저자: Kevin · 외국인
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맥도날드·애플 등 펀더멘털과 주가 괴리가 크며 시장은 경기침체 대비 순환매(필수소비재·산업재 선호) 국면이다. 테슬라는 2022년 4분기 인도량 405,278대로 예상치(약 420,760대)를 약 3% 밑돌아 주가가 9~10% 하락했으나, 전분기 대비 18% 성장(연환산 72%)을 근거로 성장 스토리가 과소평가됐다고 주장한다. 중국 수요 부진과 머스크 지분 매도가 하방 압력이며, 테슬라 PER 약 22배, PEG 약 0.5로 GM보다 저평가라고 본다. 개인적으로 테슬라 보유 ETF 추가 매수 중임을 밝혔다.
다듬은 글
the McDonald's corporation saw Revenue fall eight percent in 2022 and guess what the stock did it fell 1.8 percent that's right after McDonald's Revenue was down eight percent in a year the stock was only down 1.8 percent basically flat in contrast Apple grew nine percent in the last quarter year over year after growing 35 in 2021 yet the stock fell 28 in 2022.
and of course in this video we're going to be talking about Tesla's disastrous 2022. so what's happening here with Wall Street why is it same that all of a sudden stock prices are completely detached from fundamentals in the opposite direction now don't get me wrong socks were relatively detached from their fundamentals in November of 2021 when everything was skyrocketing even Looney stocks were skyrocketing well that has since turned on its head but why does it seem like a company like McDonald's with shrinking revenues and low growth forecasts would be flat in 2022 when companies with real growth like apple are plummeting and of course Tesla even more so well what's happening is a trend towards a recessionary rotation this is actually very normal in institutional money management an Institutional money management hedge funds and professional money managers move in anticipation of a recession by going into consumer staple stocks or Industrials or energy related stocks this is exactly what happened in 2022.
if you look at the military industrial complex oil companies or Staples like McDonald's these stocks fared pretty dang well you can even look at companies like John Deere and see similar pretty decent performance relative to growth stocks like Tech that's because when you head into a recessionary Time the fundamentals aren't what matter what matters is the trend the trend is your friend it's a short-term bet that as you head towards a recession growth is what you sell and Staples are what you move into and that's why you actually see a substantial detach from fundamentals and stock prices and that's why when you look at a company like Tesla you're starting to see a company that's trading for well somewhere around 22 times 2023 expected earnings per share which is one of the lowest valuations that we've ever seen for Tesla and with a growth rate of at least 40 percent you're looking at a PEG ratio of nearly 0.5 so what happened today and why is Tesla trading at the time of this recording down nine to ten percent well Tesla reported deliveries however these deliveries missed expectations many folks when they first saw the numbers quoted this Miss as a huge miss a terrible Miss for Tesla yet when you actually do the numbers and you see that wait a minute the numbers of 405 278 deliveries was actually only off expectations of 420 760 by about three percent so deliveries missed by three percent and the stock is down about 10 percent and at the same time when we consider the fact that last quarter Tesla delivered 343 000 Vehicles Wall Street seems to be blind to the fact that Tesla is actually growing substantially faster than it thinks it is see Wall Street is looking for a 50 year-over-year growth rate rate for Tesla deliveries and unfortunately we delivered about 40.33 that's below 50 percent clearly and we're going to look at the earnings call in just a moment to see what kind of hints we got that we might in the near term Miss some of these 50 targets but what's remarkable is the following look at this next tweet that I sent just this morning Tesla stocked down nine percent after missing delivery Expectations by three percent yet Wall Street conveniently forgets that deliveries growing from 343 000 in the third quarter to over 405 000 in the fourth quarter represents an 18 gain quarter over quarter a sequential gain and a gain of 72 percent annualized what that means is if Tesla's deliveries continue to grow at 18 per quarter the annualized growth rate which is a multiple it is not an X phone and it's a multiple it's a path that you're on it's the speed you're traveling would mean that Tesla would actually be growing deliveries by 72 if they just stay on the growth trajectory that we saw between Q3 and Q4 that's absolutely phenomenal yet Wall Street isn't paying attention to this Wall Street is paying attention to the short-term Trend and quite frankly the trend is your friend it makes a lot more sense to be short stocks in this environment that it makes sense to be long stocks in this environment because the trend is your friend the trend of being short makes sense because we're heading into a recession however if you have a long-term mindset there's some pretty amazing opportunities to pick up inexpensive stocks in my opinion on companies that are actually growing substantially more than Wall Street is seeing while at the same time discounting them because of the cyclical trend of moving away from growth and into Staples and things like McDonald's which is shrinking Revenue at a time where we're heading into a recession and that's just what people do when they trade so what did the earnings call tell us in terms of a heads up well here's what the earnings call suggested here Elon Musk tells us that yeah demand is a little bit harder than it otherwise would be specifically not only because the FED is Raising interest rates the way they are but also because of the recession in China now exacerbated by the covet explosion where we're actually seeing Subway ridership plummet year over year but it's actually started just today taking back up at least in data released today so potentially a sign that maybe some of the worst of the covet surge is behind us which would be great for China we'll talk more about China in just a moment but Elon Musk here suggests so yeah demand is a little harder than it otherwise would be but I said earlier we're extremely confident of a great Q4 which this is 18 sequential growth 72 percent annualized is phenomenal and anticipate continuing growing our vehicle production and deliveries by on average 50 percent a year as far into the future sure as we can see now that doesn't mean we might not miss that 50 Target in the short term in fact Elon Musk here talks about trying to smooth out deliveries but one of the difficult issues being hey we don't have enough cars trucks boats trains whatever we need to actually get vehicles delivered and that's one of the issues that we see in the difference between production and deliveries here if we go back to the actual numbers released as Tesla actually produced 439 000 Vehicles we've got about 34 000 vehicles that still need to be delivered if we delivered all of those Vehicles this quarter holy smokes the numbers would have beat phenomenally but these are already great growth numbers 343 to 405 phenomenal growth numbers already but what does Elon tell us about the future well take a look at this regarding that 50 annualized growth Elon Musk says the following we want to focus on a high level about what we think is possible to our best to the best of our knowledge we believe that Tesla will continue to grow deliveries in Revenue production at 50 or greater at a compounded annual growth rate it might occasionally be a year that is a little less and then some years will maybe be a little more or a lot more some of our out-year planning we see the potential annual growth rates in excess of 50 so in other words the hints were laid in the last earnings call and even in other segments of the sortings call that look yeah in the near term we might be slightly below 50 especially on deliveries as Supply chains and delivery Supply chains actually catch up with the insane level of production that Tesla is at but if you just look at the numbers of the actual deliveries and realize we're growing deliveries at a 72 percent annualized rate elon's not wrong to say that growth rates in the future year over year could actually exceed 50 especially when we start looking into the whole of some of the slow times that we saw in 2022 every single quarter uh in the last three quarters that Tesla has reported deliveries have missed that hopefully sets up for easy beats in 2023 no guarantees of course we'll see but why are we potentially seeing this softness in Tesla is it because these vehicles are just so expensive is this just a situation where all of a sudden we're selling luxury Vehicles is that the problem with Tesla well let's consider this when the model 3 was first introduced it went into production at a price of thirty five thousand dollars and at the time in 2017 the average price paid for a car in 2017 was thirty four thousand nine hundred forty four dollars which means the Tesla Model 3 was actually perfectly in line with the average price of a vehicle sold in America that's not indicative of a luxury car brand that's actually indicative statistically of a model 3 being right in line with the average price of a vehicle in America today thanks to inflation and a lot of money printing the average car sells for forty seven thousand six hundred ninety two dollars the model 3 today is priced at forty six thousand nine hundred ninety nine dollars right before of course the seventy five hundred dollar incentive that the US government is now picking up the tab for on model threes and model y's making the model 3 actually significantly less expensive than the average price of a vehicle in America now some folks argue that oh but Tesla only had these delivery numbers because they had to aggressively cut pricing and while it's true that in China Tesla did have to incentivize demand specifically because not only are we seeing a large property recession in China but we're probably in a depression as China is releasing itself from the prongs of covet zero and finally allowing the economy to try to reopen China's going through quite a bit of a coveted wave and a lot of people aren't traveling or commuting in fact consider this tourism is just at 35 of the level of Tourism we saw in China in 2019 just 43 percent of the number of trips have been taken 35 representing uh tourism spend and movie theater spending is down 46 percent from just last year Subway ridership is as low as it was in May of this year during substantial coveted lockdowns now fortunately we are seeing a little bit of a rise again in Subway ridership suggesting that maybe covid in China has finally hit a peak but yeah look in China you've got big problems you've got crematoriums that talk about ordinarily burning 40 bodies per day now burning 140 to 150 bodies per day with bodies stacked up so high that individuals are starting to resort to burying people who have died in their neighborhoods because there's nowhere else to bring them iPhone city is back at 90 capacity and we're finally actually starting to see China potentially be on the course to a recovery which will probably be substantially beneficial to Tesla and sure Tesla did discount some of their vehicles 3 750 and then seventy five hundred dollars in December of 2022 here but now the government is picking up the tab in q1 and for the next foreseeable years at the same time as Elon Musk has at the very least pledged not to sell any more stock for at least the next year potentially not until 2025 which don't kid Yourself by looking at the daily volume of Tesla stock suggesting that Elon musk's shares could easily be absorbed by the volume that Tesla trades that's wrong elon's taking shares that used to be huddle shares and selling them actually eradicates a lot of hodler demand for the stock in fact Elon sold about 50 percent more than retail actually bought and held on net for Tesla stock that means even if every single retail buyer bought 50 more Tesla stock in 2022 Elon Musk would have still outsold them or I guess Elon Musk in that case if everybody's bought 50 more Elon Musk would have still matched every single buy with a cell himself that puts a lot of downward pressure on the stock and it's one of the big reasons in my opinion we've seen the collapse of Tesla stock valuation as much as we have but it creates a pretty neat long-term buying opportunity in my opinion especially when we look and compare to companies like GM GM has a gross profit margin of just about 13 and a net margin around seven to seven point nine percent Tesla earns about the same net income as GM does with about half of the total revenue of GM that means Tesla has about twice the bottom line margin of GM and about twice the gross margin of GM in other words they make twice as much money as GM does that's remarkable now something else to know is that GM is really only slated to grow between three to maybe six percent each year for the next about four years whereas Tesla we just saw is delivering cars at a 72 percent annualized growth rate even if we just sat at 40 percent growth for the next four years you're still nearly 10 Xing the growth rate that GM is looking at so look in a world where McDonald's can shrink revenue and the stock can be flat in a year and apple can grow revenue explosively and Tesla can deliver 72 percent more vehicles on an annualized basis quarter over quarter and these stocks are substantially underperforming my view is that fundamentals are out the window right now the only thing that matters in the stock market is the trend and that trend is down that's all that matters however that creates a really good opportunity to continue to build my exposure and quantity of ownership to things that I personally value very highly for example I just added more shares to an actively managed ETF that has a big allocation to Tesla that way when Tesla finally gets back to its appropriate fundamental valuation in the future in my opinion I believe they're going to be massive capital gains had for stocks or shares bought now in in Tesla or in ETFs that have a large percentage of their allocation dedicated to Tesla and in an ETF you could be potentially shielded from large capital gains and that's because of the amazing tax benefits of ETFs now of course no guarantees right I can't provide you personal financial advice even though I am a financial advisor but I can tell you I'm quite optimistic about the fundamentals that I see for Tesla now of course if it is true that Tesla does have a demand problem and demand all of a sudden falls off a cliff and Tesla never makes it to actually producing four to five million Vehicles a year and Tesla doesn't actually get to the the trajectory of being able to produce and sell 10 million Vehicles a year over time in the future Say by 2030 2035 yeah then if the growth story is over for Tesla Tesla stock collapses but based on the fundamentals that I'm seeing I personally don't see that whatsoever and again could be wrong so no guarantees but let's look briefly at the Wall Street consensus estimate for earnings per share for Tesla next year so that's going to put us at an EPS projection for 2023 and we're going to look at the year ended 2023 so year end 2023 we're looking at about five dollars and 18 cents of expected EPS that's Wall Street consensus it's five bucks let's go with five bucks even at 110 bucks this stock is trading for 22 times again about half on a p e ratio if you go out to 2026 at nine bucks a share this stock is trading for just 12 times 22 26 earnings now go ahead and compare that for example to a company like GM its multiple is going to be lower but remember the growth rate for Tesla you have to consider the growth rate for Tesla if you take 2022 and divide it by a 40 growth rate you're looking at a PEG ratio of about 0.55 if we do the same thing for GM next year we'll go ahead and go to an annual estimate for GM and we'll see that the annual 2023 estimate for GM is also about 5.90 per share and GM stock right now is trading for 33.84 divided by 590 is a p e ratio of only 5.7 but they're only growing at best at five percent over the next four or five years on average that puts them at about a PEG ratio twice as high as Tesla that means right now you are paying twice as much money for a dollar of growth at GM as you are at Tesla that's incredible it is incredible how much the Tesla growth story has been discounted by Wall Street and in my opinion if you can huddle boy I'm very optimistic that's all I'll say no guarantees could be wrong growth story goes away You're Gonna keep losing lots of money growth story stays we're gonna look back in five years and go damn wish I bought more thanks so much for watching if you want to Shadow me on a flight as we go look for real estate you want to join me on my private jet as we go hunt for Real Estate across the country check out the link down below and you can join me we'll take you to a destination we'll explore real estate and get to ask me questions and learn real estate with me just use that coupon code link down below thanks so much and we'll see the next one goodbye
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