저자: DanFitzpatrick · 외국인
요약 보기
이 영상은 2016년 2월 3일 TV에 나온 세 종목(치폴레, 야후, 테슬라)을 짚는 개인 투자 채널 영상이다. 발언자는 종목 추천이라기보다 기술적 분석과 리스크 관리 관점에서 각 종목을 평가한다. 치폴레(CMG): 실적 발표 후 주가가 약세를 보였으나 일봉·주봉상 대량 거래 후 저가 매수세가 유입된 '저점 확인' 모양이라고 본다. 매출 감소(약 14~17%)보다 마진 악화가 더 크다고 지적하면서도, 이 종목이 하락을 끝냈다고 판단한다. 뉴스는 무시하고 차트에 집중하라고 권하며, 430달러 부근 손절선(약 6% 리스크)을 제안한다. 목표 가격으로 46을 언급하지만 확신은 없다고 덧붙인다. 야후(YHOO): 실적이 부진했고 마리사 메이어 CEO의 대응도 실망스러웠다고 평가한다. 본인이라면 매수하지 않으며, 공매도는 유혹적이지만 회사 매각 가능성 때문에 위험하다고 본다. 주봉상 헤드앤숄더 패턴이 형성되는 중이라고 설명하면서, 반등 후 넥라인 재테스트 시 숏 기회가 될 수 있다고 하지만 결국 해당 종목은 피하라는 결론이다. 테슬라(TSLA): 성장주 전반의 인기가 식으면서 기대치가 현실화되는 과정이라고 본다. 장기적으로 주가가 120달러 수준까지 갈 수 있다고 목표를 제시하지만, 그 과정에서 큰 변동성이 있을 것이라고 경고한다. 2~3월 실적 발표를 앞두고 단기 기술적 반등 가능성을 언급하며, 약 173.48~174달러 상향 돌파 시 상승 추세를 따라가고 이후 매도를 고려하라고 말한다. 공통 리스크: 세 종목 모두 손절 기준 설정과 실적 발표일 확인을 강조하며, 발언자는 자신의 의견을 참고용으로 제시할 뿐 투자 권유가 아니라는 입장이다.
다듬은 글
February 3rd look every day we see all kinds of stocks on TV uh commentators talking about what they're doing what they've done what they're going to do and this and that and the other thing so here's what I'm doing I'm going to give you the rest of the story I'm going to give you the stuff that matters on these three stocks that I saw on TV today we're going to be looking at Chipotle Yahoo and Tesla okay Chipotle reported earnings um after the Bell yesterday uh stock was down and it performed okay here's the eoli uh this the eoli symbol here it's like almost the perfect cross okay um the bottom line is this uh the stock has been in a downtrend forever um the company reported I think it was like 14 or 177% decline in sales but their their margins were way worse than that and think think about it the reason is because you know you got a 14 or a 177% decline in traffic you're not going to have a 14 or a 177% decline in margins your costs are fixed so your Revenue goes down your margins are going to you know are going to get crushed the bottom line is this I think this stock is done going down this was a big massive Crescendo climax low right here today the stock traded lower this is call it's like a dragonfly dogee uh where basically what happened is the Beast ate its own tail um the stock trades down right away and then ultimately buyers start coming in like chewing through the decline here so at the end of the day the stock basically closed just about near the high of the day here's my suggestion ignore the news on this stock from now on anything's a speculation this thing could go to 46 okay we don't know this but I'm telling you this when you're looking at the weekly chart this is a major decline a major reversal the stock is holding well above this low I think your risk on this stock is in not owning the stock as opposed to owning it as always have some kind of a stoploss in somewhere I would suggest just maybe below 430 simply as a function of risk management be about 6% so that's my deal on Chipotle now Yahoo okay uh company reported earnings and as most people imagined they sucked um Marissa Meyer was on CNBC this morning I also saw her on Bloomberg um frankly uh if if she wasn't getting paid hundreds of millions of dollars for failing um I'd probably feel sorry for but man she looked tired she looked beat up um she was blinking more than Nancy Pelosi at the State of the Union Address um just not a good showing at all here's the thing with Yahoo like I there's no way I would buy this stock uh I mean the only way I would buy the stock is if I was managing somebody's money who I didn't like very much then I'd go ahead and have them pile into it I'm tempted to short the stock but here's the problem this company I mean they kind of gave every indication look Marissa Meyer God love her and what a great cover shot on Vogue um with the stiletto heels but you know she's into buying and selling stuff for a lot of money whether it's Alibaba remember spinco um and then Tumblr etc etc so don't be surprised I wouldn't be surprised if this company was snapped up by somebody else the reason I'm saying that is because to short this stock just because you like don't like management or something that was what you wanted to do back here or maybe even here now I think frankly this is just a stock that you want to stay away from um on a very kind of a long macro basis this is a this is a head and shoulder pattern let me show you the pattern here I'm so glad I get to do these videos for myself as opposed to um like another internet Outlet where I have to watch time um now I can just Meander and Muse and do whatever I want to do um the bottom line is this this was the trend okay we get a high what I'm describing as a Head and Shoulder reversal pattern we get a high here a little pullback a higher high yay trend is good now we get a lower low relative to this one now we got a lower high this is where the head and shoulder pattern is being put in I mean this is literally right here right now out so if it wasn't for the potential for this company to be sold um or by the way for them to ditch their CEO and get somebody else who like kind of knows what they're doing um and has a vision for the company if it wasn't for that I would say this is really kind of a perfect shorting opportunity any rally up here would be fine any pullback down here and then a throwback to this neckline here would be fine you could do that I would just suggest this just stay away from stay away from the stock because it's it's definitely risky to be short the stock and it's also pretty risky to be long okay Tesla is not TSS okay why is this stock down so much well first of all um growth stocks are really not in Vogue right now this stock looks like it's going here I'll pick a price Target 120 that's my price Target you heard it here first why cuz that's about where the stock bottom here that would be like a complete reversal um analysts are starting to look at this thinking basically that um the sales are not really going to uh translate into the types of earnings estimates that folks have for this company in other words expectations are lofty now suddenly reality is starting to set in and so that's why the company selling off look the Stock's always been expensive and I'm not a I would rather be short the stock than long it I absolutely wouldn't be um long the stock but a member at stock market Mentor asked me today hey what do you think about shorten Tesla buying puts or this or that and my suggestion was look this thing looks like it's going to zero or at least 120 but it is so oversold that you kind of want to wait for some type of a bounce in order to take any action on the stock NOW the company reports earnings I think it's on February 10th or 11th you need to check your uh you need to check that date but this is one where I mean frankly if it keeps going down into earnings you'd almost think the path of least resistance would be higher what I'm telling you right now on this and this is the rest of the story ultimately I think this puppy has a 120 price tag on it but between where it is now and where I think it's going to be there's going to be a whole lot of shaking going on so just get used to the volatility um wait for any rally before you shorted the stock and frankly because of and this is just a technical technical condition a technical setup the stock is down almost 12% in two trading days you know from this last from this close on Monday this is almost due for a snapback for just a short-term Snapback rally so for a trade watch for an upside move I will say above today's close of 17348 1 you know 7350 we'll say I'll say if the stock starts trading above 174 hey take this thing for a ride North and then ultimately look to sell into it okay all right listen that's it for this video I hope this uh these three stocks I saw on TV videos are helpful um if they are let your friends know about them all right Dan Fitzpatrick stock market Mentor I'll see you next time
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