저자: Kevin · 외국인
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버핏·멍거 주총 발언을 정리하며 연준 완화와 의회 재정이 인플레를 키웠다고 진단. 중국주식 저가 매수 기회 언급, 액티비전 인수 차익거래 및 버크셔 지분 확대 소개. 비트코인은 생산성 자산이 아니라 비관적, 시장 타이밍은 불가능하다는 버핏 입장 전달. 테슬라 매수 유지 의사 표명. 버크셔 1965~2021 연복리 20.1%(S&P 10.5%) 강조.
다듬은 글
puppet blames the massive stimulus during the pandemic as a key reason that we are seeing inflation and now and i think this is absolutely obvious he says look when you print loads of money money is going to be worth less than separate from worthless but worth less okay that being said uh buffett had a great things to say about jay powell he said in his book jay powell is a hero i don't think a lot of people in the stock market right now would agree that jay powell is a hero but to some degree it's important to remember that j-pal kind of stopped a lot of the liquidity printing that was happening uh in in uh you know probably around the summer of 2020 but it's it's congress that just kept going and more and more stimulus uh so the the monetary side of a stimulus like for example the main street lending program or some of the other bailout programs that they were really under used by the fed uh the fed was actually surprised about it they're like oh wow apparently even using these programs it was it was more like i think they only bought like 80 billion in bonds or something like that corporate bonds or you know if that it was just sort of like the sentiment that oh yeah the fed's gonna come bail us out but it was really congress that's like anyway munger also talked about risks he's willing to take on investing in chinese stocks and i thought this was interesting because personally i'm like i ain't not going near the chinese stocks because chinese consumers like hell no we save money we not spend he says uh the reason that i invested in china is i get so much better companies at much lower prices and i'm willing to take a little bit more risk to get into better companies with lower prices other people might reach the opposite conclusion and everybody is worried about china now uh or more worried about china now than they were worried about four year 40 sorry more than 50 years ago okay they're more worried today than they were 50 years ago and see that's really interesting because uh really what what what he's saying is hey like yeah we realize there are a lot of risks investing in china but you know it's creating this wonderful you know by the dip opportunity essentially in chinese markets now i personally don't like the idea of buying adrs because you have the de-listing risk from the sec but hey if you had a way to get direct access to chinese stocks it's not a terrible argument that you know sure short term maybe they're china's in recession we're getting misleading data right but maybe it's an opportunity to buy the dip so uh very very interesting uh buffett says that he looks at berkshire as a painting and it's ultimate uh and it's really an unlimited painting in size that he's got this ever expanding canvas kind of like the uh universe that he gets to paint wherever he wants i that was kind of interesting uh and uh also somewhat inspiring anyway buffett said berkshire has been increasing at stake in activision uh this is a uh uh merger with arbitrage bet that uh microsoft remember microsoft is buying activision blizzard some folks rumor that the reason microsoft is buying activision is in part to get the ceo out of activision and try to like clean house a little bit i think that happens a lot at companies like microsoft doesn't necessarily really want activision but it's like okay well we can like basically buy a wedge deal because it's mismanaged get rid of the management and then profit kind of in my opinion like what you're seeing with twitter uh tbd anyway uh so berkshire in uh q4 purchased one billion dollars of activision they suggest they had no prior knowledge of microsoft plans to buy the company and that may be true but uh you know when you read between the lines there there could be prior knowledge that somebody was gonna buy activision no prior knowledge it was gonna be microsoft but i knew somebody was gonna well if it was anybody but warren buffett people would be all up in that yin yang trying to figure out about insider training anyway in uh in january microsoft obviously announced their intentions to my uh activision for 95 bucks a share it actually closed for 9 75 and 60 cents on friday so who knows but then again the market price is in the risk that these deals won't actually happen right that's the same reason why twitter is selling for less than 54.20 buffett says they own about nine and a half percent of activision uh let's see what else he has uh going back a little bit to inflation he mentioned that inflation swindles the bond investor who keeps their cash uh and the person uh who keeps their cash under a mattress and the poor folks it pretty much swindles everyone that inflation is really really bad and we've kind of seen that dialogue change with uh jerome powell as well you know initially it was inflation's transitory then it's like well it's still kind of transitory but it's less transitory it's just lasting longer and now it's like oh gosh we gotta deal with inflation uh charlie monger had a nice little uh slam on robin hood he called it an example of a good idea that has gone grossly overdone munger said that hidden kickbacks of that business model are quite frankly quote disgusting and he says that uh robin hood is quote unraveling and that bot is getting justice i mean this is like such a horrible slam on on poor vlad uh which vlad's kind of gone dark you know i'm like hey yo vlad when we gonna do another interview i think the world wants to hear from you now a lot of people when i say that they're like oh kevin why would you interview him i don't know i kind of like interviewing controversial people because i think it's very interesting i just like i wonder what it must be like being vlad right now uh anyway so uh at the beginning of the berkshire meeting uh there was a talk uh there was talk about that if something is not a productive asset it doesn't produce anything uh then uh then buffett won't buy it and this is when he really took the opportunity to slam cryptocurrencies uh he talked about whether it goes up or down in the next year or five years or ten years he has no idea but one thing he knows for sure is that it doesn't produce anything and uh and he wouldn't even buy all the bitcoin in the world if it was 25 uh okay so uh and let's see here he also goes on to say i don't think we've ever made a decision where either one of us uh has either said or been thinking we should buy or sell based on what the market is going to do or for that matter and what the economy is going to do we don't know and this was also really inspiring because it's like there's there's so much to look at and it's just like oh my gosh it's like it puts you in a like a dizzy and so uh it's this is actually one of the reasons i've gone so heavy on just buying tesla because i'm like boy oh boy it is this i read a report the other day that uh uh and i've got a few other companies as well but i read a report the other day that this has been the hardest market to time in 50 years and so like even if you time some parts right like boy oh boy like what's around the next corner is just insane uh so anyway uh so for me i'm just like all right well where's where's the next opportunity i guess to buy my three faves you know so uh anyway uh charlie monger had some uh words uh about uh the uh you know these calls about removing buffett as chairperson berkshire because buffett's old blah blah blah and he said it's like odysseus would come back from winning the battle of troy uh and so forth and some guy would say i don't like the way you were holding your spear when you won the battle like in other words talking about like how ridiculous it is you know buffett's helping win the game and people calling for his removal are just obscene uh buffett uh talked about his uh struggle of finding good businesses to invest in and uh and uh he's he's uh you know they're absolutely searching for deals but they have to be sizable deals he says uh we'll pay any price climb any hills to find businesses but we actually prefer when they fall into our lap kind of uh i kind of think that's great it reiterates this idea of like having cash on the side of being ready being prepared to be able to make acquisitions rather than being all in and being on margin which is just a complete disaster uh buffet uh you know kind of goes back to his confidence on the fed a little bit talked about short-term volatility that's fueled by gambling mentality uh this is something that they do their best to absolutely avoid and uh they also bought the dip quite a bit in uh in in q1 uh big stake in ocean dental petroleum uh chevron uh they increased their stakes and and they bought multiple other stocks uh and uh really they're buying these as opposed to buying treasuries which makes sense because i think treasuries are just getting reamed so uh anyway uh today uh he talked about the fact that berkshire will likely always be cash rich because he thinks that they are actually better than the banks in extending credit lines to companies in need and really what you do in that case is you're like sure we'll give you a credit line in return for some equity some cheap equity uh and uh and then of course from the start of 1965 to the end of 2021 uh uh well end of 2021 worth noting i mean things have well all the berkshire has been holding up quite well it's actually been doing very well so anyway but anyway from 65 to the end of 2021 the per share market value of berkshire hathaway had an annual compounded return of 20.1 uh that's nearly double the s p's return of 10.5 including dividends really incredible so this gives you a little bit of an update on uh what went down with warren buffett and berkshire hathaway this weekend
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