저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라는 2025년 2분기 차량 인도량이 전년 대비 약 14% 감소하고 2분기 연속 감소했다. 에너지 저장장치 배치량은 9.6GWh로 약 2% 증가에 그쳐 성장이 둔화됐다. 영업이익률은 2.1%로 급락했고 순이익은 71% 감소했다. 자동차 매출 감소, 관세, EV 세액공제 폐지가 역풍이다. 자율주행·로보택시 기대는 이미 주가에 과도하게 반영됐으며 내재가치 약 $87 대비 주가 $316로 고평가라는 분석이다.
다듬은 글
Tesla July 23rd, 2025. Investors want to know if they should buy the stock before it announces earnings or after it announces earnings or if they should buy buying Tesla stock at all. can look out for from Tesla or what investors can expect from Tesla in the upcoming quarterly financial release because we have some information already that Tesla has reported to investors and I'll share those details with you in this video.
Of course, I've told investors not to buy Tesla stock this year. In fact, I started off 2025 rating Tesla stock as a sell and then I upgraded it to a hold it after about a couple of months after the stock price had crashed more than 40% to begin 2025. So, I'll let you know how I feel about the company now that the valuation is much lower, that we've seen the progress in robo taxi developments, in driverless car testing in Dallas, uh, in Texas, and what the company is forecasting for the rest of this year and beyond.
I'll let you know if any of my opinions about Tesla have changed since the last time I spoke. , what we know so far from Tesla's upcoming quarterly earnings release for Q2 is their total production and delivery numbers and the energy storage products outlet. So, let me start with the production and delivery numbers and then I'll talk about the energy segment.
Tesla reported deliveries of 384,22 from the second quarter of 2024. I'm sorry, from uh the Q2 2025 numbers, right? I'm going to compare them with Q2 2024 so we can see how much those numbers are different from the same quarter last year. All right. So, in Q2 2024, here I have highlighted the company's total delivery numbers and the company delivered 444,000 vehicles in the second quarter in 2024.
So, if you compare that with the current quarter deliveries, 384,122, a significant double-digit decline year-over-year, 14%, I believe, to be precise in terms of the total vehicle delivery declines year-over-year. That's the second consecutive quarter of Tesla reporting year-over-year decreases in vehicle deliveries.
Now, let me remind everyone that Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla, told you all, the investors of Tesla stock, that Tesla's vehicle deliveries will grow by 20 to 30% this year. That's what Tesla CEO told you all. Okay, let me just remind you of another promise made by the CEO to the investors or another forecast made by the CEO to the investors and the results of the actual numbers compared to the forecasts.
Okay, so now let me get to the energy segment. The company said it deployed 9.6 gawatt hours of storage products in the second quarter of 2025. So now let's compare that with the second quarter of 2024. I've also highlighted the storage deployed. You can see gawatt hours and we see Q2 2024. We go down to storage deployed 9.4 gawatt hours compared to the current quarter 9.6 gawatt hours.
So some growth here about 2% less than 2% year-over-year growth in gawatt hours deployed from Tesla in its energy segment. So now that we know uh the preliminary numbers of vehicle deliveries and storage deployed, let's look at the impact it's going to have on Tesla's financial statements. So in its most recently completed quarter, which was Q1 2025, total revenues were down 9%.
Right? Automotive revenues were down 20%. I expect automotive revenues will be down roughly 20% in Q2 also because the year-over-year decreases were similar to the year-over-year decreases in Q1. I would say more than 20% declines because the average selling price is was likely lower in Q2 compared to Q1 because Tesla keeps discounting and discounting and discounting to try and sell cars.
It's not working very well, but that's really the only thing they have up their sleeve right now is to just keep discounting. So, I expect year-over-year decreases in automotive revenues of between 20 and 25% for Tesla in the upcoming quarter. But what's going to be a big headwind for Tesla is the energy segment because in Q1 2025, they generated 67% growth in the energy segment compared to the same quarter last year.
when they report in Q2, I don't expect to see hardly any increase in the energy segment because when I'm comparing the energy deployed year-over-year, it looks like in only 2% increase and unless they were able to retrieve a much higher average selling price. Um, I don't expect to see a big increase in energy storage, energy generation and storage revenue.
So that's a segment I'll be watching closely uh in the upcoming quarter because that helped the company uh generate only 9% revenue declines even though automotive revenues were down. So in this quarter when they report total revenues I expect the declines uh to be in the double digits uh something between 10 to 15% year-over-year declines in total revenues.
Now the services and other revenue segment we didn't get much information on in the upcoming quarter. So I expect similar increases of the double digit uh magnitude for Tesla's services and other revenue segment. Now its operating profit margin has been in freefall uh 10.8% in Q3 2024 down to 6.2% 2% in Q4, down to 2.1% in Q1, and in Q2 2025.
It remains to be seen if they can return this number because the second quarter is a seasonally better quarter for Tesla than Q1. So, I don't expect the operating margin to fall below 2.1%. If it does fall below 2.1%, that would be alarming because uh the second quarter is normally a better margin quarter for Tesla, uh it's a vertically integrated business and for vertically integrated businesses.
When revenues are declining, their margins and profits decline by a much larger magnitude and vice versa. Tesla benefited from this when their business was booming during the pandemic during that unique scenario that I don't expect will repeat itself when its uh rival manufacturers had trouble securing enough supply to manufacture at normal levels, Tesla benefited and its sales soared.
And since other car manufacturers have been able to get their production back up and running, Tesla's sales are competitively weaker. as well as of course the actions the political actions of the CEO and the brand damage that's caused. And you can see net income fell by 71% in the most recent quarter.
So of course I know what you're thinking. Uh you're saying that car sales don't matter for Tesla. It's all about AI. It's all about driverless car technology and robotics and and etc etc. But let me explain why it does matter. And it's this number heresla's capital expenditures, these are investments in the development of that new technology, right?
This is uh the data centers for the artificial intelligence. This is the GPUs from Nvidia. These are the capital expenditures uh preparing for the robo taxi launch, etc. Right? These were down by 46% year-over-year to 1.5 billion. Okay? If Tesla's car sales keep declining and the company's profit margins and and profits overall keep declining, that's going to leave less money available to invest in that new technology, which will mean an even slower development of this technology that's already taking forever.
Right? Since 2016 or 2017, Tesla's been forecasting that next year we'll have driverless cars on the road. Next year we'll have it and next year and next year. and it's been 10 years and it's still next year. But if their car sales are declining and their profits are declining, that's going to mean even not next year but the year after that, right?
So, however long it's going to take, you can extend that out further if the company's not generating sufficient cash flow to invest in those categories. Now, the good news is they have a robust balance sheet, $37 billion in cash and equivalence. So they can use that and deploy that capital while the rest of the business struggles.
They can use existing cash balances to invest in the newer technology. But eventually that will run out. They need to generate cash flow from the core business in order to invest in future products. Otherwise, where is that money going to come from? Right? They're going to come back to you, the investor, and ask you to give them more money.
They're going to sell more shares of stock. They're going to dilute investors to raise more capital to invest in AI and robotics if this business is not generating sufficient cash flow which unfortunate to say I don't think it is. uh car sales in my opinion in my forecast will continue declining the energy segment services segment will continue growing but will that growth be enough to offset car sales and of course new legislation in the United States is removing the tax credits for EVs and additionally the tariffs are hurting the energy segment.
The company said in its latest earnings release that AI infrastructure is driving rapid growth for traditional utility customers and an outsized opportunity for their energy storage segment. However, the current tariff landscape will have a relatively larger impact on our energy business compared to automotive and we're taking actions to build to stabilize the business in the medium to long term while maintaining on its health.
So, it relies on the supply chains in China, which are hit with very high tariffs. That's going to hurt Tesla's energy deployment segment. You've already seen that in the very small uh deployment growth in the most recent uh quarter. So, all that being said, all of those headwinds impacting the business, you would think it's not it wouldn't be trading at such an expensive valuation, but you would be wrong because Tesla has done an incredible job marketing its future to retail investors who have bought into this story hook, line, and sinker.
The stock is trading at an absolutely massive forward price to earnings ratio of 161. This is a valuation that's reserved for companies that are demonstrating accelerating revenue growth, a very high return on investor capital, potential, business model, competition that's at least two steps behind.
Uh factors that lead to this kind of explosive valuation are not present in Tesla stock. So, I attribute the company's ability to garner this kind of evaluation to the management team's ability to market the stock to investors, which they've done better than any company I've seen in the past five, six, seven years that I've seen to be able to garner this kind of evaluation while your business tangible evidence success of your business doesn't substantiate this kind of evaluation.
So this is all the premium based on pulling forward all of the potential of driverless car technology and robotics. They're already priced into this valuation. I think they're already overpriced into this valuation. I think the prospects are overexpected here. Now I am forecasting substantial growth for Tesla and that growth I'm forecasting I'm basing it on development in driverless cars.
forecasting its growth in free cash flow jumps about 20x from 5.3 billion all the way up to 93 billion in 2035. So over the next 20 uh over the next 10 years, I'm forecasting an almost 20x increase in its free cash flow. But even after I do that, and I just updated this model today, the intrinsic value per share increased by about $3.
I previously had the intrinsic value around $84 a share. I increased it to $8764 a share. But the current market price is 316. So it looks incredibly overvalued regardless of the valuation metric that I use including my own proprietary valuation including the forward price to earnings which I got from uh uh fiscal.ai that provides me all of these charts and there's a link in the description.
So to answer the question, should you be buying Tesla stock before earnings? My answer is no. I don't think you should be buying it before earnings. I don't think you should be buying this stock at this valuation at all. Even after earnings, unless the price drops significantly after earnings, I don't think you should be buying this stock.
Now, that doesn't mean the stock price can't increase after the earnings. uh again as a result of the CEO Elon Musk being able to convince investors to buy the stock despite any improvements in the business. He can again uh make a forecast about some product uh make an announcement about some product in some point in time in the future and that can get investors excited and the stock price can actually increase substantially after the earnings results.
But that would be again just based on hype and enthusiasm because the company's uh revenue and earnings and cash flow are not likely to show any improvement in the current quarter or in the next quarter or in the quarter after that or in the quarter after that. So several consecutive quarters of declines or middle uh flat to declining revenue and profit expected for the company.
All the hopes rely on the CEO being able to get investors excited to buy the company and wait for something in the future. Hey everyone, if you like watching my videos, then I've added a great complimentary product just for you. I've created a book. highlights my sixstep investing framework. Even if you don't follow that investing framework, just reading it and knowing how I evaluate stocks will make it a lot more interesting and informative to watch my videos. I've added the link in the description below.
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