports we're going to look at here i'm going to talk about chipotle i'm going to talk about craft and t-mobile and and some others brief touch on end phase and google but i really want to talk about uh what we saw going on at harley-davidson so uh first of all harley-davidson is not yet seeing a decline in in or an increase in inventory in fact inventory levels are still down 24 and they're getting so much demand uh that they're actually really confident about uh their business going forward now see some folks like to say oh but kevin earnings reports are lagging indicators i'm like maybe the earnings report themselves are because that makes sense you know here we are on april 27th talking about jan 1 to jan or to march 31 right that's old news but you know what's current news is when you get this demand signals are strong we're getting from our dealers that confirm the signals we're getting from our dealers confirm that demand for product is very strong these are leading indicators or or at least current indicators right they're telling you that right now at this moment us as executives of a business that sells goods and services are seeing spending go up which reiterates what we saw at jpmorgan it reiterates what we saw at delta reiterates what we saw at american express visa everyone who's reporting is like the consumer spending more now part of me gets concerned that does that mean we're like an o6 all over again right but in addition to seeing this demand what i thought was quite fascinating was uh they talk about continuing to deal with the semiconductor shortage and dealing with those cost inflationary pressures which are actually what they call similar or consistent with what they experience in the back half of 2021 so in other words no big improvement there yet on the semiconductor front and they do show that there's a continuing high demand and reservation request for their products so this is a really good sign that you know people are not fully cutting back on those discretionaries yet now i know consumer discretionary stocks are getting destroyed because everybody thinks the consumer is going to pull back but like visa told us e-commerce is still doing well and this is so weird because it makes me wonder like is this an opportunity to get into uh you know ecom stocks that have just gotten decimated i don't know yet uh but it's something i'm paying attention to because look at this it's a mix because e-commerce turns out oh well this has to do with ticket sizes we talked about that a little bit this morning but look at this regarding inflationary times right quote net net it's a positive for us inflation we have not seen any impact on discretionary spending that we can discern keep in mind they make up 43 of the markets spend on cards that's insane if anything discretionary spending especially from affluent customers and credit card holders has been going up quite healthily it's crazy absolutely crazy so what do we learn when we go to some of the others i'm going to give you a little bit more of a summary over here uh first craft confident about our production but we are also growing consumption that is for their warehousing and rebuilding their inventory levels and they believe that by rebuilding their inventory levels they're actually going to be able to sell more product because demand is still consistent despite the fact that they're raising prices so they see a lot of elasticity of demand in other words people are not dropping off uh because of of their pricing now another thing that's really cool that or i don't know if it's cool but it's happening is businesses are actually pricing ahead of inflation a little bit so let's draw that out for a minute and try to understand that so watch this okay so let's say this is january right here and and you're the ceo and you're like ah crap inflation's doing this uh why don't we set a pricing uh regime that says hey we're matched with inflation let's say right now why don't we just shoot ahead of the running gear so to speak and uh and start raising our pricing like this so that way when we hit these inflationary times rather than reacting to the higher inflation we've already raised our prices and we can kind of like let the inflation grow into our pricing and then hopefully that that inflation comes down and then we're good with our pricing right that's crazy that craft is telling you that they're doing this but they're not the only one tesla does the same thing elon was just saying that on his earnings call that they're pricing ahead of inflation they're anticipating the inflation and pricing in uh hopefully that's good news that in the future we would get some kind of like reduction or fall right uh but uh who knows so anyway that's that's quite interesting for kraft for uh chipotle uh same thing over here they're seeing a lot of commodity inflation to the tune of 12 to 13 food inflation is in the 31 range which is uh also quite uh quite wild there it is a 31 uh another thing from chipotle's report that was quite interesting was over here which was that chipotle's margins at 25 dude that's incredible now i they do mean gross margins right because usually with a business you're taking down like 10 to the bottom line let me give you their current bottom line margins but still that's a pretty amazing margin yeah okay so they're aiming for 25 wall street has them at 23.4 gross profit their net margin is closer to 10.2 so that's a little bit more along expectations a lot of higher costs for beef avocados paper labor costs going up about 140 bips they repurchase stock at 14.90 so it gives you a little bit of a feeling in terms of where the executives feel the value might be for for the company and then they're also working on an autonomous robot called chippy which makes chips because i guess the employees don't like making chips so they're like fine we'll we'll make a robot that'll make the chips for you but here's a big one right here look at this and this right here is the big one for consumers i mean obviously says the ceo what we've seen is very little resistance for pricing so far the consumer's like all right inflation stuff's getting more expensive yeah this is annoying but still gonna spend broskie it's uh remarkable so look none of these are recessionary indicators right these these could be cons there could be concerns that maybe this is the big spend that happens before a recession but remember for you to get a recession you need you need negative spend you need people pulling back uh and we're not seeing it yet so far and that's why i tweeted something i made this i mean i stole the picture but then i put the text over it okay so i'm trying to take credit for this because i thought of it but i like it i actually think it's very appropriate so the left here is what we saw in 2020.
i remember making videos in 2020 and people like kevin this is stupid like the economy is on fire and the stock market's acting like a child on a swing like why is it so disconnected from reality right and uh what do we have right now look at this 2020 stock market on frickin fire as in bad and the economy is what's doing well anyway check out extra via the link down below in the programs and building wealth and we'll see in the next one bye
Comments 0