저자: DanFitzpatrick · 외국인
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결론: 영상은 SolarCity·테슬라·디즈니 3종목에 대해 단기 매매 관점에서 하락 또는 단기 반등 매매 가능성을 언급하며, 장기 투자 권유는 아니다. SolarCity(SCTY): 이익은 흑자였으나 가이던스가 나빠 주가가 크게 하락했고 약 50% 가까이 빠졌다. 유가가 낮은 환경에서 태양광 테마의 매력이 약해 추세가 이어질 수 있다고 봤다. 볼린저 밴드 하단 이탈로 내일 단기 반등 매매가 가능하다고 말했으나, 이는 어디까지나 단기 트레이드용이다. 테슬라(TSLA): 실적 발표를 앞두고 목표가가 180달러에서 165달러로 하향됐고 주가는 약 15달러 수준으로 언급됐다. 모델X 팔콘윙 도어 문제와 생산라인 이슈가 부담이며, 주가가 더 낮아질 수 있다고 봤다. 실적과 일론 머스크의 생산 관련 발언을 확인한 뒤 접근하라고 했고, 풋옵션 매수를 고려한다고 언급했다. 유가가 20~30달러로 떨어지면 전기차 수요가 약해질 수 있다는 우려도 제시했다. 디즈니(DIS): 주간 차트상 하락 추세이며 2014년 이후 52주 신저점을 기록했다. 88달러 지지선 근처에서 매수하고 89~90달러에서 매도하는 단기 트레이드를 제안했다. 다만 추세가 꺾이지 않는 한 하락 추세가 유지된다고 보고, 개장 후 몇 분간 시초가 위에서 거래될 때만 매수하라고 조건을 달았다. 리스크: 세 종목 모두 실적과 가이던스, 유가 등 외부 변수에 민감하다. 모든 조언은 단기 매매 전제이며 손절 기준 없이 추격하면 손실 위험이 크다. 출연자 전망: 사회자 Dan Fitzpatrick은 종목별로 단기 반등 가능성과 하락 추세 지속 가능성을 함께 열어두었으며, 장기 전망은 제시하지 않았다.
다듬은 글
if you're a hardcore Trader you probably got CNBC on all day you watch the opening bell you watch power lunch you watch the closing bell fast money mad money you kind of see it all okay during the course of the day you'll see all kinds of stocks covered all kinds of news flashes new stocks um earnings downgrades upgrades stuff like that okay lot of stocks I'm here to talk about the three stocks that I saw on TV and tell you what you didn't hear on TV and let's see if we can make some money okay first up today is Solar City uh where's the little blue arrow here because we always have the blue arrow right where the current price is well let's Zoom down there it is what happened okay the company actually reported a profit which was good problem is they had really really poor Guidance the market Traders you and me we don't really care what kind of money a company made over the last quarter that money is already in the coffers it's already baked into the price of the stock what we really care about is like what are our expectations what are the Market's expectations and what are the company's expectations for how well it's going to do going forwards so when a company guides down the stock is going to essentially say you know Traders are going to say well the multiple that I was willing to pay based on these great earnings that's not the multiple Le I'm going to pay next quarter or the quarter after that because the company's saying we ain't going to be doing so well so the stock trades down like really down think LinkedIn and by the way buying this first bounce on LinkedIn I'm digressing here buying the first bounce here oh it's a nice up day great this is the low that doesn't work okay when there's no immediate bounce on the stock and there wasn't yesterday you you don't you don't want to S sit around and wait for everybody to realize that LinkedIn was supposed to bounce oh but the stock took how much of a haircut oh my gosh it's down by 43% okay well that's got to be enough that's got to be oversold well not really now it's down over almost 50% my point is this when you see Solar City trading tomorrow for a trade it might be worth um buying the stock just because it's fallen so far outside these Binger bands from a statistical standpoint these bands either got to really stretch down a lot or the stock maybe will bounce a little bit but I'm telling you this is a stock that's kind of been in a downtrend for a while um for the same reason the Tesla is falling which I'll get to in a second you got to think about this too um solar energy with oil so cheap from just a thematic stand stand point from an in you know for investors they're not really going to say wow solar is the thing of the future and I get the whole thing about global warming or you know now we call it um climate change because the Earth really isn't warming but we still want the Global Tax um I get all that but with oil so low frankly you're just not going to see that much of a move into solar um so just keep that in mind if you're buying the stock tomorrow seriously it's for a trade it's only for a trade now okay Tesla they report earnings after the Bell um tomorrow and here's the thing with that they got a couple things happening here first of all there was a price downgrade um after uh after hours it was like from 180 I think it might have been Barkley's but I don't really remember and I don't really care which one it was I don't care what any particular um analyst thinks about a stock uh unless it's Dan Niles talking about semiconductors but that was last century uh they downgraded like from a 180 price Target to a 165 all right well the stock's down at 15 now so it better turn around pretty quick but here's the thing with Tesla there's a couple things going against it first you know that x uh that model X that's the G Wing I'm actually moving my arms right now but you can't see um the G Wing or Falcon Wing whatever you want to call it um they're having a problem like making those be gwing or Falcon wing where they actually open so that's a problem because everybody can want the car but they want it to work right if investors don't think that it's gonna that's going to be a big deal so frankly it's not just what the earnings number is going to be tomorrow that's the most important it's going to be what Elon Musk has to say about their assembly line about their ability to get that thing to work that's a big deal and that's part of the reason I mean why this St this looks like a Felman and Louise like they got in a Tesla um P85 and are flying off a cliff this thing can go a lot lower it has always been an expensive stock it's what Jim Kramer calls a cult stock um you know you're a tonian or you're not just like in the old days Apple people just believed in apple it didn't matter what it did now it's Tesla or at least it was Tesla so don't look to just buy this on the dip wait until you know wait see what earnings are are going to be uh tomorrow see how the the stock reacts to those earnings and then you can make a little trade frankly just spitballing here I'm I'm tempted to buy a few puts on this even though I know they're super expensive but when I look at this chart I hear about issues with their production line and I hear about 20 25 maybe $30 oil suddenly electric cars for most people aren't really the thing I love my Tesla but I didn't get it because I didn't want to put gas in the tank that was just a side uh benefit okay and then the last one we're going to look at here today is Disney they reported earnings after the Bell you can see on the weekly chart what's happening okay the stock is now down to a new 52 we low I mean it hasn't seen this level since um since 2014 so we'll look at the daily chart it's not too bad here maybe $88 is going to hold this is what I would tell you about Disney it's it's this is actually a pretty easy analysis to go through okay it's in a downtrend that's it buying these when the stock is close enough to the support line you know has been profitable to buy okay great but not by much because the stock just essentially is like drifted sideways you know you get a nice move there but generally speaking you're buying and I'm just approximating here the stock is kind of drifting sideways maybe you make a little money so here the stock is down once again it's right down at this downtrending support line gunto head I would probably buy some stock tomorrow at around 88 bucks and I'd probably sell it at 89 or 90 the stock is in a downtrend and you have to assume that the downtrend is intact up until the time that it's not and right now the downtrend is still intact if you're selling at the open you'll be selling with everybody else because that's what happens I would be looking to buy the stock only and here's really the trade only if the stock is above the opening print say two three or four minutes in if it's above the opening print then you can buy the stock and only then for a quick trade because again the trend is down you can see it okay um that's it for these three stocks I saw TV I'm Dan Fitzpatrick at stock market Mentor hope you'll check out my website uh the first 30 days of membership is on me
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