저자: Daniel · 외국인
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팔란티어가 최근 성장 둔화(매출 +36% YoY, 2Q 49%에서 감속), 자사주 보상 제외 시 적자, 고밸류에이션(매출 약 30배), 임원 대량 매도 등으로 하락 압력을 받고 있다. 윌리엄블레어의 대형 정부계약 부재 우려 및 약 35% 하락 전망을 소개. 발표자는 장기 성장 스토리는 긍정적이나 현재 밸류에이션은 매력적이지 않으며, 주가가 저가대(10대 중반)로 내려오면 재검토하겠다는 입장.
다듬은 글
palantir like many growth stocks has been coming under pressure pltr is the ticker for palantir stock it's down something like 40 in the last few weeks and just earlier today the cell side came out with a negative outlook and said hey you know what the pain might might keep on going with potentially 30 40 downside from here in this video i'm going to talk about what's what's the possible risk that happens why does some sell side analysts think that there is that downside risk and what is my own personal take on palantir if this is your first time tuning in my name is daniel you're watching unrivaled investing a no hype mission focus channel trying to find you exceptional companies in unrivaled investments in full disclosure this is not financial advice and at the time of this video publication i did not own stock in palantir pl tr is the ticker so recognize this is not my first video on palantir i previously called out how when the stock was back in the mid-20s i might be interested in revisiting closer to a teens level a lot of folks thought i was i was being too conservative since then it's it's dropped uh to a teen's level this was because you know i i had this sort of conservative outlook because their share count was much much higher than most folks thought about 30 more than most folks expected you can you could check out why in that video on the overhang and it results in look 30 more expensive now with the stock and the teens i want to ask okay so what's going on and let's look at their most recent quarterly update on a high level things are going well while their total revenue grew 36 percent year-over-year this is actually a meaningful deceleration from the from the 49 growth in the second quarter 21.
this is part of the reason why the recent stock performance has been weak i mean that is quite a you know drop in in growth their commercial business however continued to gain traction which is needed i'd argue for this business to really compound in the years ahead if you really want this to be you know a company that's growing you know 100 over time you know to become a true compounder you're going to need to get that commercial element as well not just be a purely defense company i i would argue management has made some really interesting commercial bets on this angle where they've called out how they're using their foundry software platform they describe you know foundry effectively as a combination of the nervous and cardiovascular system for enterprises to help many day zero not day one day zero companies with huge ambitions day zero meaning effectively de minimis revenues but lots of growth potential lots of ambitions companies looking to build for example modern day iron man suits or flying taxis saying hey let's take our software platform help them integrate all this data process it analyze it so that way they can launch products faster and actually come to market faster so it's day zero meaning they really haven't found product market fit yet but maybe they can in the future with the help of their foundry software interestingly this is part of a portfolio of small bets that they've made worth 153 million dollars as of the third quarter 21 you know i i leave it to you in terms of making that call on whether or not it's a bad or a good idea to be making these types of bets you know some could argue it sort of muddies the water because now you're mixing an investment with a potential customer as well so is it really is it really organic demand that's driving you know the desire to use their software or is it because they're getting this investment from you in the first place and does this create the potential that you know you could be sort of overstating your revenues because you're giving them money and then they're spending that same money on the software that that that you effectively you you know the software that you provide so it does make it a a murkier picture i i leave it up to you whether or not you think it's a red flag i mean this follows several other inves interesting bets that they've made for example they've also bought 50 million dollars worth of 100 ounce gold bars you know look it's very clear that alex carp the founder and ceo has grand ambitions for palantir and this fits with his outlook of 30 annual revenue growth through 2025 not very many companies have said yeah we think we're effectively going to more than double in the years ahead penciling out 30 percent and minimum effective annual growth in the years ahead if you know any companies that have similarly stated something like that leave a comment below i definitely want to hear it while 30 annualized growth is an impressive vision management has also been selling hundreds of millions of dollars worth of stock at prices not that far above current levels so i'd say maybe you know temper that sort of optimism in terms of whether or not that 30 growth actually translates into much higher stock prices you know for example alex carp at the end of november sold 12 million dollars at effectively 21 dollars a share um so you know and you've seen that he's sold literally over 100 million 100 million dollars worth of stock in in just the last few months okay so you see this you sort of juxtapose it with their their grand ambitions and outlook but why is the stock drifting lower i'd argue a few different variables valuation is one slowing growth from as you as i already talked about you know comparing their third quarter growth versus their second quarter and broader macro concerns pressuring on profitable stocks i did a whole separate video on this you know called save yourself on the general pressure that unprofitable companies are likely facing especially now that the fed has effectively changed their posturing on liquidity you might disagree with me on this last point though you might say wait a second after all measurement has repeatedly called out how profitable they are on an adjusted basis you know saying look you know like we we have 30 adjusted operating margins 116 million in adjusted operating income this unfortunately is a hundred percent due to stock-based compensation which only in dreamland isn't a very real expense i mean in the third quarter 21 alone so in the third quarter alone their stock based compensation was 185 million dollars so that is the full reason why they're saying that they have positive adjusted margin i mean that's a real expense people expect to be getting paid in stock so why shouldn't you be treating it like an expense it in all honesty it's a data point that i'd argue goes against management's credibility when you start doing this and and they're not alone in fairness you know a lot of wall street does this i'd say the the the premium a investors premium a management doesn't do this type of thing where they you know they they consistently say oh yeah you know oh yeah we're immensely profitable if you back out the fact that over 100 of this change comes from the fact that stock-based compensation so i i definitely as you could tell i don't i don't like that aspect so today the stock fell on a negative outlook by an analyst at william blair calling out how they hadn't won calling out how palantir hadn't won any mega government contracts in the recent months when i say mega we're talking about hundreds of millions maybe even billion dollar size contracts and given their lofty valuation which is around 30 times sales this could result in further stock deceleration because in order for them to continue to post significant growth in the years ahead they're going to need to continue winning mega contracts because government is still such a large component of their business and so effectively the the concern here by william blair and you know by the folks at william blair is that hey you haven't announced a let's say 500 million dollar contract recently and you know what we're looking at here is saying there's the real risk that your growth let's say decelerates closer to 30 and if that happens is it really appropriate for this company to be valued at 30 times sales and so they think that volunteer stock can drop around 35 from current levels and you know personally i i think in the short term anything can happen and i certainly wouldn't be surprised by a 30 or even 50 percent stock you know stock drop from here which might seem you know unpalatable for you but i think it is worth reflecting that stock markets can do you know really wild things longer term they're tapping into several huge growth opportunities you know like modernizing you know the accessibility and analytics of data which is just immense this creates immense recurring revenue streams as they as palantir effectively becomes embedded within corporations and government agencies so you know i i definitely am bullish on the long-term thesis here you know i'm less less bullish on seeing sort of the you know the day zero initiatives and the things like the stock-based compensation you know metrics but you know given their value in terms of what they're bringing i i suspect they will be able to continue significant growth you know in the years ahead and it really is a question if you're a big bull on palantir is do you think they can execute on let's say 35 to 40 growth in the years ahead if you think they can do let's say closer to 40 growth in the years ahead and if you think they can get to real profit margins of let's say 35 to 40 percent that includes stock-based compensation so if you can get real profitability you know after that expense i'd argue the stock could have 100 plus upside over the next five years that's a lot of ifs you know 40 growth 40 profit margins after significant stock based compensation you know assuming let's say 35 times earnings multiple five years from now um so there's a lot of ifs there you know look of course stock prices can go way higher way lower it all depends on execution and sentiment so we'll see if they can deliver on this personally i'm not really sold on palantir at their current valuation despite the sell-off you know as i just called out another software company growing faster than palantir at trey and trading at less than half less than half the valuation for palantir so like that when i see that in the marketplace it definitely gets my spidey sense tingling because i'm looking at this i'm saying wait a second palantir trades at this you know around 30 times sales 30 times this year's sales i'm able to find other companies that are at less than half are growing faster in the most recent quarter and so that that type of bet seems way more asymmetric versus what i'm looking at with pallet here so overall with pound here you know i personally think you know if william blair's outlook comes to pass and the stock falls into a low teens maybe i'll be you know interested in revisiting and i'll do another video on it at that point you know but at this point i'm not really crazy about it you know if you're interested in you know following along with the potential multibaggers that i call out like that software company i just mentioned you know that trading at half the valuation palantir yet growing faster without arguing hundreds hundreds of percent upside versus you know palantirs that sort say more you know like a hundred percent more subdued growth potential um you know go to unrivaledinvesting.com click join the journey and that's where i call it out for my unrivaled investing journey subscribers first week of the month i call out my full portfolio as well we also have a dedicated community on discord where we're interacting i'm personally interacting on an almost daily basis you know we're all looking to learn and share things and so that's at unrivaledinvesting.com if you have a strong opinion on palantir or you feel like i'm missing an angle whether or not it's bullish or bearish i definitely want to hear it because look i'm very interested in finding these types of companies that can grow hundreds or even thousands of percent over time i like palantir's long-term growth story i just i'm not quite sure about the current valuation there's a lot of assumptions that sort of go into it and once again like as i've called out before i think a lot of people are sort of misreading what the current share count is in the implied valuation a lot of folks you know the calculation is just just wrong you know that their share counts like 30 higher than a lot of folks realize so anywho if this video's been helpful for you please make a point of hitting that thumbs up button and hitting that subscribe button thanks so much for tuning in
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