저자: Kevin · 외국인
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결론: 마이클 버리가 SEC 소환장을 받았지만, 게임스탑 지지 자체는 불법이 아니며 SEC가 보고서 작성을 앞두고 시장조작 여부를 점검하는 절차로 보인다. 사건 배경: 2021년 1월 28일 게임스탑 숏스퀴즈로 주가가 급등했고, 로빈후드 등 브로커의 매수 제한으로 랠리가 꺾였다. 버리는 과거 금융위기 때 주택시장에 베팅한 전력이 있으며, 이번에는 게임스탑 강세 쪽에 베팅했다고 언급된다. SEC 소환장: 버리가 SEC 소환장을 받았다고 트윗했다는 보도가 있으나, 이는 소송이 아니라 증거나 증언을 요구하는 절차다. 발언자는 SEC의 역할이 투자가 '좋은' 것이 아니라 '공정한' 것인지 확인하는 데 있다고 설명한다. 시장조작 판단 기준: 발언자는 SEC의 펌프앤덤프 사례를 소개하며, 허위·근거 없는 호재 발표와 내부자의 주식 집중 보유 후 홍보로 가격을 올리는 행위가 문제라고 본다. 단순 매매나 실적 기반 투자는 조작이 아니라고 설명한다. 소환 이유 추정: 발언자는 SEC 위원장 게리 겐슬러가 1월 28일 전후 사태 전체를 다룬 보고서를 낼 예정이라 이 과정에서 버리의 매매 근거를 확인하려는 것으로 본다. 버리의 게임스탑 보유 비중은 약 2.5% 수준으로 언급된다. 발언자 판단: 발언자는 버리가 잘못한 것은 없고, 기본적 가치를 믿고 투자했을 뿐이며, 이번 조사는 절차상 빈틈을 메우는 과정이라고 본다. 비용은 들겠지만 문제는 없을 것이라는 입장이다. 버리 향후 전망: 발언자는 버리가 채권시장에 숏 포지션을 취하고 있으며, 연준의 테이퍼링 발표가 그 베팅에 유리한 재료가 될 수 있다고 말한다. 게임스탑 주가: 1월 28일 480달러 부근까지 올랐다가 100달러 중반대로 떨어졌고, 발언 시점에는 100달러 후반대에서 움직인다.
다듬은 글
hey everyone kevin here so a lot of people have been reaching out over the last hour here because michael bury has received a subpoena from the sec and now people are asking me kevin why is michael berry getting sued why is it that if you support a movement like gamestop you get sued but melvin capital and citadel can get away with essentially murdering the portfolios of millions of retail investors why is it always the suits that get away but not the bullish ones why do they get dragged into litigation to where now michael berry and his investment firm have to hire a law firm i'm sure they already have one but hire their attorneys to represent them against a involvement with the sec nobody wants to deal with the sec the sec is not looking to give everybody gift baskets they're looking for fault well i'm going to talk about my thoughts in terms of what is going on here and why this is happening i do want to give you a quick recap by now you probably already know that things went crazy on my birthday with gamestop uh gamestop on january 28th went essentially to the moon and uh only didn't continue its path to the moon because well retail traders weren't able to continue the squeeze thanks to multiple brokerages like robinhood a weeble and many others restricting the purchasing of gamestop shares in what has amounted to one of the largest short squeezes since the epic 2008 short squeeze of volkswagen which which also ironically relates to michael bury because michael bury is known for the big short where he saw the madness and the insanity of the housing market and bet against the housing market in 2008 which was a housing market propped up by a substantial amount of fraud and liar loans and saw the big collapse coming he was right about that and so when he supported gamestop as something that should not be shorted took the opposite bet and made a bullish case for gamestop even though he called the insane ramp up of two of january 28th excessive he was a supporter of gamestop and now michael bury is in question with the sec and so again this is leading to those questions like why why is somebody who's supportive of gamestop getting getting mixed into another case here with the sec or an investigation by the sec let's take a look at the documentation here so michael bury whose bullish stance on gamestop helped lay the foundation for the retail investor frenzy see notice how what bloomberg has even done here this is uh reported on finance yahoo finance but it was a first publicized uh published by bloomberg nothing that matters so much but anyway uh notice what they've done they've kind of actually credited michael bury in part to some of the reason gamestop is running uh and this is actually going to relate very much to what i believe is happening here uh but michael burry said friday that he has received a subpoena from the sec it's important to know this is not a lawsuit this is just basically calling you to either provide evidence in writing or verbal testimony or some form of testimony to provide evidence in front of a court or an investigative body or both michael bury tweeted so who got an sec subpoena over gamestop actually i know they're on my subpoena with all that's going on in the world and then of course this links to a twitter picture that does not exist because michael burry posts his tweets and then deletes them michael bury also has me blocked on twitter uh yeah he didn't like the fact that i uh sent him an eggplant emoji when he said he was shorting tesla but anyway a michael bury by the way also shorting kathy wood kathy wood by the way also slapped back saying that michael berry must not understand innovation uh but anyway so okay michael burris got this subpoena what does this mean and what's going on okay so this is my opinion because obviously we do not have all of the details of this investigation but we do know what the sec does the sec looks to make sure that there is not fraud and manipulation and misrepresentation in our securities markets this is very very important so for example this is why the sec has started looking into stable coins because when we hear stable coins and we're told they're valued at a dollar and there are assets on hand worth at least the dollar cash on hand worth at least a dollar cash equivalents then there better be otherwise that would be misrepresentation right the sec tries to provide that sort of confidence to people so that way they continue to participate in the market because the last thing the sec wants is people to throw their hands up and go that's it i'm not going to participate in a rigged market now many of us still believe that markets are rigged but at least the sec is trying to do their best to minimize that now the sec this is an important phrase here okay write this one down if you need to this is very very important and no it is not that the coupon code is expiring tonight for the programs on building your wealth but you could write that one down too the phrase is the sec's job is to make sure an investment is a fair investment not necessarily a good investment notice the difference you could publish the financial reports of a horribly run crappy company and the sec can still approve those as long as they're true right as long as they're not fraudulent now the sec obviously has limitations in terms of how much how much they can determine whether things are truth or fraud they're not full financial auditors for companies although if you believe what's happening in china then you'll also lose a lot of faith in auditing anyway with evergrand the fact that you could pass an audit in the spring and essentially declare bankruptcy five months later yeah that's a little sus but anyway take a look at this if you go to the sec.gov website they've got a little bit of detail in terms of market manipulation and uh specifically what we want to look for here in my opinion would be a pump and dump and so they have a uh an example here of a pump and dump here we go category one okay so uh worth taking a look at this so insiders or promoters obtain ownership or control of a significant block of stock or a selected issuer they then start hyping the stock to the public to generate artificial interest in the stock and cause the price to rise and the company or promoter could potentially then put out a press release announcing some form of market moving news that is not true or without legitimate basis and i read these two paragraphs here about the pump and sort of the dumb because a lot of what happens with the sec is they're looking for some very key things number one they're looking for things that are not true or without a legitimate basis so for example if you are a day trader and you're buying something and selling something well that's a legitimate basis you're going into something and you're going out of something if you are somebody who uh is investing in a stock and uh this stock goes up on news and then you sell and take profits that's not pumping and dumping you're just trading right but what if now you look for a micro cap company you know something that's trading for i don't know two pennies or something like that and then you put out a research report that says this company just innovated let's say it came out with solid state batteries functioning solidly working solid-state batteries kind of like quantum scape that hype we had initially but they only have lab tested uh solid-state batteries nothing actually in a form that we could actually use or just sort of lab batteries well that would probably cause that two-cent stock to turn into something very very expensive but if that was false or misleading or not true then that would be wrong that's where the sec comes in and says hey this is my market manipulation that's when people get fried that's when people get arrested they go to jail they get fined so why would gamestop send a subpoena to michael bury well two reasons number one gary gensler is expected to issue a full report on what happened on the days around january 28th between gamestop melvin citadel the dtcc all of the the departments and and agencies or corporations involved in the madness that transpired with the game stop short squeeze where gamestop went from a 40 stock to a 480 8 stock i believe 488 and then fell right back down to the mid 100s now sitting around the upper 100s well my belief is that because this report is coming the sec wants to make sure that they show and provide confidence to society that they have fully investigated every possible angle related to the s or the game stop short squeeze and if there's somebody with a reputation like michael berry for making big bets somebody who has you know about two and a half percent of their fund invested in gamestop then it would make sense and somebody who's been publicly vocal about supporting the gamestop uh you know push in the valuation of gamestop then it would make sense that gary gensler the chairperson the sec would at least want to rule out any potential for manipulation or untrue uh you know pumping essentially and then potentially was there any dumping was there any selling hey let's see evidence let's see evidence of your trades let's see evidence of your analysis why did you make the purchase why did you sell uh what research do you believe in whatever really uh and and this is then an opportunity for the sec to include in their report which i will be going through with a very fine fine comb to uh to sort of analyze hey what the heck actually happened in the eyes of the sec and i would expect that the sec is going to look at michael bury and provide evidence that hey look here's somebody who fundamentally believed in the value of the stock just like deep f in value fundamentally believed in value of the stock talked about that saw the excesses uh that happened but still held on and there you go that's it that puts the michael bury issue to rest i really think this michael bury issue is just about making sure that all of the bases are covered i don't personally believe that michael bury did anything wrong even though i sent him an eggplant and i think it was wrong that he blocked me i don't think he did anything wrong by fundamentally supporting gamestop and if anything i actually see this as a good thing i see this as the sec making sure they're covering their bases they're not leaving any stone unturned uh i think michael berry will be totally fine probably going to cost them some money obviously to go through this in a protected manner and then we'll all be back to watching for michael bury's next big short which keep in mind while his rk big short might not pay off super big he is also shorting the treasury's market and the latest announcement from the federal reserve on tapering that's going to print some attendees for michael berry short of the bond market so hey michael bury if you're watching this unblock me or don't i don't care thanks everyone so thanks so much for watching consider subscribing if you like this content and folks we'll see in the next video thanks you
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