저자: Daniel · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 찰리 멍거의 알리바바 추가 매수는 흥미롭지만 지분 규모상 그의 재산에는 사소하며, 발표자 본인은 알리바바를 상위 10위 밖으로 보고 저평가 소형주를 더 선호한다. 멍거 포지션: 데일리저널이 알리바바 주식을 30만2천주에서 60만2천주로 약 두 배 늘렸고, 포지션 규모는 약 7,100만 달러다. 2분기 약 16만5천주 대비로도 크게 늘었다. 데일리저널 내 상위 투자는 뱅크오브아메리카, 웰스파고, 알리바바 순이다. 밸류에이션: 핵심 상거래 사업의 잉여현금흐름만으로 PER 12배 미만이며, 클라우드·앤트파이낸셜·미디어 등 추가 자산을 제외해도 저평가라고 주장한다. 알리바바 클라우드는 향후 5년간 현재 시가총액 이상의 가치가 될 수 있다고 본다. 성장 전망: 경영진이 효과적으로 움직인다는 전제에서 향후 5년간 200% 이상 성장 잠재력이 있다는 추정을 제시한다. 다만 중국 규제 등 과제는 인정한다. 투자 철학: 멍거 인용을 들어 결정적 순간에 과감히 베팅하고, 50~수백% 성장 가능한 기업을 지속 탐색하며, 현금을 비축해 기회에 대응하라고 강조한다. 과거 견해와 이해관계: 과거 알리바바를 추천했으나 보유 주식이 약 40% 하락했다. 주가가 더 낮아져도 자사주 매입 중이라 괜찮다고 했다. 알리바바는 자신의 상위 10종목에 들지 않으며, 구독자 전용으로 중국 노출의 저평가 멀티배거를 따로 제시했다고 언급한다. 리스크: 기업 실적 변화는 분기 보고서 단위로 천천히 나타나며, 발표자는 자신의 판단이 틀릴 수 있음을 인정한다.
다듬은 글
Charlie Munger just did it again, doubling his stake in Alibaba shares. If you're new to the channel, my name is Daniel, and you're watching Unrivaled Investing—a hype-free channel dedicated to finding exceptional companies and unbeatable investments. Please note that , I owned Alibaba shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
So, as you can see from the reporting just submitted, this is a doubling compared to the third quarter of 2021 . They just announced or filed their fourth quarter report. Charlie Munger runs the Daily Journal, where the number of Alibaba shares increased from 302,000 to 602,000. That is, almost doubling.
This is a $ 71 million position . This is a significant increase from the second quarter, when there were about 165,000 shares. Now it's closer to 602,000. So you can see how much this position has increased. I would say there is more to it, and as you look at this, understand one thing: don't get too excited about it, my friends.
I know, and I'm personally pleased to see them double down again . But do n't lose your head too much over this. He runs the Daily Journal. This is a very small position relative to his equity. His personal fortune is several billion dollars. So having a $ 71 million position in Alibaba is , I would say, almost insignificant compared to the amount he personally invested.
And if something bad were to happen to the Daily Journal , I would say he would be able to potentially save them if there was a problem. So in that sense, the stakes are a bit different. Yes, it's great to see $70 million —that's a lot more than most people have. But on the scale we're talking about, it does n't really change anything for him.
For the Daily Journal, this is a relatively large investment. This is one of their top investments right now, one of the top three, as seen in the fourth quarter results. The largest is Bank of America, next is Wells Fargo, and then Alibaba. And, to be honest , this move isn't that surprising, given Charlie Munger's past.
But, you know, come on, let's try to understand the basics. You know, I've talked about this several times. Rough estimates suggest over 200% potential growth over the next five years if management acts effectively. Um , they have their challenges, don't get me wrong. I've already mentioned this in a series of my videos.
But, for example, just based on fundamentals, the company is trading at less than 12 times earnings on significant free cash flow generated by just their core commercial business, their core e-commerce business. This excludes billions in value of other assets, such as. One of these assets is Alibaba Cloud, which I also made a video about; it alone could be worth as much or more than its current market cap over the next five years, as the Chinese cloud market is expected to grow significantly, and they are one of the leaders.
And that, you know, again, ignores all these other assets that they have, like Ant Financial and their media and entertainment assets. And , you know, it's classic Charlie Munger, who might say something like, "You're looking for an undervalued bet, that's what investing is." And I would say that's exactly what we're seeing here, when you say, "Wait , this one small segment is not being valued by the market at all." He has another quote that I really like and think about often: our experience confirms the long-held belief that being willing to act decisively on a few occasions throughout your life, doing something simple and logical, often dramatically improves your financial outcomes over your lifetime.
A few great opportunities, clearly recognized as such, usually come to someone who is constantly searching and waiting with an inquisitive mind that loves analysis involving many variables. And then all that is needed is a willingness to make a big bet when the odds are extremely favorable, using resources accumulated through prudence and patience in the past.
This quote means a lot to me, and I've been reflecting on it for several years now. You know, I think I first heard it at a Wesco meeting when I was a teenager and saw Charlie Munger with my own eyes. And the main message here is: look, constantly look for ideas, constantly look for companies that , in your opinion, can grow by more than 50 percent.
Look for something that can grow by several hundred percent. Try to build up your cash reserves so that when opportunities arise, you can act on a large scale. And you realize that you will never, ever be 100% sure that something will work. You are looking for the same undervalued rate. And when you see something like this, that's when you make a big bet, realizing that opportunities like this do n't come along every day.
And it's worth it, but look, everyone has to have their own path, you know, he has a very, very focused approach, and it's served him well for a long time. Some might think I have a vested interest here, trying to boost Alibaba's stock, you know, sometimes comments like that come up here. No, it's a no- hype, mission-focused channel, and a lot of people love Alibaba and Charlie Munger, so I work for the audience, and that's partly why I make these videos.
Also, if Alibaba stock remained low or fell even lower, I would be perfectly happy since they are buying back shares. The reality is also that Alibaba is not even in my top 10 as I believe there are more attractive options. For example, a few months ago I mentioned a potential multi-bagger with similar exposure to China that was trading at a huge discount to liquidation value.
So, this is available to my subscribers, and if you're interested, go to unrivaledinvesting.com, where we're trying to build a community of investors who are eager to learn and find exceptional companies, constantly turning over every stone. But, actually, that's all. Once again, click "join the journey" on unrivaledinvesting.com .
So, it's interesting to watch Charlie Munger double down on his investment in Alibaba stock again. To be honest, the original data has n't really changed. It's not like they change, you know, that significantly overnight. Infrequently. Usually it happens very slowly, you just look at quarterly reports.
And, you know, I've been talking about this, and so far I've been wrong. My Alibaba shares fell about 40%. You know, seeing this, I think, "Okay, maybe I should triple-check my calculations and think, maybe this should be a bigger part of my personal journey." Although, you know, I love my other bigger assets.
So I like it because it provokes a certain thought process, like, "Wait a second, am I underinvesting in this?" Should I buy more? If you have any thoughts on Alibaba stock, I would definitely like to hear them. Feel free to write in the comments, and thanks for watching. If you enjoyed this video, please like it and subscribe to the channel. Thank you very much.
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