저자: DiamondArm · 외국인
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반도체 ETF(SOXX/SOXL 계열)가 저점 대비 크게 상승해 과열 상태. 역사적으로 큰 조정이 잦고 200일선 괴리가 커 위험이 높음. 계절성은 12월·1월 50:50. PER·PBR 등 밸류에이션이 S&P500과 반도체 ETF 모두 높아 단기 조정 가능성 시사. 장기적으로는 반도체에 강세 견해, 단기는 약세 쪽으로 기울어 있음.
다듬은 글
let's look at semiconductors because things are really getting elevated first off read this disclaimer carefully and like subscribe share and comment to gain full access to the content we will look at two leveraged etfs we will look at the bullish one the plus 3x semiconductor ctf which is a massive 676 percent from the 52-week low massively outperforming the nasdaq and s p 500 you know big time and you have the bearish one the minus 3x which is currently at 52 week lows obviously so far it's been very beneficial to be bullish the semiconductors let's do a full analysis and before we draw a conclusion about how we should trade the semis going forward so here is the seasonality of the semiconductor etf the so xx which is the benchmark it's basically this one the i shares vlx semiconductor etf okay you can see that november is literally the strongest month but we now have a new month and that is december december is a bit mediocre it is 53 percent of the time it the the city of closes higher than it opened so basically 50 50.
january is also literally 50 50. hence the current period is kind of up in the air okay so let's now look at the charts so here is all the data we have you can see that it went down big during the financial crisis but after that bear market this etf has been on a monster tier we have a whopping 1 400 ish percent gain from the lows obviously that's very good but something that becomes very apparent if you look at the history of this etf it goes up big but also goes down big during a bull market here the bottom of the financial crisis but notwithstanding that we had a new bull market this one had a big pullback of minus 33 percent here then here uh you know in 2015 we had a pretty deep minus 25 pullback here a big pullback here also a very big pullback in other words it is pretty clear that even though the ctf has big rallies it also has big pullbacks hence given that we now have had a monster rally after the pandemic plunge we need to be a bit cautious here this is not necessarily a good place to enter a new you know big bullish position the history of dctf which we have seen is full of deep corrections and also some smaller ones every now and then if you look at this correction here as an example a bit of a pullback but percentage-wise that was minus 15-ish percent if you used a leveraged you know bearish product that could be a pretty big gain for a bear if you look here at the rsi you can see that as far as the weekly rsi it can be overbought for longer periods hence just because it's overbought now doesn't mean that we can say that oh it's it's instantly a short let's now look at the daily data points we are very far away from the 200-day moving average if you look at some prior times where we were quite far away like here a big correction ensued if you go back here you see that when the distance got too big it started to behave more erratically and eventually we did have a deeper correction if we go further back here let's now do some studies here because the prior history of a security will give us some good indication of what could happen going forward here there is some very elevated distance from the 200 day and the price and then things start to get a bit rocky until we get you know we do get a deep corrections here here but also a very deep pullback here a lot of chaos in this region so basically the history of this product suggests that this is a high risk situation you know from a bullish perspective but it could be quite profitable from a bearish one okay now let's now look at the correlation between the etf and the leverage the alternatives so let's this is the succe if you are bullish and here you can you can see that there is um you know long term we have an 86 percent positive correlation that is pretty good i would like it to be bigger but 886 is decent if we go here to the shorter time frame there's 99 percent so close to perfect correlation so as far as the bullish leveraged edf it works pretty well let's look at the you know the bearish one s yes we start here with the long time frame so minus 75 um negative correlation so pretty decent tracking if you go here to the shorter time frame okay here we have investing.com um yeah they have not um corrected the chart after the stock involved the split so that is this distortion hence we need to take this negative correlation here with a grain of salt okay okay so basically there seems to be some decent tracking of the underlying index when it comes to both the bullish one and the bearish one but generally speaking we do see that the leveraged product that is in line with the primary trend it has a stronger correlation than the one that is against and that is because of the splits that will have a very big impact on the one that is against the primary trend which in this case has been very bullish here you can see the expense ratio assets under management heavily tilted tilted here towards the semiconductor bulls the average daily volume as well very much in favor of the bulls which has made sense so far if we go here to the etf comparison between the s p 500 and the semiconductor etf you know the unleveraged one you can see here that um you know obviously the assets under management is much bigger for the s p 500 so that's not like a big shock let's rather go here to some fundamentals here we can see that the price earnings ratio for the s p 500 is 34 which is rather elevated the price book ratio is 3.8 which is also pretty stretched if we go to the semiconductor etf price earnings is 31 and 5.7 for price book hence both are you know you know they are really stretched hence from like a fundamental perspective we do expect correction for both so what i think is going to happen going forward with the semiconductor sector looking far into the future like multiple years then i'm certainly bullish the semiconductors but looking at the coming months then the seasonality suggests you know basically 50 50.
but when you view the seasonality in context of the latest price development which has been euphorically bullish and given that the semiconductor etf has a very long history of of you know corrections both small but also quite a few deep ones i think that we could make a case that is a bit bearish for the coming months further when we look at the fundamentals they also suggest that not only the semiconductors but also the s p 500 it's pretty stretched at these levels we are very much do just a basic correction so that is what i would lean and i would lean in that direction based on the evidence at hand whatever you do of course you want to be careful in this market respect the trends and always have stops in place
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