저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
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테슬라 주가는 2024년 67% 상승했으나 경쟁 심화와 마진 하락으로 매출 정체. 2025 판매 15~20% 증가 전망이나 마진 불확실. 2025 EPS 32달러 전망, 2024 EPS 29달러로 2023(430달러 수준으로 언급, 원문 4.30) 대비 하락. 선행 PER 128배로 극단적 고평가, 실적보다 자율주행 기대감에 거래. 투자의견 매도로 하향.
다듬은 글
Tesla's stock price is up over 67% year-to date in 2024 despite the stock price falling in the last couple of trading days of the year with one trading day left it's safe to say that Tesla stock will probably have increased significantly in 2024 unfortunately I missed this increase in Tesla stock price at about the same time last year I made a video just like this one answering if investors should buy Tesla stock for 2024 and in that video I talked about how great of a company Tesla was but that the valuation was too high for a company in the industry it operates in for a company that does the kind of things that it did last year and for the most part it's doing just about the same things that it was doing last year so now I'm making this video for 2025 should investors Buy Tesla stock for 2025 so I'm going to re-evaluate the company at this point in time at current valuations and answer that question again here so let's jump esla's stock is up over 67% year to date with the majority of those gains happening after the election results in November or leading up to the election results in November investers seem to be more enthusiastic about Tesla following the election and Elon Musk the CEO of Tesla and his position within or around government with his relationship with the president-elect Donald Trump now while this has yet to result in any tangible benefits to Tesla the speculation is that there will be benefits for Tesla in some way shape or form because of the relationship that Elon Musk has with Donald Trump looking at Tesla's revenues over the last 5 years you can see a bit of a plateau here since 2023 the company had been growing very nicely up until that point but in 2023 is really when the Confluence of factors started to hit the company and slow down its growth number one competition increased significantly following all of the investments in electric vehicles and electric vehicle Industries worldwide since 2020 and 2021 when investors became very enthusiastic about the industry and companies ranging from large companies like Ford and GM to smaller companies like Fisker and Nia and rivan and lucid and and multiple others that were injected with billions of dollars in capital to go out and make more electric vehicles all of that competition even if those vehicles are nowhere near the performance well some of them are really good performance-wise but in terms of operationally those companies are nowhere near the operational excellence of Tesla in terms of electric vehicle production even though they weren't at that level they still hurt Tesla Tesla because those companies are still going out and purchasing the same materials or similar materials that Tesla is going out and purchasing and so the rising cost of those materials increased the cost of production for Tesla furthermore they did generate some sales right tens of thousands maybe not to the extent of Tesla which is generating close to uh 2 million units in sales of electric vehicles but still the competition has hurt and Tesla has had to cut their prices several times to Battle Competition and that's hurt Revenue now they are forecasting for 2025 an increase in unit sold of electric vehicles between 15 and 20% that would be an excellent achievement if they were able to accomplish that while maintaining profit margins and profits overall which there is some question if they'll be able to achieve that because they didn't really talk about margins when they were making that forecast they just said they're going to increase the unit sold and Tesla has been focusing more on increasing units sold rather than focusing on margins and they've let their margins fall quite a bit from the peak levels in 2023 So speaking of margins and profitability looking at their chart GE of net income on a trailing 12-month basis they and the cash flow from operations on a trailing 12mon basis they're still not at the peak they achieved in late 2022 for cash flow from operations and in early 2024 for net income on a trailing 12-month basis net income in the most recent trailing 12 months was 12.7 billion while the high point was 15 billion and cash flow from operations was 14.48% balance sheets of any car company it has $18 billion in cash and equivalence and only $7.4 billion in long-term debt it also wouldn't surprise me if Tesla used some of this increase in stock price that they've had over the last year over the last couple of months I should say and sell some shares of stock to raise billions of dollars more in cash for the business they are investing aggressively in developing driverless car technology which is going to take billions more before they achieve this full self-driving that they've been talking about for nearly a decade now this will be an opportune time for Tesla to raise that cash Shore up that balance sheet to make sure that they have the money to continue investing in driverless car technology because competition for electric vehicle sales will continue to intensify and and margins I believe will continue to narrow and compress and decrease and so this might be the only or the best way for Tesla to raise Capital but that's just my opinion I don't know how Tesla will feel about that because a lot of the share price increase is driven on momentum and they don't want to mess with that momentum right now by selling shares of stock so that remains to be seen but in terms of the actual operation of the business it would be great for the company to raise another 10 or 20 billion doar by selling equity and that way almost guaranteeing that they'll have enough money to reach that self-driving uh dream that they've been uh pursuing for a decade now looking ahead the expectations are for Tesla to deliver $32 in earnings per share in 2025 and you could see in 2023 they delivered $4 30 in earnings per share but here in 2024 it's expected to decline to $29 and they're not expected to reach their earnings per share level from 2023 not until 2027 is the expectation on Wall Street that they'll achieve those earnings per share Peak levels from 2023 but I think that's besides the point Tesla stock investors and if you're a Tesla stock investor I don't think there's very much concern about profits and cash flow and tangible results I think Tesla is more about something in the future um pointing to driverless car technology not really looking at what profits driverless car technology will drive but just the fact that they will develop driverless cars and the profits will be huge or the profits will be massive there hasn't been very much talk about the actual numbers the actual profits that's just the kind of stock this is this isn't a stock that trades on actual profits and cash flow this is a stock that trades more on enthusiasm and excitement and hope rather than tangible results so I don't think the earnings per share the fact that they're going to be significantly lower than they were in 2023 I don't think that's going to play a major contribution in the share price in 2025 I think that's going to be an overlooked factor that might be like the seventh most important thing thing that investors in Tesla stock look at the most important thing primarily being progress on driverless car technology the Milestones the next uh release the next update of their current supervised self-driving and the progress that they make that's going to be more important to the share price in my opinion than the actual earnings of the company and that excitement and that enthusiasm surround Tesla without the tangible increases in earnings and cash flow has driven the valuation to extreme levels Tesla's now trading at a forward price to earnings of 128 128 that's an extreme valuation in my opinion this is if you were to compare it with Nvidia it's trading at about four times the value of Nvidia it's trading at about four times the value of tech stocks and then I don't even want to begin to compare it to car companies but it's trading at 10 12 times the value of other car companies and four five six times the value of other large tech companies so while I think Tesla's an excellent company I think the development the Innovations they've delivered on electric vehicles on vertical integration on operational excellence on uh supervised self-driving those have all been Best in Class best in the industry it's just the valuation that concerns me it's trading at a forward price to earnings of 128 which tells me that a lot of that enthusiasm is already priced in so if I was to rate Tesla buy hold or a sell coming into 2024 I had it rated as a hold Market perform the valuation was expensive but it wasn't anywhere near as expensive as it is today the valuation being where it is to today I think it's a great time for investors to take profits in Tesla stock and actually sell so my rating on Tesla stock I downgraded it to a full-on sell on December 23rd 2024 and I'm updating that recommendation here today if you were to ask me buy hold or sell I have it rated as a sell
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