Time to buy Tesla (TSLA)? Here's my take. (Hint: No). (January 13, 2016) - Stock Market Mentor

요약 보기

결론: 테슬라(TSLA)는 차트상 약세로 보이며 200달러 지지선 이탈 시 추가 하락(약 190달러 이하) 가능성이 높다고 본다. 기술적 분석 근거: 테슬라 주가는 높은 고점과 높은 저점을 만들면서 쐐기형(bearish wedge) 패턴을 오랫동안 형성해 왔고, 추세선이 수렴하고 있다. 이 패턴이 하향 이탈하면 최소 목표는 패턴 시작점 즉 약 100달러 부근의 저점을 테스트하는 것이다. 현재 주가는 약 200달러 지지선을 깨고 재테스트 중이다. 시장 상황: 1월 13일 시장은 전반적으로 약했고, S&P500 등 전체 시장이 매우 과매도 상태라 내일 기술적 반등이 나올 수 있다고 봤다. 다른 자동차 제조사들도 부진했다. 실전 전략: 주가가 200달러 아래로 떨어지면 추가로 약 5% 하락해 190달러 이하까지 갈 수 있다. 반면 1~4일 내 210~215달러까지 반등 후 다시 꺾이면 그 지점이 숏 진입 기회라고 제시했다. 2월 10일 실적발표 전에 신고가를 못 만들면 숏이 유효하다고 봤다. 다만 테슬라는 변동성이 커서 리스크가 있다고 언급했다. 펀더멘털 평가: PER 등 밸류에이션이나 증권사 매수 추천은 신뢰하지 않으며 차트가 수익을 결정한다는 입장이다. 출연자의 장기 전망이나 중장기 견해는 언급되지 않았다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. good evening I'm January 13th and this Market was ugly today I want to look at Tesla um in large part because I was looking at the other auto manufacturers and they're all stinking up the joint and I thought hey what's Tesla looking like and this is actually stinking up the joint too here's the thing um company reports earnings next month almost a month away on February 10th this stock will not be at $2.39 on February 10th now might be up at 240 on February 11th who knows or it may be down at 140 but here's the deal the stock has broken through support here and testing 200 bucks but I would be careful about being too bearish on the stock right at this moment in time for the simple fact that the SNP you know the overall Market is really really oversold and we could get a bit of a bounce um tomorrow but make no mistake about it this stock and I think I might have mentioned this quite a while ago but perhaps not um this stock has been forming this bearish wedge for a while higher highs higher lows but the trend lines are converging okay so ultimately you know you'd see them just form a the back assent end of a megaphone um but so typically what happens here is the stock starts to fall out uh starts to fall out the megaphone starts to fall out the wedge and then continues to go and my you know my minimum Target on this type of a pattern is to at least test the low the beginning of this megaphone or wedge pattern so that's what it's doing right here right at a 100 bucks now as I look at this chart I'm I'm pretty bearish on Tesla I don't see anything to be bullish about here and I would have to be some kind of a clueless fundamental analyst to say oh Tesla's a buy right here because the PE is this and that and the other thing not my deal I always see those guys um on CNBC talking about a particular stock saying oh it's a buy and this and that and if you're patient and then I'll look at the stock chart and I'll think like if I buy that I'm going to be somebody's patient um like under intensive care or Critical Care um the bottom line is the charts really are the ones that um that control whether you make money or lose money not a PE or revenues or anything else so what I want you to do on Tesla stand back if the stock starts trading below 200 this could easily fall another 5% down to 190 maybe even lower if the stock first first breaks 200 if it doesn't obviously then it that's not going to happen but we're here at support we're kind of testing support if this stock bounces up a bit let's say over the next day two three 4 days the stock starts rallying back up to 210 215 something like that and then starts rolling over frankly I think that's your short entry so you would be watching the stock for a bounce and then if it fails to move to a new high and it will at least prior to earnings then you can go ahead and short the stock the stock Falls below 200 I think that's a short as well it could be a little more problematic simply because this is Tesla and it tends to be really volatile okay that's it for this uh chart video and members get over to the strategy session um a lot of blood on the streets and we're going to be looking at some of that stuff maybe getting our hands dirty