저자: WarrenBuffett·CharlieMunger · 외국인
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버핏과 멍거는 투자에 정해진 공식은 없으며, 가치와 가격의 괴리, 경쟁력, 경영진 등 여러 요인을 종합해 판단한다고 강조함. 코스트코를 예로 들며 PER 12~13배는 사업 경쟁력 대비 지나치게 낮다고 판단했다고 설명함. 이는 과거 사례 설명이며 특정 종목의 향후 가격 예측은 아님. 정치적 견해와 기업 투자 문제에 대해서는 버크셔가 총회에서 정치 기부를 하지 않으며, 개인 정치 견해를 회사 활동에 투영하지 않는다는 입장을 밝힘. 총기 제조사 보유 등 일부 사업은 수용하되 명백히 부적절한 사업은 피한다고 함. 중국 등 신흥시장 관련 질문에는 1,000억 달러 이하 규모라면 미국 시장에서 더 나은 기회를 찾겠지만, 소규모 자금이라면 한국 등 해외 소형주에서도 저평가 종목을 찾을 수 있다고 답함. 멍거는 중국 주식 비중이 버핏보다 높다고 언급하며 중국 시장에 기회가 많다는 데 동의함. 두 사람 모두 특정 자산의 단기 가격 방향에 대한 예측은 하지 않음. 버크셔의 장기 방향에 대해서는 주주 중심 경영을 유지하겠다고 밝혔으며, 2068년 모습은 알 수 없다고 답함. 멍거는 버크셔 주식을 매도하고 다른 곳에 투자하는 것을 경계하는 발언을 함. 이 영상은 주로 투자 철학과 경영 원칙에 관한 내용으로, 대상 자산(삼성전자, 엔비디아, 금, 비트코인 등)에 대한 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측 발언은 없음.
다듬은 글
hey Warren Charlie thank you again for having us and and having me uh I just can't thank you guys enough and appreciate you guys enough for the body of work that you guys have delivered to us and the Exemplar example that you guys have set with your principles thank you Charlie you mentioned that Charlie you've mentioned that if given the chance or the same chance with a smaller Capital base you would still look for missed price stock opportunities of course uh and that would be determined through obviously what what we call the uh the intrinsic value of the organization or the the company in question an aggregate of the discounted future cash flows would you work the arithmetic using a fictional data set to illustrate the mathematical principia uh to determine an intrinsic value and I hope you include the comprehensive metal mental model of the key metrics considered and equal qualitative assessments of the management and any assumptions of its industry to determine the durability of its earning power uh and Warren uh same same to that effect would you also demonstrate or illustrate a an arithmetic problem set using with a significant Capital base and provide the object lessons on how those have changed from a small to a large Capital base well I can't give you a formulaic approach because I don't use one and I just mix all I just mix all the factors and and if the gap between value and and prices not attractive I go on to something else and sometimes it's just quantitative for instance when Costco was selling at about 12 or 13 times earnings I thought that was a ridiculously low value just because the competitive strength of the business was so great and it was so likely to keep doing better and better but I can't produce that to a formula for you I like the cheap real estate I like the competitive position I liked the way the Personnel system where I I liked everything about it and I thought even though it's three times book or whatever it was then that it's worth more but that's not a formula that anybody if you want a formula you should go back to graduate school they'll give you lots of formulas that won't work this is the longest we've ever gone in the Berkshire meeting without Charlie saying that getting to the point where he prefers Costco to Berkshire Andrew okay Warren this question comes from a Berkshire shareholder says they've been a shelter for 10 years I should say this may be one of the most pointed questions I've ever received for you but you've elected to give it though anyway but but I did the shareholder writes I have watched the movie every year at this meeting when you testify in front of Congress on behalf of Solomon as the symbol of what it means to have a moral compass investors are increasingly looking to invest in companies they're socially and morally responsible so I was Disturbed when you were asked on CNBC about the role that business could play in sensible policies around the sales of guns you said you didn't think business should have a role at all and you wouldn't impose your values on others I was even more surprised when you said you'd be okay with Berkshire owning shares and gun manufacturers at this meeting years ago you said you wouldn't buy a tobacco company because of the social issues the idea that Berkshire would associate with any company as long as it isn't illegal seems at odds with everything I think you stand for please tell us you misspoke well let's let's explore that a little uh should it should it be just my view or should it be the view of the owners of the company so if I decide to poll the owners of the company on a variety of political issues and and one of them being whether you know Berkshire Hathaway should support the NRA I know if a majority of the shareholders voted to do it or if a majority of the board of directors voted to do it I would I wouldn't I wouldn't accept that I don't I don't think that the my political views I don't think I put them in a blind trust at all when I take the job and I in the election of 2016 I raised a lot of money in my case I raised it for Hillary and I spoke out in various ways that were quite Frank but I don't think that I speak when I do that I don't think I'm speaking for Berkshire I'm speaking as a private citizen and I don't think I have any business speaking for Berkshire we have never at the parent company level we have never made a political contribution you know uh I may go and I don't I don't go to our suppliers I don't do anything of that sort where I raise money either for the school I went to or for a political candidate I won't do anything else uh and I don't think that we should have a question uh on the Geico policyhold reform are you an NRA member you know and if you are you just aren't good enough for us or something that I think I I did not I do not believe in imposing my political opinions on the activities of our businesses and if you get to what companies are pure and which ones aren't pure I think it is very difficult to make that call okay I think without response I'm almost afraid to call on Charlie but go ahead foreign well obviously you do draw a limit one yeah we did kinds of things yeah which are beneath us even though they're legal but we don't necessarily draw it perfectly because we've got some sort of supreme knowledge we just do the best we can and certainly we're not going to ban all guns surrounded by wild turkeys in Omaha hi good morning Mr Buffett and Miss Monger my name is Steffi U from Horizon insights a China focused research firm based in Shanghai so I have a lot of mutual fund clients in China who are very young relatively younger and they manage a smaller portion of funds so my question is if you only have one billion dollars in your portfolio today how would you change your Investments would you consider more investment opportunities in Emerging Markets such as China thank you I wouldn't I would say if if I were working with a billion I would probably find within a 30 trillion dollar market in the United States where I understood uh things better just generally than I do around the world I'd probably find and find Opportunities there that would be better incidentally by some margin than what we can find for hundreds of billions uh but I wouldn't there's no way I'd rule a lot of emergency markets there was a time 15 years ago or so uh one just because it was kind of interesting and it took me back to my youth I on a weekend I went through uh a directory of Korean socks and I bought and these were small stocks uh well they were small by the standards of of either Korean or American Business they were big big companies but I found 15 or 20 and that were statistically cheap and bought some of each one myself and and there are there are opportunities with smaller amounts of money to do things that we just can't do and uh but I my first inclination always would be to comb through things in the United States and and but I've gone from in other countries I probably wouldn't get into very very small markets because there can be a lot of difficulties even in Market execution and Taxation a lot of things you can find if you can't find it you know in America and China and Britain and a few other places you probably aren't going to find it someplace else so you may think you'll find it but there may be there may be a different game than you know uh our problem is size not geography Charlie well I I already have more stocks in China than you do and as a percentage so I'm with the young lady okay well you can you want to name names or these stocks have names Carol um this question and I I should just add one thing you will find plenty of opportunities and China Charlie would say you've got a better hunting ground than even a person with similar capital in the United States would you agree yes I do yeah yeah so uh and in a sense there it's logical that should be the case because it's a younger marketers but still a large market so that that uh markets probably work toward efficiency as they age Japan had this very strange situation with warrants being priced out of line and all of that uh 30 years ago and it people notice after a while it disappears but there can be some very strange things happen in in Marcus as they develop I think you'd agree with that Charlie wouldn't you absolutely absolutely yeah Jonathan did I skip I skipped Carol yep oh I'm sorry okay okay um this question and I would concede it is not a small one comes from Gideon Pollock of Montreal he says the world knows generally how the looks of Berkshire Hathaway have changed since you began to run the company in 1965.
Berkshire was in a tiny Northeastern textile company and now it is the number four company on the fortune 500. what about the next 50 years could you give us your view of what Berkshire looks like in 2068. I think it'll look a long way away see no the answer is I don't know and I didn't know 50 years ago what it would look like now I mean it uh it will be based on certain principles but where that leads and I'll admit we will find out and we'll have people that are thinking about different things than I am and will have a world is different men but uh uh we will be I very much hope and believe and we will be that will be a shareholder oriented as any large company in the world we will look at our shareholders as partners and and we will be trying to do with our money exactly what we would do with our own not seeking to get an edge on them and who else who knows what what else will be happening then at uh Charlie well I want to talk to the younger shareholders in the group those of you who after we are gone sell your Berkshire stock and do something else with it helped by your many friends I think are going to do worse so I would advise you to escape the faith well by the way some of that has already happened in many families I'll give his answer next time now let's see if it all the Applause
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