저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
레이 달리오의 올웨더 포트폴리오를 ETF로 재현하는 방법과 장기 복리 효과를 설명하는 교육 영상이다. 포트폴리오 개념: 경기 사이클(성장 상승·하락, 인플레이션·디플레이션)에 관계없이 버티도록 상관관계가 낮은 자산군을 섞는 분산 전략이다. 주식이 오르면 채권이 빠지는 경향이 있어 상호 보완된다. 자산 배분: 장기채 40%, 미국주식 30%, 단기채 15%, 원자재 7.5%, 금 7.5%로 구성된다. 과거 성과: 최근 10년 연평균 복리 수익률 7.5%, 변동성(표준편차) 6% 수준이며 배당수익률은 약 1.5~2%로 제시된다. 중간 위험 포트폴리오로 평가된다. ETF 재현 방법: 장기채는 TLT(10년 기준 연 4.5%, 25년 7%), 미국주식은 VTI(10년 연 6.29%, 25년 9.8%), 단기채는 IEI(10년 연 1.8%, 25년 4.5%), 원자재는 GSG(10년 연 6.3%, 25년 0.6%), 금은 GLD(10년 연 1.1%, 25년 6.3%)를 제시한다. 발표자는 금은 실물 보유를 선호한다고 밝힌다. 복리 시뮬레이션: 연 7.5% 가정 시 1,000달러 일시 투자는 20년 후 약 4,461달러가 된다. 매월 100달러를 추가 적립하면 20년 후 약 59,834달러, 30년 후 약 144,166달러(원금 37,000달러)가 된다. 매주 250달러(월 1,000달러)를 30년간 적립하면 약 140만 달러가 된다. 리스크: 원자재는 변동성이 크다(표준편차 21~22%)는 점이 강조된다. 과거 수익률이 미래를 보장하지 않으며, 시뮬레이션은 수익률이 일정하다는 가정에 기반한다. 장기 투자 관점을 권장한다. 출연자 전망: 명시적인 자산 가격 방향 예측은 없고 장기 투자 원칙만 강조한다.
다듬은 글
or whether portfolio is modeled after the all-weather fund created by famous investor hedge fund manager and billionaire Ray dalio who is the founder of the world's biggest hedge fund firm Bridgewater Associates Ray dalio is a well-respected investor and his theory behind the all-weather portfolio is to build a portfolio that will survive the inevitable changing weather of economic Cycles whether that's a recession Rising inflation deflation and everything else in between it's designed to maximize diversification by investing in different asset classes for example when stock prices rise then typically what tends to happen is bond prices drop and vice versa when stocks are down bond prices usually go up so by investing in sectors that are uncorrelated your portfolio will be more susceptible to economic Cycles so what asset classes actually make up the all-weather portfolio the portfolio is made up with 40 in long-term bonds thirty percent in U.S stocks 15 in short-term bonds seven point five percent in Commodities and the other 7.5 percent is allocated to the beautiful precious metal that we call Gold now Ray dalera explains that each of these asset classes deal with changing economic Cycles differently you have inflation deflation Rising economic growth and declining economic growth based on these four economic Cycles or as Ray dalio puts it the four seasons of the economy this portfolio is designed to withstand the good times and the bad most people view this portfolio as a medium risk portfolio and over the last 10 years it has obtained a 7.5 compound annual return with a six percent deviation meaning its ups and downs which I will discuss in more detail shortly the dividend yield over the last 10 years has averaged around 1.5 to 2 percent which isn't the best yield but it's still better than having your money sitting in a bank account losing its purchasing power now if you wanted to recreate this portfolio for yourself you can do that by investing in different ETFs that match the asset classes in the portfolio which I will now explain in detail so if you know anything about ETFs then you have probably heard of Vanguard and ishares which are the two heavyweights in the ETF world so let's recreate the all-weather portfolio using ETFs that are available across these two platforms and how you can achieve the same results as Ray dalio by allocating your money into these exchange traded funds so starting off with the biggest position inside the all-weather portfolio which is 40 invested into long-term bonds the I shares 20-year plus treasury bond ETF ticker symbol TLT is a good option that fits the criteria for the all-weather portfolio now as the name of this ETF implies the majority of the fund's capital is allocated to U.S long-term bonds and the objective of this ETF as stated in the ishares website seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of U.S treasury bonds with remaining maturities greater than 20 years in the last 10 years the ishares TLT ETF saw a compound annual return of 4.5 percent with a 12 standard deviation and in the last 25 years that saw a compound annual return of seven percent with a 11.9 percent standard deviation in 2021 they distributed a 1.4 dividend yield the second biggest position in the portfolio allocates 30 percent to U.S stocks a good ETF that meets the criteria is the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF ticker symbol vti the objective of this fund seeks to track the performance of the crsp US total market index meaning the fund allocates its money according to that index which is made up of a variety of large cap mid cap and small capitalization equities Diversified across both growth and value stocks over the last 10 years this ETF obtained a 6.29 compound annual return with a 13.44 standard deviation and over the last 25 years I saw a 9.8 compound annual return with a 15.7 standard deviation in 2021 this ETF distributed a 1.5 dividend yield the third biggest position is 15 allocated to short-term U.S bonds the ice shares three to seven year treasury bond ETF with the ticker symbol iei as a good example that can be used it's self-explanatory in its objectives as it seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of a U.S treasury bonds with remaining maturities between three and seven years over the last 10 years this ETF obtained a 1.8 compound annual return with a 2.8 standard deviation and over the last 25 years it saw a 4.5 compound annual return with a 4.1 standard deviation in 2021 this ETF granted a 0.7 dividend yield and the last two positions is 7.5 percent allocated to Commodities and the other 7.5 percent allocated to Gold for a diversified commodity ETF the eyeshares SNP gsci commodity index with the ticker symbol GSC as a perfect fit for the all-weather portfolio in their last 10 years this ETF saw a 6.3 compound annual return with a 21.6 standard deviation and then the last 25 years it saw a 0.6 compound annual return with a 22.2 standard deviation now if you don't already know Commodities are very volatile which explains the high deviation and the other 7.5 percent is allocated to gold now I personally think that the only way one should invest in gold is to buy gold bullion whether that's gold bars or gold coins I prefer to have the physical gold rather than investing in gold stocks which is why I have started collecting gold in the form of jewelry and rare coins but if gold stocks are something that you would prefer then the spdr gold trust ATF ticker symbol GLD is a popular gold trust that you can invest in the objectives of the trust is designed to track the price of gold and in the last 10 years the GLD gold trust ETF saw a 1.1 compound annual return with a 15.1 standard deviation and in the last 25 years it saw a 6.3 compound annual return with a 16.3 standard deviation so that's exactly how you can recreate the all-weather portfolio using the exchange traded funds just mentioned and your returns will be on par but now let's look at what kind of returns you get from a 7.5 compound annual return which is on par with the all-weather portfolio if you were to invest a thousand dollars spread across the ETFs that we just discussed with the same percentage in each fund to match the all-weather portfolio without investing another dollar over 20 years that one thousand dollar investment would have grown to four thousand four hundred and sixty one dollars now if you to make regular deposits of one hundred dollars a month so twenty five dollars a week on top of your thousand dollar investment your investment plus regular deposits of twenty five dollars a week or one hundred dollars a month would grow to fifty nine thousand eight hundred and thirty four dollars and if you kept that up for 30 years keeping regular deposits of a hundred dollars a month your investment would grow to 144 166 dollars and you would have only deposited thirty seven thousand dollars over thirty years now let's go even bigger than that and if you could afford to deposit two hundred and fifty dollars per week or a thousand dollars per month into your portfolio that investment would be worth 1.4 million dollars after thirty years now that's the power of compounding interest the longer you stay invested the more the interest compounds which is why I personally follow the long-term investing approach for more videos on all things investing subscribe to this channel
Comments 0