저자: RamdevAgarwal · 외국인
요약 보기
인도 시장 낙관. 1)Motilal 글로벌 컨퍼런스에서 외국인 투자자들이 높은 밸류에이션 부담으로 진입을 망설이나 인도 비중이 MSCI 신흥국에서 늘며 패시브 자금 유입이 확대될 것이라 봄. 2)인도 은행 신용 성장 12~15% 지속 전망, 상업은행 총 NPA 약 2.5%·순NPA 약 6%로 건전. 3)2024년 실적이 15~17% 성장하면 외국인 복귀 가능. 4)특정 대형 기업(Japato 등) 퀵커머스 성장 긍정 평가, 1600 목표가 콜 관련 2lakh crore 시총은 고평가 부담이라 언급.
다듬은 글
Now the company's Joint MD Ramdev Agarwal and co-founder are joining us from the conference. Ramdev ji, welcome. In fact, we have been talking to your team members and some of the participants of that meet all day. There was a lot of action yesterday and today. The 20th conference I am sure is a success like you plan it, but what has been the biggest takeaway for you?
The management you have met and the investors you have talked to regarding the Indian market. So what has happened so far? There have been around 10 presentations, so far there have been around 18,000 direct one-on-one meetings with companies. Within these three days, I have seen only the big people coming in the lower CO track, two presentations with them, and 10 people.
One thing I understood from that is that like your digital companies like Japato, which came today, first of all Japato looks to be the most outstanding story of the conference. So far, from what I have seen, It seems that the speed of quick commerce and the pace at which they are trying to build the company looks to be an outstanding story.
Secondly, there was a presentation on trends as well. That is looking to be very good and a very big Indian brand could emerge from there, so that looks to be also very good. Apart from the many technological changes that are coming in automotive as well, there was a presentation by Bosch on that. So it is quite interesting.
The mood is very optimistic. And when I am meeting FI people, everyone has the same concern. They love India, but they also look to be kind of looking a little stressed. The FI is a little high. It pulls their hand. Otherwise, they have money and they intend to buy, but they are looking at the entry point because the market has become so fast.
Ramdev ji, no FI felt missed out. You know, we really ran away, which was not largely expected. In view of the global perspective, they are feeling left. Now they are either giving the excuse of valuation, I mean all the managers that I am meeting are telling the same thing that brother, we have a strong intention to buy seriously in India, but the problem is the big issue, now even the children who are investors do not have their own money, the trustee manager of the global fund, so there is a lot of location, but their fear is that they bought because they have a cost of entry, they bought a stock and actually after buying, if the market corrects due to some reason, then they will get trapped, this is their fear and I think no one, right now, whether local or global, everyone is very worried about valuation and the market is going up even on this what call or concern, it is a strange environment where there is concern about the investment, but the market rates are going up, okay, ok, Ram Sir, good afternoon, there was a trend in your conference today, what is your personal view, hand on heart, you gave such a wonderful presentation You made a call as a house from 1600 to one way carry for the investors.
Now after listening to them and the management, what is your view? Is it attractive even at this price? Look Anuj, growth is going on in this, but what is it? You need to sit with the analyst who gave this call and understand what are the plans, how many strokes are they opening, what type of business is they building, according to that, what should be the fair value, not today, but in two- three years, four years out, clearly the price becomes very demanding, a market cap of Rs 2 lakh crore is not small, so if you buy from here, it means there is a lot of growth, a lot of goodness in the price of the company, but there is a lot of momentum.
Right now, the digital companies, these are not digital companies, in fact, these are physical companies, but still there is a lot of momentum. So now they say that brother, what does the fair price mean? It is very tough, but it is an expense. I can tell you this. Well, Ram Sir, ADFC Bank also gave your presentation.
In the conference, and because there must have been a lot of FIIs in your conference, what is the view of large cap banks regarding private banks at this time because there is a lot of underperformance here, Anuj, I see that look, one is that you have the credit opportunity which will be the economic extension, which is the funding of the economy, for which the banking system is useful, that opportunity is there, that opportunity is permanent in India or any country, that is, if we grow from 78, if normal GDP grows from 11-12, then the sustainable banking opportunity will keep increasing at 12-15, so there is no doubt in that and there is no limit in it that there will be any limit on the size, something like that, and there is a lot of consolidation in the market share, so now the issue is that brother, the franchisor of ADFC, due to the merger, they will have to mobilize the deposits, due to which those teams will also have to be brought along, so That unsettling period, the adjustment period, one year has passed, it is possible that too much of the pace has gone down.
Right now, if you look at the credit quality, it came to our presentation in history, I mean, I think for the first time in the last 15 years, your gross NPA for the entire commercial bank is just about 2.5 percent and net NPA is about 6 percent. You should understand that the entire banking system is absolutely clean.
Right now, in fact, it is further improving. So, this is a great time for some top quality banking stocks. It seems to me that if the market has underperformed so much, then it will be difficult to say whether it will move from here, but I think that now, once again, seriously look at banking stocks which have seen good growth, whose management is good, who are franchisors, and from here on, there will be growth of 12, 15, 17 percent.
So, from ADC Bank, we understood that it is the franchisor in these four-six months. The adjustment will remain and after that we will go back to increasing the market share, winning the market shares. Okay, one thing that when I interviewed you last time, I came to your office and you had said that at present a retail revolution is going on and it is clearly visible on the screen.
When will the FIs revolution come back? So when will it come to the Indian market? Hey, these two have come together, Anuj. So, I want to tell you to all of us, I don't know what will happen and that will happen sooner or later because see, your global weightage of India is increasing, like in MSCI Emerging Market, India 's weightage has become 20% in the last month, so it will keep increasing because this market is increasing compared to other markets, so clearly your weightage will keep increasing and due to that the passive flow will also increase and for how long will these FIs sit out.
So now in this, I feel that one thing is that the earnings composition in this quadrant is a little slow, if there is a little pick up in the future, like the rate The cycle will come or the effect of monsoon will come or there will be some improvement in the monetary policy, due to that if suppose the earnings profile becomes good, next year i.e.
in 2425 if the earnings come to 1517, then after that even if I cannot sit outside, they will come, absolutely, Ramdev ji, I will end it on this note, by the way, I wanted to talk to you a lot but I think there was a little problem with the timing, so because of this, but next time I will discuss with you in detail and thank you so much for joining the conference with us today and all the best to you for the rest of the conference, thank you.
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