저자: Alex · 외국인
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나스닥은 현재 과매수·이례적 강세 구간이라 역사적으로 보면 조정 가능성이 높다는 진단. 50·100주선 등 과거 눌림목 수준과 괴리가 커 조정 확률이 높다고 보며, 새 상승 포지션 진입은 불편하다고 함. RSI 베어리시 다이버전스, 지수와 레버리지 ETF 상관 및 괴리 언급. 결론적으로 추세 추종(강세) 하되 눌림 후 진입을 권하고, 약세 베팅은 타이트한 손절 전제로만 언급.
다듬은 글
alex from diamond arm first off read this disclaimer carefully let's look at enough stock we have a look at three etfs the sqqq which is the bearish uh leveraged option and then you have the tqqqqq which is the bullish one you can see that that tqqq is a massive 325 percent from the 52-week low that's a massive gain and of course we'll look at the nasdaq the qqq 69 and at all time highs first let's look a bit at the seasonality so this is q q qqq the nasdaq versus the s p 500 and it shows us that uh july and october historically are some of the strongest months here for the nasdaq vis-a-vis the s p 500 if we look purely at the nasdaq you can see that this current the the mid to early artemis part of the year is usually a period where we have corrections in the nasdaq we definitely have not had had it so far but that's a bit of a you know a warning though october and november are usually strong okay so the etfs we will look at is the qqq the t qqq which is the one if you are bullish and the s qqq if you are very much bearish so the tqqq and sqqq are the leveraged ones in order to determine our bias we need to look at the history of the nasdaq the big picture so these are weekly data points all the history we have so let's now um do some basic analysis okay so here you can see before that that can bubble the nasdaq you know it usually has some pullbacks but um here you had the pullbacks and then you had the massive uh rally very consistent rally but that was the major top and then you have you know multi-year bear market and even even during um the post-crash bull market the nasdaq was very far away from the all-time highs and you can see that during this bull market nasdaq moved in cycles it pulled back quite frequently to the 100 or the even the 200 week moving average then you have the double bottom and then you have the new bull market which is the current bull market and you can see that throughout this entire bull market nafta cast frequent blowbacks do you like the 50 week moving average or even the 100 week moving average the 200 week moving average you know that's um that would signify a far more you know more dramatic pullback but you can see that there are these frequent pullbacks 50 in the 100 week moving average that's the classical thing it even likes to pull back as you can see quite frequently to the purple 20-week moving average that's the norm this is the current behavior of the nasdaq you can see that we are very far away from these classical pullback levels even though historically as we have seen nasdaq likes to pull back to them which begs the question what weighs the most this anomaly or all the other history of nasdaq you know obviously it makes most sense to weigh all of the other history as being far more meaningful and even if you look at all the previous history the closest analogy we have to this major super strong rally is this rally before the total crash and this rally here before this crash or potentially even this rally here before this correction basically what i'm saying here is that at these levels here on the nasdaq there's a high probability of a correction i would not feel comfortable entering a new bullish position here if you look at some other metrics let's jump to the daily data points and let's look at rsi let's load all the data we can have to really get to know that big picture so here you can see the rsi this is all the history we literally can get here with the nasdaq and you can see if we go way back here the nasdaq doesn't like to be overbought or oversold it likes to stay within the rsi zone throughout its entire history that's what it likes to do when it gets overbought it quickly can trigger a pullback when it gets oversold there will be a bounce given that we've spent quite some extended time now moving around in the upper rsi level and it's been quite some time until we revisited the lower part of the rsi we have a historical anomaly which and then you gotta ask yourself the basic question what is most reliable is this the trend that you you should be focused exclusively on or should you also look at all the other history of the nasdaq logically it makes sense to be more skeptical of this now given how long it's been since we saw that correction there is an 87 uh correlation with s p 500 that is pretty strong if you look here at the daily data points the accumulation distribution line it is corroborating the recent rally that's good bullish we do however have a bearish divergence on the rsi and that's something we had here as well before the major pandemic crash okay so basically if i were to sum up my take here on the nostalk yes quite clearly the bulls are in control there's no doubt about that we have only pulled back here to the 20 day moving average we are very far away from these other moving averages which is of course it's bullish but at some point uh a trend that is very overextended it should make you think more like a contrarian you know when you see a stock is up a lot without the break then you need to be a bit more skeptical of how much there's left in that move so when you when you try to enter a bullish position try to enter it after a pullback if you want to enter a bearish position you want to do it close to the recent to the exhaustion surge high you don't have signs of exhaustion yet though from the balls they are strong but it's very overextended let's now look a bit at the correlations uh with these leveraged products so now we have the qqq in the background then we look at the ti which is the bullish one 94 positive correlation meaning it does work but there is some divergence if we look here at the daily data points there's 91 positive correlation it means that around 9 percent is divergence but it has worked out but there is also that divergence when it comes to the sqq we do have a problem because there's recently been a stock split and investing.com they are very lazy when it comes to recalculating the leveraged um etfs hence we do not really get any useful data here unfortunately okay yeah okay so basically we have um the nasdaq here here you can choose some trend lines as well from finn this is this trend line and this um and you can see that we are touching the resistance on this uh trend line yeah and if you look here at the performance it's really high so that's of course bullish there are options available on the nostalk and also it is shortable and it is one of the most liquid products out there okay whatever you do of course with the nasdaq uh don't fight the trend uh we want to see some signs of weakness before i return uh bearish if you do put on a bearish position with you know trying to sort of nail the top then you at least want to have a very tight stop level because it has been it it has been possible to short enough and make money if you had a super tight stop level you know during these very small pullbacks but you know there's not been obviously this has been very favorable for the bulls and the much more challenging from the bears for the bears but this is an anomaly that's the thing hence all those bears who did get beaten up during at least the later push of this rally sure we could make fun of those bears but then again what the bears were doing made perfect sense given all the history of the nasdaq and you asked ask yourself the question do you want to rely on the vast majority of the history of a product or potentially an anomaly okay so may the trend be with you
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