저자: Kevin · 외국인
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2022년 5월 CPI 발표를 분석. 헤드라인 YoY 8.3%로 예상(8.1%)보다 높았고, 근원 CPI 월 0.6%로 예상(0.4%)을 크게 상회해 연준 긴축 지속 우려 제기. 항공료·대중교통 급등이 근원 물가를 0.24%p 끌어올렸다고 설명. 임대료 월 0.5%가 물가 안정 저해 요인. 10년-2년 스프레드 약 30bp로 회복, 5년 BEI 반등. 나스닥 하락, 경기침체 가능성(2분기 GDP 확인 필요) 언급하며 단기 반등 기대 약화.
다듬은 글
everyone meet Kevin here okay so here's exactly what happened with CPI and why we had a miss the expectation was that we were going to have year-over-year inflation come down from eight and a half percent to eight point one percent we got 8.3 so it's in the right direction suggesting that inflation might be peaking but the real Hope was that inflation would come down to at least 8.1 if not even more so that way we could clearly Define a peak even though we're kind of like making that turn and we're rotating down the concern now is that well crap what if we're going to sort of plateau at higher levels now at first read I was a little nervous and I only started feeling a little bit better when I actually looked at the details of the numbers and those are what we're going to go through in just a moment with some charts uh month over month headline inflation was expected to move up Point uh two percent and we ended up getting point three percent and core inflation was expected to move up point four percent that's because as food and energy comes down the other core sectors were expected to uh to sort of uh come down to the effect where when we take out food and energy we'd have the larger increase on on the headline numbers for month over month but when we look at core we thought we would uh by not removing these sort of negative hits to gasoline and food we would end up seeing uh not as great of an improvement in month of month course so we're expecting 0.4 but we got point six so we missed on Headline year over year by point one the headline month over month by point one and core by point two that's the bad one though because that's the one the Federal Reserve told us hey we want core to go down and it went down from last month last month we had a 1.2 percent gain right that was insane that was potentially a peak but still 0.6 percent pretty hot because point six percent means core inflation is still moving at seven point two percent that's sort of the speed that we're going at that's called the annualized rate uh and so when I looked at uh the actual CPI report we could see this is sort of the reflection of what it looks like when we see CPI starting to rotate down we were hoping again to have more of a rotation down and we really got kicked in the butt right here with this core uh number which is this section right here that really kicked us in the butt and there's a particular reason that I believe core came in so high and it actually remember this is the weird thing okay core is supposed to strip out it's supposed to be minus energy and food now energy and food includes gas right but here's the problem part of core is actually Airline and public transportation both of these price their fares based on how expensive Gas and energy is and we know that Brent crude and WTI Crude are still above a hundred dollars a barrel each and that leads to some expensive gas prices obviously off the peak but take a look at some of the gains we've had here on airline prices in January we had 5.2 percent increases in airline prices in February 10.7 percent and in March 18.6 percent you'd think that may have peaked but because we're also at the same time as we have relatively high gas prices seeing a surge in demand what did we end up getting we got 21.9 of an increase in Airline uh ticket prices public transportation went up one point a 14.4 percent which is right above it look at these two numbers right here if we just take the weight of airline prices which is taking this weight right here the relative importance rate of about a half percent multiplying that by the increase we get we can explain about point one two percent of the Miss solely from Airlines if we then include public transportation by going 0.00836 which is the weight multiplying it by 14.4 we get another 1.2 percent so you're literally getting or or 0.12 in this case you're you're getting a combined uh 0.24 increase to core solely because of Airlines and public transportation now when we take a look at visualizing some of the changes here look at this this right here tells you how much rent contributes to inflation that we're seeing and it's been consistently coming in at about point five percent month over month but it's becoming more of that stabilizing force in CPI that's actually keeping inflation hot in the fact that while while rent is still going up 0.5 percent other things are coming down so this is carrying more weight uh so that's something to keep an eye on uh and then here are your leading uh decliners so these are things that went down in price from the last month and so we could see admission to Sporting Goods down here uh gasoline down about 6.44 motor fuel down 5.81 uh energy Commodities laundry equipment information technology these are things that came down look at this one televisions came down uh apparel like women's suits men's apparel jewelry personal computers and peripherals these are things that came down somewhere to the anywhere between eight percent and two percent month over month two percent declining computers by the way month over month that's actually a pretty good move because that's somewhere around if we do 2 times 12 to annualize that that's like a 24 year-over-year decline what do you get a two percent decline month over month on computers so you kind of see some of that weakness potentially in the chips you know that makes me sort of think of like Corsair it makes me you know when we see washing machines laundry equipment I think of Whirlpool I think of Nvidia uh you know not so much looking at potentially apparel although you have a big apparel section within Target and then apparel stores themselves whether that's Nordstrom or whatever else uh going to the upside you really see that disaster here in uh in airline fares public transportation eggs margarine window coverings sewing machines milk transportation services so again the more we look at things like here transportation services Airline fare public transportation this is interesting I want to actually see what the weight here is for transportation services I think that's the category right here though yeah it is it is look at that this uh category moved 3.3 percent as a full category here but I prefer to just look at these right here because these are sort of they give us a little bit more detail they really tell us that this inflation read again missed probably by about 2.4 percent well I should say like it makes more sense to look at like this 0.24 there we go uh percent solely because of these two things here now personally I actually don't think that's as scary uh however the Market's gonna hate this right the nasdaq's selling off we've got the uh tend to spread down the 10-2 spread is now I'll show you a screenshot here 10 2 which is our yield curve remember zero means an inverted yield curve take a look at this right here uh we we were actually steepening nicely we're at 30 basis points right now which is still higher than where we have been uh since uh since essentially March which was a disaster April 1st when we had our inversion of the yield curve this was really the beginning of the stock market sell-off we've had the last five or six weeks here now but but uh you know we've come down not down as much as we were which is good but 10-year yields back up to over three percent and if we look at the break evens uh take me a second to get it here and get the break evens up five year Break Even which is sort of the bond Market's expectation of inflation here we go we get the following chart and we could see that we've really been seeing this nice decline here inflation this is really really good in the Market's expectations for inflation really really good to see this but really bad obviously that uh you know now now we're getting that pushback to the upside it's just breaking that trend of falling a falling Break Even expectation which it happens you know we get these little breaks to the upside hopefully it ends up being transitory but that missing course sucks and unfortunately the Federal Reserve can't just look at this and say oh well it was just Airlines no big deal well it actually is a big deal because you know you've got a situation where the Federal Reserve has to see okay well this crazy Airline spending clearly means that Airlines have pricing power and if Airlines have pricing power it means the consumer is still spending like crazy and it just solidifies the fact that we need continued 50 basis point hikes which really sucks now if you jump on over to the actual QQQ here you can see uh this this essential disaster Happening Here the NASDAQ now down 1.85 you actually see a less of a degree of pain in Tesla than you ordinarily would Tesla usually has a beta of two to the NASDAQ which would mean we would expect Tesla right now to be down about 3.6 it's down about 2.3 percent so you're actually seeing less of of pain here and I'm not exactly sure why but that's what the Market's doing sitting at about 782 right now NASDAQ a 1.59 my suspicion is you know reads like this are probably going to almost with certainty push us into uh recession in Q2 here and we're going to look back at this time which we won't actually know probably my guess until let's see the second quarter ends April May June probably late July early August we'll have the next GDP data and that GDP data is going to tell us you know potentially that we're in recession and which we could be at the entire year now it's also worth noting that tomorrow we have PPI numbers that are coming out PPI uh final demand is expected to come in month over month at 0.5 percent down from 1.4 uh the core is expected to be 0.6 and and I mean if we get a miss here as well to the upside it's just it's not going to end the pain for the stock market anytime soon so I do think this puts you know essentially cold water on on hopes for a short-term rally here kind of disappointing and uh all thanks really there to uh Airlines which really good measure though of consumers right you know so uh here's here's your report you could think uh you could thank consumers for traveling speaking of which I have a flight today yeah flying to Florida got to go to Tampa then I gotta fly to Miami uh then after that I got a flight of Florence Italy so there won't be a market closing live stream today because you know I'm flying around uh sorry I guess that means I'm contributing to inflation which contributing to inflation you know I guess I guess maybe I'm also hurting with that by by reminding you that we're gonna have the largest price increase ever ohis probably feels quite insensitive to be talking about this in the CPI report so I'm just going to kind of like slowly back away from that one uh yeah
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