저자: DiamondArm · 외국인
요약 보기
나스닥이 역사적 급등 후 신고가를 기록했지만 과열 신호가 많아 여름 조정이 임박했다고 봄. 계절성(6~8월 약세), RSI·A/D 라인 약세 다이버전스, 주요 빅테크(애플·MSFT·아마존·테슬라) 과열을 근거로 제시. 단 추세상 불장이므로 추세 추종은 유효하다고 인정하며, 역발상 관점에서 숏 또는 조정 대비를 암시함. 나스닥 대비 SQQQ 등 인버스 레버리지 활용 언급.
다듬은 글
let's look at the Nasdaq first I've read this disclaimer carefully okay here I can see the zeitgeist huge move but at this point even though I'm I am happy with these huge moves I'm starting to think that maybe we are due for a fallback because we haven't had that cease no weakness yet which we usually do have in these summer times and it's historically very healthy dynamic of the market so in this video we've a look at the Nasdaq which recently made new all-time highs it's had an absolutely historic move so we will look at the Gnostic ETF the QQQ we will look at the T QQQ which is a way to get three times three times the bullish leverage exposure and the sqq cuticular which gives you three times bearish negative exposure to the Nasdaq let's first look at the seasonality to the ghent the general rhythm of the market is that you have strength in the spring period and then it goes gets weaker into the summer times where you usually have a bit of a pullback a correction the healthy thing about having a correction is that you it helps create a very a you know reasonable and rational market because you know excesses are never healthy and after that pullback period we usually have some strengths heading into the winter times so that's the usual seasonality this year we had a very strong June so we have have already had strength so we are very dude that pullback which we usually have in this period so let's first look a bit here at the market again let's go to weekly data points first so this is the long-term picture here for the Nasdaq and you can then see that in this bigger picture you have to go all the way back to the dust come bubble to have something similar to the things we currently have but even the dot-com bubble took more time than this I mean this is just such a ridiculous move I mean it is pretty done extreme he look at how sharp this rally was and the issue with these kinds of rallies when they are this strong is that they distort the psychology of the traders because something you are probably aware of yourself is that when you have if you have a new position in your account and you see a red number meaning there's a loss you are much more quicker to sell and to keep the loss from getting big but let's say that you have a 40% gain on a stock you have probably observed that you're willing to take a much bigger loss on a gain there then you are on a losing position but from an objective standpoint losing you know 20 percent of a 40 percent gain it's just as bad as losing you know 20 percent on just you know a losing position from the get-go but this illustrates how you can get those huge rallies but also these major crashes because the people psychologists distorted they are willing to take a much bigger loss because it takes quite some time for them to see that red number in their account and also read to just notice notice that no the green color they're seeing it actually has lost a lot of its prior value so my point here is that this is simply not a bit not healthy this is a healthy market this right here is just very excessive hence even though from a currently objective standpoint obviously the Bulls are in control there's nothing more bullish than the new all-time high but if you look at the history here and this is just without much precedence so if you look at some of the previous rallies like if takes this rally here it took 126 days 32 percent gain if you look at this rally right here this was 130 percent one hundred and seventy-five days they take this rally here so you have 53 H percent gain in just 112 days that is a lot that's a whole lot and so you are a very very do for a pullback we just are so you gotta ask yourself the question you know from a shorter-term standpoint looking at the coming weeks you know if you were to be bearish on domestic have some short position how much of a rally to the upside could hurt you you know at this point at these elevated levels I mean and because there's many companies here you know Amazon and Tesla that's had they've had these extreme moves they're really really almost begging to be shorted I mean they just really are I mean this is just very very excessive mean and reversion is a common thing in this summer period as well you haven't had that yet so we were very much do you can work the case that there is a darish divergence between price and the RSI looking at the accumulation distribution line you can also see a bearish divergence between the recent move and what's going on here meaning this recent rule here has not been on massive volume buying volume that is hence it could be a bit of a blow off top yeah there's an 87% positive correlation between the NASDAQ and S&P 500 so they do move together let's now look at the correlation with these leveraged products so let's have the QQQ here keep you get in here in the background like down here and then we look at the t2qq if you can't give that we all have that if you click it you can see here that there is a 93 percent positive correlation between the not stock and the T QQQ so they take you to you it's it is the bullish leveraged ETF given that it's only caught on post 93% positive there is you know you know the remaining percentages there you know from 100% means that there is some divergence here if I go to the daily date points there's an 81% positive correlation and they do damage but generally speaking the t2qq it is a decent way to get leverage to polish exposure to the Gnostic if you measure from this low to the recent I 240 percent that's pretty decent that's a big move so the leverage effect has certainly worked throughout this rally but you can see here that the t QQ has not made a new all-time high which is reflective of stata divergence let's now look at s QQ kia this is the one for if you want to be bearish on the Nasdaq of course the a better way to be bearish on the Gnostic would be to short the QQQ or to use option strategies on the QQQ because the QQQ is very liquid very liquid but the tqq and sqq are some leveraged products with decent liquidity but we can see that the valances here's a sqq there is a minus 91% negative correlation on the weekly data points so in this case there is they do track reasonably well but not not like perfectly on the daily data point is actually get worse - 78% so the correlation is strongly negative if it is negative enough for it to be a way to be bearish on the not stock but it but good - cemet 8% it means that the remaining percent are our divergences from the underlying index so this is one of the ways in which you can illustrate the risks with these leveraged products which does take the form of these divergences from the underlying index but as we solve it the gain from the low of deity QQ Qian it has worked you know it simply has from the lows I mean that's a pretty decent gain but it is just something to be aware of but yeah let's actually look at some before I make my conclusion on the Nasdaq let's look at some other data there's the QQQ extremely liquid the average daily dollar volume here is 8 point it's almost 9 billion US dollars so extremely liquid super tight spread the issue is that you know the reason why I'm thinking a bit more bearish now is because the price earnings ratio is 27 if you look at the total world stock market market ETF the p/e here is 19 the price book pressure for the Gnostic is six well the Duke pressure here for the total world stock market is two again um value investors preferable price book to be below one so the Gnostic is really richly valued the yield is 0.65 percent so you are basically not from a dividend perspective you are not incentivized to like hold on yeah so to some of my type okay quite Charlotte quite thoroughly the Bulls are in charge of the not start and so the Bulls are in charge so as far as don't fight the trend we need to respectable just ten just did okay however the contrarian in me cannot help just cannot help to think that of all the times to put on a short position a perished position on the Nasdaq this is probably one of the best from like the contrarian standpoint in the sense that we have had this excessive move of the loss of T recent lows we are in a season where there historically is weakness throughout this entire period we see the strength spring strength late part of the earth and this in this middle period is very characteristic we do have at least a month of some clear weakness in this period the June was the weak month here as well the June was too weak month we did have a very strong June this year they are very do that pullback it is healthy it is very normal it's part of the market rhythm to maybe pull back to like the 50-day moving average yeah yeah so let's actually look at some of the components of the enough stocks to sort of look at where where they are trading so let's look at the biggest ones so let's so as Apple Microsoft Amazon Facebook okay so let's do it in that order look at Apple Apple here also new all-time high let's look at it a bit more historically I mean this look at look at how excessive this movie has how sharp it is look at what's happened previously usually there are pull backs that that is simply how the market works this is very bubble ish this is euphoric as up with Microsoft here again we see something quite similar a very accessible huge move overbought condition there are stations here on the RSI if you look at the long history here of them of Microsoft there usually are pull backs it is how it works let's look at Amazon Novell a key component and look at this this is it ridiculous I mean this is starts basically begging you to short it may look at this move I mean obviously it's been very difficult to short it the Bulls are in control let's be perfectly clear that think the trends be your friend I'm talking about Paris position here from a contrarian standpoint the evidence is in fear of the Bulls but look at this move it's ridiculous so how much of how much more of a rally do you actually risk by being bearish on the Nasdaq at this point or Amazon specifically seriously it's ridiculous it's ridiculous Facebook is not that crazy but it is yeah it is sort of cooling down a bit Tesla is just crazy okay so I mean look at this move look at how wild this move is like to be perfectly clear I am bullish on this on Tesla long-term I'm very bullish on Tesla I think Elon Musk is a transportation prodigy okay Houston his brilliant transportation is his gift but come on I mean this one is practically begging you daring you to put on a short position I mean what more what you actually risk by being bearish on Tesla short-term at this point seriously yeah just crazy stuff let's look at some of the seasonality here of these stocks we look look let's look at Apple see if what kind of how it usually acts in this current period you can see that June is historically a week month and that was definitively not the case this year meaning we are doing a pullback here on the nos start I mean I mean on on Apple let's look at Microsoft go looking at the seasonality long-term strength early strength late you can see that in this period their usual is weakness we haven't had that so historically we'll do the one when it comes to the not stuck I mean to the Microsoft as well yeah let's look at Amazon look at this so you can see that this current period summer early early autumn is is historically one of the weaker periods we already do very much do a pullback it would be completely natural it's practically begging you to be short at this point ok blah blah blah when it comes to Facebook it is a bit different certainly it yes but you can see here that awesome and the autumn that autumn winter is actually wanted to be clear periods so that's a bit different let's look at Tesla Tesla go ok like this ok the June is actually one of the stronger ones and that is that's definitively the case no doubt about that one Jonas is strong but July is actually one of the weakest months I mean it is literally the weakest month so from seasonality perspective Tesla is taking year to short it I mean they're a bear in mind not that far back Elon Musk said that the current stock that the stock price for Tesla was excessive a hair I actually found it like hair so Elon Musk said Tesla stock price is too high and this wasn't May 4th ok so Ellen musk made headlines Friday after he tweeted that Tesla's Jerris was too high a strange for a chief executive to do planning his own stock his tweeted Tesla which fell $60 so so he's so on Friday what was that okay so around May 4th so let's look at May 4th here so let's go back so here it's May 4th so when Tesla was at these around these levels here here Elon Musk said Justice that the stock price was too high this is where we are now ok ok yeah I think you get my tech is it so just to sum up here to be perfectly clear Bulls are in charge of the NA stop okay letting the trend be your friend it makes sense to be bullish however quite clearly looking historically you could make a super strong case I think that the a lot of the upside has already been made at least for the temporary period meaning this is the time to start to think like a contrarian in the same way that when you see a major pullback you think about buying the dip meaning here you would be more contrarian same thing here here the the you know the big brain investor tech galaxy brain is to think maybe be bearish okay so buy low sell high but yeah whatever you do of course don't fight the trend made the trend be video of course but I think you sort of get my point in this specific instances you
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