저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 찰리 멍거가 2021년 4분기 마진(차입)으로 알리바바와 정체불명 종목을 매수했으며, 본인은 레버리지 투자를 일반 투자자에게 권하지 않는다고 말함. 멍거 매매 내역: 2021년 4분기 마켓어블 증권 매수 약 8,700만 달러 중 알리바바 약 300,000주(3,000~4,000만 달러 추정)를 매수했고, 나머지 약 5,000~6,000만 달러는 정체불명 종목. 매도 및 차입: 5,000만 달러 상당 종목을 매도(원가 330만 달러, 이익 4,700만 달러, 15배 이상 수익)하고, 약 3,700만 달러를 마진으로 차입. 매도 종목은 BYD로 추정되나 공식 공개되지 않음. 레버리지 평가: 차입금 약 6,900만 달러는 포트폴리오 약 3억 9,500만 달러의 약 17% 수준. 멍거의 순자산은 수십억 달러라 리스크는 제한적이라는 평가. 정체불명 종목 추론: 마진 사용으로 보아 큰 할인 상태(청산가치 이하 또는 낮은 FCF 배수)일 것이라는 발표자의 추측이며, 확인된 사실은 아님. 알리바바 전망: 이미 크게 하락한 상태라 레버리지가 상대적으로 합리적일 수 있다는 의견. 개인투자자에게 레버리지는 위험하다고 강조. 결론적으로 발표자는 멍거의 확신 수준이 높다고 판단하며, 정체불명 종목에 대한 추가 논의는 디스코드 커뮤니티에서 진행하겠다고 안내.
다듬은 글
did charlie munger at the daily journal just lever up borrow money to buy alibaba and a mystery security it sure looks like it we're going to talk about that and more own stock in alibaba 9988 on the hong kong exchange i bought that via interactive brokers and so look i've done a few videos on alibaba already i you know i did a deep dive in terms of the valuation why i like the setup why i own it i covered how when charlie munger bought for the daily journal then doubled it then doubled it again and so i i've covered it in length and how in the fourth quarter 2021 they doubled it i believe the second time they doubled it and we just found out that charlie munger was actually levering up or borrowing money during the fourth quarter 2021 to buy more alibaba and this mystery security and look let me let me jump to the chase no one knows exactly what this mystery security is except for let's say insiders at daily journal but we should understand the dynamics here of this purchase and sale so he bought 87 million dollars worth of stock during the fourth quarter 2021.
we know that alibaba was approximately 30 to 40 million of that purchase based on fourth quarter 2021 prices and around 300 000 shares so they they do disclose 300 000 shares we do know that they disclosed that i think it was in december that they made the purchases so we know okay we can ballpark what the cost was so that leaves a mystery purchase of 50 to 60 million because you see during that during the fourth quarter 2021 calendar year their purchases of marketable securities was 87 million alibaba was maybe 30 to 40 million that does leave about 50 to 60 million for this mystery purchase this is fascinating to me for a couple reasons one is as they disclosed in the footnote he sold 50 million of stock with a cost basis of 3.3 million and recognized a 47 million dollar gain that is incredible he really is one of the greatest of all time no question the goat made 15 times plus his money in just a few years presumably on this investment he borrowed this is the second point that's really interesting he borrowed 37 over 37 million dollars so using margin against the portfolio to make these two purchases so in effect levering up to buy alibaba and this mystery security so selling stock and borrowing to buy alibaba and this mystery security and this raises even more questions how levered are they and has charlie munger gone mad my answer is no i i don't think so i think charlie is still wicked smart um and i think looking at you know this leverage it's it isn't prudent for most investors but the amount of debt he's using is around 17 of their current portfolio alibaba is already down fairly significantly and so this is arguably reasonable for him because one he's a goat he knows what he's doing this is not recommended for most investors i don't make recommendations on this channel but for most folks this is how you blow up is making a lever bet on something that goes against you and not having the financial reserves to be like oh snap margin call charlie munger this is this is sort of like a play account for him like you need to understand that this is 400 million dollars his net worth is several billion dollars so if he was like oh there's a margin call i'll personally help out daily journal or do something like that you know that could happen so you need to understand that dynamic and at the end of the day 17 of the portfolio being levered around 69 million total in margin debt you know versus this 395 million portfolio value does mean it's not crazy you know over levered the other big question is how did they sell what did they sell for a 15x plus gain so that's 50 million dollars in proceeds the answer is actually a little puzzling here because the fourth quarter 2021 investment update reflected only adding to alibaba the 300 000 shares that i already called out and not selling anything else in the portfolio so because you know regulations say hey you don't have to disclose foreign stocks this does imply that this 50 million dollar sale was a foreign stock sale so this does create a little bit of mystery what did charlie munger sell and what did he buy first a with lso call intereste in checking out that community more about the community in just a second so while it hasn't been formally disclosed i think you can make an educated guess here on what he sold i suspect the security that he trimmed or sold was byd a pioneer of electric vehicles and batteries in china the reason why i think it's an educated guess is charlie munger has talked about owning them so he's pretty much disclosed that several times throughout the years at daily journal meetings so i'm i think it's a reasonable guesstimate to say yeah and it's foreign security that this is probably what he was selling to finance the purchase especially given the fact that byd has rallied several hundred percent in just the last two years and was making new highs in december when he made the sale arguably to buy alibaba and this mystery security so he probably looked all-time high said you know what maybe now's the time to take some chips off the table and buy things that he thought were more of a discount and this sort of mystery security so what's the mystery security that he bought while only insiders know there's one thing we do know he used margin to buy it so what what does that imply trying to use sort of a logical framework and look i'm not going to you know take a i don't want to speculate on this channel i like to try to keep it to the hard facts but we can sort of learn based on his actions we can sort of make an educated guess on like what type of security he bought and so based on using money borrowing money to make this purchase i would argue he needs to have an above average margin of safety he's looking at something i this is this is me sort of you know conjecturing here that he's looking at something that has a huge discount to value so maybe it's a company that trades well below let's say liquidation value so maybe that's one possibility another possibility is the company just trading in a really low multiple to free cash flow like trading at like five times free cash flow and he knows it's going to grow and something like that and so i'm sort of spitballing here because the reality is no one knows except the insiders and so i what i am going to do though is i'm going to create a separate channel in the unrivaledinvesting.com uh the exclusive discord where we can sort of brainstorm there and spitball ideas in terms of what it can be because i don't want to do you know crazy speculation on this channel i want to keep it to you know the what are the facts here and i think the facts are using margin means this is probably something that he has above average conviction given the fact that it's a mystery security in alibaba it probably does mean that he has more conviction on alibaba and he's looking at something that's sold off significantly and trades at a huge discount to either liquidation value or some sort of fair value just based on that type of conviction that he's willing to do that right now that's that's at least my read on it i'd love to absolutely hear your thoughts if you want to engage in that discussion in terms of spitballing different ideas part of the community the unrivaled nation spitballing with ideas on what that mystery security is check out unrivalinvesting.com i'm about to open up that channel in discord to talk about it if
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