저자: Daniel · 외국인
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결론: 빌 애크먼의 연준 자이언트 금리인상 주장과 마진론(신용잔고) 급증을 근거로 단기 시장 급락 위험에 경계가 필요하다는 진행자의 우려. 빌 애크먼 발언: 연준이 3월 0.25%p 대신 0.5%p 깜짝 인상으로 인플레이션 대응 신뢰를 보여야 한다고 주장. 2022년 3~4회 인상이 예상되는 상황. 애크먼 과거 행적: 2020년 3월 CNBC 출연 후 시장이 약 4% 하락, 그 당시 힐튼 등 호텔주 폭락 경고와 함께 매수 행보를 보였음. 이 때문에 월가에서 시장 조작 의혹이 제기됨. 진행자의 해석: 애크먼이 시장 하락에 베팅(공매도·풋옵션) 또는 금리 파생상품 포지션을 취했을 가능성을 추측하나 확인된 사실은 아님. 마진론 우려: 신용잔고가 2019년 약 4000~5000억 달러에서 약 9000억 달러로 급증, 과거 고점(닷컴, 금융위기) 부근에서 나타난 패턴과 유사하다고 지적. 전년 대비 증가율은 둔화되었으나 여전히 증가 중. 마진 비율 반론: 윌셔5000 대비 비율은 약 2%로 과거 고점보다 낮지만, 1990년대 중반 대비로는 약 50% 높다고 설명. 심리·밸류에이션: 적자 기업들이 높은 주가매출비율로 거래되고 있어 심리가 바뀌면 밸류에이션 급락 가능성이 크다고 경고. 시나리오: 금리 인상 충격 → 마진 부담 증가 → 마진콜과 반대매매 → 급락 가능. 진행자의 결론적 태도: 거시 지표 관찰을 강조하며 개별 종목 중 멀티배거 발굴은 계속하겠다고 함. 특정 종목 매수·매도 추천 발언은 없음.
다듬은 글
bill ackman wants the federal reserve to shock and awe the stock market what that potentially means and what can you even consider doing about it i'll talk about that as well as the chart that really has me concerned in this video if a no hype mission focus and so let's let's dive right into the latest posts from billionaire and multi-billion dollar hedge fund manager bill ackman were he recently called out how the federal reserve should get ahead of inflation by raising rates faster than many expect instead of raising by just a quarter of a percent in march as is widely expected you know it broadly expected to raise about three or four times in 2022 the federal reserve should get ahead of it they're they're lacking the credibility to fight inflation and they're continuing to lose it given the narrative over the last few months about transitory and constantly behind the ball let's get in front of it for once let's actually show they can do it and one way to do it is to raise instead of by 25 basis points or a quarter percent in march they should jump this is what he's suggesting they should jump to a half a percent surprise move in his words to shock and awe the market which would demonstrate its resolve the federal reserve's resolve to fight inflation okay so what do i think this means i think it's worthwhile to have some context on bill ackman where i think he's he's one to consider his his voice the the ability to speak to tens of thousands if not millions of investors and potentially even influence the market he would argue hey i don't know what you're talking about but the reality is in march 2020 when you know it was becoming increasingly aware that the pandemic would cause real trouble for the economy and a lot of stocks you know he came on you know he was on cnbc and he nearly sounded like he was crying and the stock market fell like four percent that day now he later you know got on said oh you know the idea that my appearance pushed the market down an additional four percent that day is absurd which you know a little bit of a a little bit maybe it's just a little bit posturing but you know it is worth calling out that at that time ackman warned that hotel operator hilton worldwide was going to zero along with every other hotel company in the world and he also talked about how he was also aggressively buying that stock hilton as well and he'd been buying all the way down so i mean you know his view was like wait a second this is this is just you know people are misreading it they should have been taking this as an extremely bullish angle but generally when someone says oh i'm buying something that i think is going to zero that's that's not quite the case so everyone views this as him sort of manipulating that's that's the way it's often perceived on wall street whether or not you want to take bills you know bill ackman's perspective that's that's up to you but it's easy to see you know if you come on cnbc and it just sounds like you know you're you're so emotional that the economy you know it's going to bring down every company in the world and the economy you know this is hell is coming is what he said you know like if you're gonna be saying things like that then um while you even while you're buying i think it has a lot of people sort of uh it doesn't doesn't sit well with many investors i think even one you know former uh fund manager mike novogratz he was talking about how you know they should get i think that same day he was like they should get bill ackman off cnbc before people start jumping off of bridges or buildings and so what what do i think this all means so looking at bill ackman's post from from this angle recognizing that you know he could be self-serving you know and using his his voice to to get that angle i suspect he's considering a few different traits here so i not necessarily that he's done it you know let's say last year but maybe he's actively doing it now or something that he's considering doing such as shorting the market or buying puts you know if you're saying shocking on the market that means you're expecting the market to go down significantly i would i would suspect um you know this this idea of oh man the federal reserve is moving faster than i expect or he's buying interest rate derivatives you know some talk about swaps that benefit from interest rate hikes faster than the market expect so effectively you know these are really the the second thing that i mentioned you know shorting the market that's fairly straightforward or buying puts that's fairly straightforward and certainly he's he's accustomed to doing it and he had done it you know and and his puts had made money when he did that that march uh 2020 call but um you know these these types of bets this is more like you know pretty much just straight gambling where you're saying hey i think the federal reserve will raise by this amount before this date and it's sort of a driven by a payoff type structure so it's possible he's considering either this is really just conjecture on my part just given his past behavior of you know saying hey here's here's the situation and meanwhile he's actively making a bet so despite this posturing i'd argue this really isn't the chart that got my attention this past week um and what really got my attention is this chart you know this this isn't what in my mind in the media term can cause the market to fall fast and furiously what really has my attention is this one which you know is from yardini.com so you can check that out and what's really alarming in my opinion is the explosion in margin debt and you can see how there's been a nearly half trillion dollar increase you know it looks like in 2019 to today from around you know it looks like around 400 500 billion to around 900 so this huge it just went parabolic in terms of the amount of margin debt that investors were willing to consider with the market so that has just been an explosion in debt and in all honesty let's let's take it let's take a little history lesson here i mean you see this explosion this year-over-year change billions of dollars and you see this these types of explosions happen near the peaks in the market i mean you saw the exact same thing happen you know before the market turned uh you saw it again before the great financial crisis you sought again with the dot-com bubble once again getting bigger and bigger each time the size of it and so this is this is cause for great concern now to keep in mind this is a yearly change so this means it's still getting bigger it's just not growing at the same rate so previously it was growing really fast nearly you know 350 billion year over year now it's only a 200 billion year over year so it's still still enough to funnel the bubble but once you start having that sort of change in psychology where people aren't willing just to go crazy and it just slowly starts you know going down then it really it really gets concerned as could it start dropping precipitously to start going into that negative territory and that's that's really when the market starts to revolt because that's when you start having this quick contraction where you start having liquidation margin calls and that's the fast and furious that really gets the market going so the shocking of the federal rate uh policy change you know that that could start driving the behavior that has this it is alarming to see okay there's a good chance sentiment has peaked and that you know now it's just about i wonder how long it's going to take and that's that's what i see when i look at charts like this these types of things do suggest okay these these charts do show sentiment and you could say well wait a second daniel you know what about these periods you know from from 2012 and 2016 and how about 2018 2019 you know it's not like the market collapsed then but you didn't have as much of a dramatic run-up and i'd argue during this time you had federal reserve support for the most part largely with quantitative easing very friendly federal reserve that's the exact opposite of where we are now in terms of the federal reserve saying look we got a titan and you have investors pushing for a shock and awe campaign to combat inflation now some might argue that it's not that big of a deal you know say daniel you're actually missing a big point which is that once again the chart from yourdini.com where you should compare the amount of debt to let's say the securities that they can offset and here it is you'd go wait a second as a percentage of the wilshire 5000 it's only like two percent you know as a percentage of the wilshire 5000 the amount of margin debt outstanding and so i have a couple of thoughts here one is that if you go back to let's say the mid 90s what you're really talking about is that it's 50 percent higher as a percentage basis and so there's still dramatic downside in terms of you know if sentiment changes investors say oh my goodness i don't want to have this much debt relative to the securities outstanding that that's one aspect and the other aspect is yes i agree on an absolute you know percentage on looking at this on a percentage basis you could say well it's not it's not the highs that it was um as a percentage you know that it was back in 2007 or you know back in 2000 but i think it's really a gauge of human behavior and its changes show that like oh this is the change this shows you oh this is you know investors are really gung-ho and they're really you know let's let's lever up as fast we can as securities but now it's starting oh no you know okay okay i'll borrow a little maybe not maybe not oh okay now i gotta sell a lot and that's that's the concern is that you know the the recent changes is really a gauge of the change in sentiment and sentiment can play a really big role in the stock market not only do you have fundamentals drive the market but sentiment plays a huge role especially because there are so many companies today so many companies today that trade at these lofty multiples price to sales multiples and they're unprofitable and if you have a change in sentiment where folks say hey i need to get a discount because of that and right now for the most part i see companies getting full credit despite operating nowhere near their future potential margins and companies are given full credit if sentiment changes you could see a huge you know downdraft in terms of valuation and that's that's sort of how all this feeds on it maybe it starts with that you know shock and awe that that bill ackman talks about oh okay then it becomes a little more costly to have that margin debt because rates go up a little bit okay now margin debt really starts changing maybe it really starts selling off the margin debt um you know because of your concerns there so this is these are the charts that sort of get my interest these are the data points that get my interest from the macro perspective you know meanwhile i'll continue to focus on trying to find those potential multi-baggers by going to if you're interested if you enjoyed this video please make a point of hitting that thumbs up and hit i'd love to hear your feedback by the way if you have a different take on either margin debt or bill ackman if you think oh no bill ackman's not positioning his portfolio or what you think bill ackman potentially is doing with his portfolio if you think there's a different angle that he's doing other than potentially shorting or buying you know effectively derivatives on interest rates moving higher i'd love to hear it thanks so much for tuning in
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