저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 레이 달리오(Bridgewater)는 성장 둔화에도 연준의 금리 인하 여력과 QE 옵션으로 2020년 대선 전 경기침체 확률을 50%에서 35%로 낮췄다. [달리오 견해 요약] - 18개월 전 대선 전 경기침체 확률을 50% 이상으로 봤으나 이후 35%로 하향. - 이유: 연준이 긴축을 멈추고 완화 쪽으로 기울었고, 연준은 250bp 인하 여력과 QE 옵션을 보유. - 달리오 추정: 경기침체 탈출에는 약 5%p의 완화가 필요하며, 금리 인하(약 2~2.5%p)와 QE(약 2.5%p 상당)로 가능. [글로벌 전망] - 세계 실질성장률 2% 부근으로 하락 후 유지, 인플레이션은 소폭 하락 전망. - 미국·일본·영국·캐나다·호주 모두 성장 둔화. 미국이 상대적으로 가장 나은 위치. - 유럽: ECB는 정치·구조적 문제로 완화 여력이 제한적, 만성적 저성장 가능성. 포퓰리즘 확산 리스크. - 일본: 저성장·저인플레, QE 여력은 있으나 효과 제한적. - 중국: 성장 둔화에 재정·통화 부양 확대 중이나 정상 성장 복귀에는 부족. - 신흥국: 성장·인플레 약세, 완화 여력은 있으나 회복에 불충분. [진행자 해석] - 미국 성장 둔화는 연준 부양을 불러와 주식시장에 우호적이라는 역설적 논리. - 신흥국 비중이 높은 운용사들이 많아, 글로벌 성장이 연결되어 있어 미국이 부진하면 신흥국도 부진하므로 미국 자산 선호 지속 전망. - 진행자는 미국 주식 강세 지속 쪽 입장. [출연자 전망] - 달리오: 대선 전 경기침체 확률 35%, 미국은 상대적 우위. - 진행자: 미국 강세장 유지 쪽, 단 베어마켓 제목 영상 예고는 농담조. [리스크] - 유럽 정치 리스크, 포퓰리즘, 중국 과잉부채·비효율 투자, 신흥국 회복 지연. [언급 종목·자산] - 미국 주식(전반) 상승 우호 발언, 신흥국 비중 축소 시사, 개별 종목 언급 없음.
다듬은 글
BD Big Daddy diio he is back with another article once again on LinkedIn and Linkedin should really be thanking diio because this is about the only thing LinkedIn is good for he's a influencer get it but in this article he's going to talk about why Bridgewater is less worried about a recession now that growth is plunging oh that makes sense right because growth is plunging there should be no recession but we're going to find out what he means in this video but before we do that let's let's get some more decorations this is sad one trophy I've participated a lot I have a lot more trophies but no we're not going to put another trophy there instead we are going to put a book there I've just been waiting for a time to unleash my Dalo Book for a doo article see my business partner Jose he said that I don't look smart enough in a kitchen that I need to fill my kitchen with books so that people think I'm smart no problem Jose no problem and this isn't just any Dio principles book this is a signed version and did you think it was signed to me no it's signed off to my cousin Puja who got this book and got it signed by Ry right here now did I know my cousin was a Dalo fan no absolutely not I assumed she was in a bookstore where he was doing a signing maybe or maybe someone gave it to her as a present cuz she immediately took it and gave it to my dad who was like why why do I want a book signed to someone else so he gave it to me that's right this book has already been handed down twice I am at the bottom of the Rong maybe I'll just change my name of Puja so that I feel like he signed it away to me and I mean it's not like I really needed this book cuz bam I already had had a copy but it makes sense right b dble d double Doos right here now I can do curls while I read but yes this this was also a gift to me see when people realize you like diio there's only one thing they can get you they were just so excited when he released a book cuz then they knew what present to give but okay we're going to we're going to add this to the decoration so people think I'm smart how's that look Double D for diio I am just a double D type of guy huh but okay now that our decorations are in place you all think I'm smart now let's get into this article so here's race starting about 18 months ago I assessed the risk of recession before the next presidential election to be over 50% because we at Bridgewater calculated that a the growth spurt would be temporary in fade and he's talking about the growth spurt that we've had for the most part over the last 18 months so he was saying that that growth spurt would cause the FED to change their policies and by policies he means raise rates and that would drive asset prices and then the economy down so the way the business cycle works if you increase interest rates the market is going to slow down and the economy is going to slow down too higher interest rates makes the cost of money higher which means there's less Easy Money floating around it's all liquidity right less liquidity is like less grease for the economy to function but because the Market's weakened and fed officials now see that the economy inflation are weak there has been a shift to an easier stance by the fed you know everyone thought Powell was real hawkish but now he's kind of slowed down a little bit with their rate hike path and for the same reasons because of weaker markets economies and inflation rates in other countries other central banks have also become more inclined to ease though they have less room to ease than rfed so for these reasons which are mostly the FED easing up while I expect there's still to be a significant slowing of growth in the US and most other countries I have lowered my odds of a US recession coming prior to the US presidential election to about 35% so 35% chance that we hit a recession before the next elections more specifically the FED now has both a the power to lower interest rates by 2 plus% and they have that power now and didn't have it before because they've been raising this whole time they're finally not in that outof bullet scenario that was so dangerous before and that every person used as their freaking article title for so long I get so sick of Finance catchphrases just overused way too much and then I just used it again and in addition to be able to drop things by more than 2% they also had that QE option still and he's saying B is the willingness of them to do that to prevent a recession which is like I said before Powell has become a little more doish the ECB which was the European Central Bank and the boj which is the Bank of Japan both had have much less room to ease for these reasons I still remain worried about economic weakness coming at the same time as Central bank's powers to reverse it are limited especially in Europe and Japan domestic and international conflicts are great and there will be elections in a number of countries so the US is still in the best position even when our growth slows it slows less than everyone else and he actually has some charts below about where growth and inflation are and where they're going to be so you can see here that world real growth is dropping it's close to 2% now but the Bridgewater estimate is that it kind of stays around here and inflation should drop a little bit according to Bridgewater developed World growth will drop their inflation will stay about the same and then we got growth for individual countries here which I don't I don't even know if you guys can see these charts for such a big daddy he's got some real small baby charts here come on Dia but the main picture is in US Japan Britain Canada Australia growth is just dropping across the board so he says in summary while the FED probably doesn't have enough Firepower to offset a deep recession the big sag that we expect is probably managing more specifically the FED now has 250 basis points of easing which will be more impactful than typical because of the longer durations of assets this cycle he saying the fed this time when they ease it's going to be more impactful because of all the debt that's been building up it's all more long-term debt than before so cutting rates will have a bigger effect plus they have the ability to turn QE back on which we estimate is roughly equivalent to the four to 5% of easing typically required to get out of recessions so according to Bridgewater's analysis when you get into a recession you need about 5% of easing to get out of it so you could say the first 2 and 1 12% comes from cutting rates cuz look right here their rates are 250 basis points right they could cut all that back down to zero then the other 2 and 1/2% to get to the 5% of easing that comes from QE so pumping money into the system it's that liquidity remember Easy Money helps the economy and I actually need to do a video on liquidity I don't think I've done that yet if you want to see that comment down below so he says that's the case for the us but when you're looking at the whole picture concerning foreign countries it's a little more concerning so in Europe the EC B appears unable and or unwilling to adequately ease because of politics and structural issues while circumstances the sagging growth in subt Target inflation Warren an easing so I think I talked about this before but the European Union is just a mess right you'll have a bunch of countries that are doing horrible and really want easing then they'll have to deal with Germany who usually does better than everyone else and doesn't want easing they're super strict and German and they want austerity so you always got that fighting between these countries that are so different they shouldn't be together it's time for a divorce in the European Union but it's one of those marriages where it was a time for divorce as soon as they got married it was a dumb idea from the start salio says that chronic slow growth is most likely and worse as possible especially if populist political forces continue to grow which is definitely happening cuz we're in the middle of a populist wave right now in Japan we also see low growth and low inflation with slightly more room to do QE and better yield curve controls than Europe has though the marginal effects of these will be limited so Japan's a little better off than Europe but not really I mean they're still in a bad situation in China we're seeing grow sag and the government responding with increased fiscal and monetary stimulation though not yet enough to return to normal growth so in China they are stimulating more and of course they're going to be more willing to stimulate because the Communist Party to keep their control they need the economy to do somewhat well you know XII ping he waited to get complete dominance over the country before he started enacting some of these reforms we haven't gone over China in a while but if you remember those videos they just had uncontrolled spending insane amounts of debt and all of it was just super unproductive but the government kept pumping that spending and allowed it to go on because that's what they needed to stay in power it's all adverse messed up incentives you know just everybody's trying to keep their place and stay in power and it just screws up everything but that's still China's main motivation that's Gigi Ping's that's his thing you know poar wants to keep that honey and then he finishes up with saying Emerging Markets are in the same bad place weaker growth and inflation with the ability to ease but not enough to actually recover all the way see the thing is the US is always the world's cleanest dirty shirt so even if growth is slowing here it's still the best Market to invest in so I was reading um Alex's recent Market brief and in it he was talking about positioning and sentiment and a bunch of managers are still way way overweight Emerging Markets because everybody thinks Emerging Markets are going to outperform now in this next cycle but the thing is global growth it's all tied together so tightly if the US is not doing well no one else is going to do well either so I don't really understand that em case that they're always going with and as I've explained in previous videos if everyone is piled into em then there's only one place to go for their money right back into US Stocks so that's a good sign for the US bull market and you remember in the beginning of this article I was laughing because Dio is less worried about a recession now that growth is plunging and that's the backward economics world that we live in because when things are not going too great The Fed is going to jump into stimulate and whenever the FED does that that just pushes markets so what what that means is that a slower economy is good for the bull market cuz you get that stimulus but hey this is all good for My us-based Equity strategy bring on the stimulus make me some money make the wealth Gap even larger because you know why not so if you like this video make sure you smash like if I get just 1,500 likes on this video I will start making videos of me reading Dio's book blindfolded on this channel if you want to see that smash like also subscribe to this Channel and hit that notification Bell because pretty soon I'm going to go over another market review we're going to go over the macro the technicals the sentiment we're going to see where markets are as you can already tell from this article we're in pretty good shape but regardless I will title that video is the bare Market here cuz that's what people love to click on they just Big Bear fans I mean go watch Animal Planet I don't get it but subscribe and I will see you in that video and in the meantime I mean we're publishing videos every day just come hang out with us it's so much fun I mean you know I'm smart look at my books I've got two books and a trophy for participation now I won that but just subscribe and I'll see you in the next video Stay fallible out there bye
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