저자: MeetKevin · 외국인
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연준 파월 의장 발언을 분석하며, 인플레이션 기대와 금리 동결 가능성, 기술 발전에 따른 새로운 대안정(great moderation) 가능성을 강조. 긴축적 금리 수준 도달 및 정책 금리 인상 확률 하락 언급. 부채한도 협상은 정치적 쇼로 보고 단기 시장 하락 우려에 반박하며 주식 재진입을 권유. 인플레이션이 여전히 문제라는 반론 데이터는 없다고 주장.
다듬은 글
Federal Reserve just had some incredible things to say and here's what you need to know about what happened first something of course the media is not covering Jerome Powell said this very powerful statement listen very closely to this and we'll get into some of the other very important things that Jerome Powell said he said quote Alan Greenspan who was the FED chairperson back in the 80s after volcker quote famously said that pervasive uncertainty was the defining characteristic of the policy landscape now it's worth remembering that Alan Greenspan made those comments during what we now think of as the great moderation that statement has never been more apt than it is today that right there is the most powerful quote of Jerome Powell quoting Alan Greenspan or really of any of the quotes that Jerome Powell has given us ever because this right here just revealed what Jerome Powell truly believes about inflation now to understand this you have to remember what the great moderation is the great moderation is the last 40 Years of disinflationary pressures that we have seen that have actually led us to run inflation for the last decade before covid under two percent at around 1.75 to the point where the Federal Reserve was actively considering reducing the inflation Target they had to 1.75 percent because the idea of the Phillips curve which suggests that when unemployment is low you are going to create inflationary pressures was a very accurate tool for determining inflation yet that ended up being very false in fact in today's discussion Jerome Powell actually brought up the Phillips curve and said you know maybe we've kind of been looking at the wrong thing instead of looking at the Phillips curve we need to look at other aspects of unemployment to determine how much inflation we're going to have so for a moment if you're confused on Phillips curve ignore it if you want the quick take away just know that Phillips curve argues that the lower unemployment is the higher inflation should be that they this should be sort of a wall there but ignore that for a moment because Jerome Powell actually gives us a new tool one he's talked about before but he puts it in a new context He suggests that look there's a difference between four percent unemployment and four percent unemployment and this is actually a really powerful argument it's the second most powerful argument that Jerome Powell makes the first that we might he's hinting that we might actually be at the next start of a great disinflationary moderation driven by technology and smoother Supply chains that's long-term very bullish don't get me wrong I'm not suggesting there aren't reasons to be short-term bearish whether it's the debt ceiling or whatever other drama click bait you want to listen to that doesn't actually give you a dose of reality because remember there are two forms of negativity there's that negativity that's like oh my gosh somebody's saying the stock market's gonna crash here's why we don't think it's going to crash because of here the actual facts in the economy and then there's the other form of negativity which is just purely negative and doesn't seem to want to recognize reality but anyway so told us there's four percent unemployment and then there's four percent unemployment and what's the difference quits and vacancies see when people are willing to quit a lot because there are more vacancies there's a sign that employer employees labor believes they have pricing power and that leads to potentially an unanchored wage price spiral which is exactly what Ben Bernanke today said was part of the contribution to the failure of what happened in the 1970s and why the 1970s were so vastly different from the way well things are today and that's pretty critically important because most people as Jerome Powell put it today have not actually experienced inflation in their lifetimes before now that's a pretty powerful argument as well because it really begs the question of okay well if most people haven't experienced inflation before is it entirely possible then that people's expectations are wrong because right now it's seems like people have this feeling that oh no inflation's going to stick around how are you going to put the genie back in the bottle and I kid you not every single time every single time I make a video talking about inflation there are people in the comments who say I don't know man when I go to the grocery store prices are still high my gosh I really really really hope that by now you have watched enough of this channel to learn that is not how inflation works now I want to keep talking about the new stuff about what the Federal Reserve actually cares about and what's actually going on but let me just pause for a moment for unfortunately dare I say the people who haven't been educated by our school system and finance oh wait that's everybody uh the people who haven't been enlightened yet let me just quickly make the argument and I'm gonna make this very simple the Federal Reserve does not care how high your prices have gone it's depressing because yes insurance is more expensive the cost of uh employment whether that's uh for a nanny or daycare is all up vacations are up flights are up everything is up for but guess what that doesn't make any lick of a difference to the federal reserve's desire to control inflation going forward and that is very different from prices of the past so when we understand this we can understand that in the 1970s we had massive massively different thinking Paul Krugman from The New York Times actually put together an amazing piece on exactly this look at this chart with me for a moment in the early 70s economists thought that price controls could slow inflation down price controls are a way of saying oh no uh companies are price gouging let's just put a ceiling on how much they're allowed to charge on how much they're allowed to charge for gas and that'll stop inflation no that fails because you create massive shortages people have to pay with their time then the price controls become so politically unpopular that you remove the price controls and then you have even higher inflation than if you just let the free market freaking function but then you see here in the 70s and 80s we thought that you needed to raise unemployment to fight inflation that's actually a critical statement here because if you feel like you have to raise unemployment to reduce inflation you will force a dirty recession much like Paul volcker did but then we thought a good inflation Target was four percent but the reality is two percent was a better inflation Target this yellow line is inflation the blue line is unemployment this by the way from about uh Mr Greenspan's take over all the way uh the last 40 years over here to about 2017 well I mean realistically to about 2020.
all of this is deemed to be about the great moderation this this slow decline in inflation no matter what unemployment has done and we've realized and this is more for maybe the mathematicians we've realized that what actually causes inflation isn't printing money or high prices those don't cause inflation it is the rapid expansion of how fast you are printing money so it is the rate of acceleration well that is acceleration is right is your acceleration of money printing that causes inflation right let me try to just make that a little image okay if I print money like this Kim and printing money everything's good no inflation but if all of a sudden from 2020 to March of 2020 you all of a sudden go like and you start spinning the wheel a lot faster that is when you get inflation and then when you're like okay now I'm gonna slowly turn it back the theory going forward is that that should cause disinflation which I want to be very clear that doesn't mean prices for your stuff are going to go down it means prices stay at the high levels where they are and they actually go up they just go up at a slower level at a slower rate than previously now Paul Paul Krugman is not maybe the best example of somebody because a lot of people don't like him uh when it comes to talking about the Federal Reserve he's an economist but Ben Bernanke puts it very well and he says look we had massive issues in the 70s we didn't control inflation expectations and today the bond markets expectations of inflation are extremely low the problem is you have a little bit of a disconnect between the bond Market's expectation of inflation which is they studied Financial point of view on inflation and consumers expectations of inflation because again quote many are experiencing High inflation for the first time in their lives and people are fearful about high prices and that makes it very difficult to control a consumer's expectations of inflation because people don't understand inflation that's why I have to continue to explain some of these basic concepts Concepts I feel like over and over again because I regularly but captain and those are your Bears a lot of them those are the people that are sitting on the sidelines in cash like no man I'm not I'm all convinced there's gonna be another leg down there's gonna be a double dip whatever like do whatever you want with your money but listen to what Jerome Powell said remember I don't really care what you do with your money I just want you to succeed and so I want you to have the best information possible and in my opinion the best information possible is that Jerome Powell just implied we could be at the start of the next great moderation let me read you that again and then I want to get to some other really critical things that he said especially about restrictive policy rates and a pause okay ready so once again pervasive uncertainty was the defining characteristic of the policy landscape of the Allen Greenspan era it's worth remembering that that comment was made during a period of what we now think of as the great moderation and what do we have today pervasive uncertainty we have no idea what's coming next well we have some good ideas but things could end up wrong and the FED has been wrong before I mean even just this chart that I showed you shows the FED just doesn't have the best track record so it's not like I want to be a shill for the Federal Reserve you and saying oh they were wrong all these times they were wrong about price controls they were wrong about unemployment they were wrong about four percent uh you know they were wrong about all the money printing that happened over here they were wrong about four percent unemployment or below four percent unemployment causing inflation and it didn't uh you know and so they've been wrong in the past and it's okay to say that the point is they're taking all of those lessons of the past and they're doing their best at least not to repeat these mistakes and so at least by not repeating these mistakes what do we know we're not going to get price controls we're probably not going to get a pole volcker and that's why the stock market is rising in we probably don't need to care that the unemployment rate is below four percent in fact Jerome Powell gave us the formula he said look and I didn't finish this point for a reason because now it makes more sense remember how I told you Jerome Powell said there's a difference between four percent unemployment and four percent unemployment that's because four percent unemployment in 2018 was matched with a jolts reading that was one to one in other words you had just as many unemployed people as you had job openings so people had less pricing power in 2021 there were two times as many job openings as there were unemployed people meaning labor had pricing power leading to potentially fears of a wage price spiral that is bad unsustainable and that leads Services inflation to keep running robustly that however is starting to shrink the jolt's measure of inflation is starting to shrink you're starting to see companies actually worried about their ability to raise prices at all anymore whether it's Consumer Staples your targets your Walmart Foot Locker these companies are starting to panic they're realizing they can't raise prices anymore as they were now if you're part of our course member livestreams you already know this because it's not just me trying to tell it to you every day we just look at the data and the facts we look at earnings calls every day and we do fundamental analysis every single day and I teach you how to do fundamental analysis on companies where we're like oh damn palantiers balance sheet is really robust right the day before earnings what happens skyrockets after that oh wow open doors really oversold this could be a really good temporary Trade because the fundamentals are phenomenal and they just burn the they're Bond holders which is good for shareholders but nobody read the 8K except I did and so what happened Open Door skyrocketed what about bill.com well the fundamentals and even as a SAS business price to sales ratios are looking really good here what happened skyrockets on earnings it's not perfect all the time I'm just saying some of the fundamental analysis is actually really functional you want to pay attention to it so if you don't know about it yet link down below but what else did we learn from j-pal and Ben Bernanke well first jeromepal actually said this time that interest rates are restrictive in his last press conference at the fomc meeting afterwards here in may he said we think we might be at a sufficiently restrictive level of interest rates today he said we are and this led the Futures monitor for interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve to dump from a 36 chance of a 25 basis point hike all the way down to a 13.8 percent chance now while it's very difficult to forecast what future shocks could really screw up inflation Jerome Powell gave us a beautiful outline he said consider the following positive Supply shocks exist just like negative Supply shocks the pandemic showed us how broken our supply chains could become very quickly with a massive increase in demand that was a negative Supply shock that followed massive money printing but we don't expect that to repeat because we're not going to burn money at that rate again hopefully and at the same time positive Supply shocks exist like technology which wow reiterates the whole argument that we might see the start of a new great moderation potentially even driven by AI this is Wallace and why I'm releasing a course on June 1st that's actually part of an existing course so existing members are getting that totally for free on how to actually use artificial intelligence as a productive human rather than just oh my God they're all these AI tools those so cool how do we actually apply this to work well I don't know like I will teach you anyway from a business point of view anyway uh and if I could do it you could do it which is great they just need guidance on it anyway another thing is Jerome Powell told us that there are real one-time shocks that we had not only that pandemic money printing but also we don't expect another new invasion of a massive country into another country Russia into Ukraine right and on top of that you consider uh the increase of the global labor Supply that has normalized technology that obviously is a contributor to disinflation we're potentially in an you know dare I say okay path to see another great moderation cycle over the next 10 years now you might be frustrated and rightfully so over the inflation that we've seen But consider the distortions that the pandemic created look at this chart here this is uh again the Paul Krugman piece really actually good piece this morning in the New York Times I try to read all sources Wall Street Journal Fox CNN New York Times Financial Times Barons Bloomberg what I try I read everything just so I could understand every perspective but this really shows you the dark line of what actually happened this is what we thought would happen in the labor market a slow decline of Labor Force participation we have this uh you know V shape over here same thing over here with GDP oh Paul Kirkman made a great point on GDP he says look we could think GDP is one thing but then it ends up getting revised like we have a real issue with the data that we get and that creates a lot of uncertainty any joke that hey like if GDP or inflation numbers get revised can we revise what we did with rates obviously the answer to that is no but they're saying this because they're cognizant that there are two side risks here you could over tighten you could under tighten except Jerome Powell made it clear we have the luxury now of time that we've probably typed enough which again reiterates the zero BPI now of course the whole debt ceiling negotiation tanked the market a little bit but that's beside the point uh but anyway some of these charts are are really uh interesting in this talk about you know potentially a soft Landing or you know wages and comparing to the 1970s of of how wage Dynamics are so different today now of course the four most dangerous words in investing or this time is different but you have to study history otherwise you're doomed to repeat it and at least in my opinion I think the Federal Reserve is going to do everything in their power to to just not make those mistakes we could end up having the same result which would be a terrible Paul volckering you know crash but it doesn't seem to be the case right now especially since Jerome Powell also made it clear that in times of high uncertainty you can't actually provide as much of a forecast as you'd like because you actually remove optionality from the FED because this is really him saying if we start talking about how we're going to cut rates at the end of the year we take away our options of actually fighting inflation and people are all just going to go YOLO into the stock market and spending money again and we're going to create inflation again so he basically said that in so many words by saying yeah you know if we're too clear about forward guidance uh we we end up limiting our options and we risk creating problems and being misinterpreted uh he actually said that the best time for Clear forward guidance is when there's little uncertainty when you're at an effective lower bound like zero percent rates and you're just trying to suggest that that lower rate bound the zero percent rate is going to continue for sometime in the future that's a way of basically squeezing a sponge and getting more stimulus out of the market without actually reducing rates anymore but during times of uncertainty like those in which we're now it's actually not necessary to provide as clear of guidance because you could potentially hurt yourself more now regarding the debt ceiling thing really quickly you know there's this talk about Republicans walking out and each side the White House and Republicans calling the other stubborn there was supposed to be a framework for a deal this weekend I think this is all political you know posturing this is all bogus I really think this whole debt ceiling drama is going to pass and at the same time when we get that pause the next month assuming we don't get a reactivation of inflation if we get a debt ceiling passes and a pause I don't know what you're waiting for to get back into the stock market that is my personal bias I want to be clear about that but I mean please I'm I'm asking Bears daily to provide me data and facts that shows that inflation is still a problem and they got nothing nothing show me another company outside of maybe Aerospace that's actually showing massive price increases still coming this year it's not there Aerospace still has supply chain issues that's the pandemic linger you know of course you've got rapid demanded services for uh you know travel and hotels and labor but that's already starting to soften we know that in reading the earnings calls of companies that actually hire people anyway thanks so much for watching I wish you the best good luck out there I really want everybody to succeed and uh I I will continue doing my best for you thank you so much
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