저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
요약 보기
잭슨홀 이후 연준이 관세발 인플레를 일시적으로 보고 금리인하 기조로 전환했다고 평가. 9월 25bp 인하 가능성이 높고 데이터가 약하면 50bp도 가능하며, 9월·11월·12월 연속 인하를 예상. 적정 연방기금금리는 3~3.25%대로 현재보다 1%p 낮다고 봄. 고용은 '해고는 없고 채용도 없는' 대기 국면이며 AI 활용 확대 필요 언급. 연준 독립성은 의회에 종속된 구조라 중요하다고 강조하고, 파월 임기 전 압박 가능성을 언급.
다듬은 글
And our special guest on the final Friday of every month is Jeremy Seagull, Wharton Ammeritis, professor of finance and also a chief economist at Wisdom Tree. Jeremy, great to see you again. How are you, sir? I'm very good, thank you, Jen. Well, as we're doing this, we are post Jacksonhole. Uh, interesting meeting, interesting comments by the Fed chair.
Let me get your general thoughts uh right at the top. Yeah, I mean, I I thought it was a pivot. I thought it was a strong pivot. Uh I I heard words I didn't hear before, which was we can see through the tariffs. I do think tariffs are going to bring some inflation. Uh but not much. Maybe a one to 2% bump, but it's one time.
It's not persistent. Um and he seemed to acknowledge that for the first time setting the stage uh I strongly believe for a cut uh in their September meeting. Now the size of the cut is is is uh under question. I mean at this point 25 basis points but if we get weak data between now and September 17th uh there is a possibility of a larger cut u as as you know and I think I voiced in in my last uh uh broadcast with you that I actually think the appropriate level of Fed funds uh is in the in the low 3s which is a full percentage point below where it is now.
We don't don't have to get there tomorrow, but that should be the goal of the Federal Reserve. But you and I have talked in the past about the the the reaction by the markets to whether or not it's a 25 or 50. And seemingly if there is a 50 basis point cut and we saw 50 basis point increase, you know, during the time uh of the pandemic, uh that there is a harsher reaction by Wall Street when it's 50 compared to 25.
Well, the thing it would be 50, I think, if we'd get negative payrolls and weak data, then you're going to see a reaction to the market and then they'd be disappointed if they didn't go 50. So, in a way, yeah, I if if the data stays strong and they go 50, that that is a little puzzle, that could be troublesome.
If the data is weak and they go 50, then the market will say, "Yeah, you you are responding to the data." So again, I think if the data uh the data are are quite okay. They're it's not real strong. I mean uh we're looking at third quarter looks like around a 2% GDP growth at this particular point. Um uh and you know at that particular growth I think you you get a quarter.
But if if we have any negative payrolls and we certainly did get a shock in payrolls as you know uh last um uh uh last month um uh you know uh you know 50 is would be uh in the cards is is are are multiple cuts the remainder of this year still possible? I would I would anticipate one cut each of the next three meetings September, November, December.
Um uh if if if this one time inflation stays the same and depending on how strong the uh economy goes. uh uh so that it's be at the end of of of uh at the beginning of next year or toward the middle that they're going down towards 3% and 3 and a/4% which I think is probably the correct level of Fed funds uh given given the strength of the economy.
Now, we all have to realize that um the the price increases from tariffs are really not going to be felt until um um the uh the middle of this quarter toward the end of this quarter. They're still selling out of inventory. Firms are still absorbing uh some margin compression. Uh that can't continue forever.
So, we will see that one time point. I think the pivot was a recognition by the Fed that if we see goods inflation go up because of of the tariffs. Um and we don't see inflation um service inflation accelerate which looks does look good because home prices are definitely on the soft side. Uh that we could set ourselves up for for cuts.
Let me circle back to the labor component for a second and you kind of alluded to it there a moment ago that there are some concerns out there about where the labor markets are headed right now uh about the ability of people to get jobs and get back into the labor force when they are cut. How much of a factor does that play into the general thought process or have to play into it by the Fed and the leadership in terms of thinking about about cuts?
Yeah, some people uh sort of talk about this as being the no hire, no fire economy. We're not seeing a lot of firing. Uh not seeing a lot of layoffs. I mean, on the jobless claims, uh you know, they're staying in that uh 200 to 240 range, which is normal, but we're not seeing a lot of hiring. It's sort of a firms are sort of in a wait and see mode.
um you know, how much are the tariffs really going to pass through to discourage consumer spending or not? Um so they're sort of holding their position. Now, if they have to confront rising prices on tariffs and they think that comp competition will force them to keep the prices relatively firm, then they're going to have to contemplate layoffs to cut costs and and more intensively use AI, which uh as you know in some recent reports is not being used as intensively by many firms as they could in order to save on expenses.
Jeremy, let me finish up with the the topic of the independence of the Fed, which obviously is being brought into a lot of question uh here in the last few months with the back and forth between the White House and the Fed leadership and obviously most recently with Lisa Cook. How do you view what we're seeing play out here and give us your thoughts on the importance of the of an independent Fed?
Well, you know, I teach an independent Fed is ex extremely important there. Then again remember the Federal Reserve is a creature of Congress. Um uh it is subject to Congress. All all its powers devolve from Congress. There is no constitutional uh central bank. Uh you know if for instance the the US Senate House of Representatives and Trump and with the Republicans decide to abolish the Fed, that's it.
I mean there's not it doesn't even go to the Supreme Court. So I mean in a way they are beholden to the government. There's always been pressure as one person said, "Yeah, usually I mean Trump just announces the pressure, but there were pressure by other presidents uh through the telephones and not uh not into the public." That's that's sad.
Clearly independent central banks have been shown to have lower inflation uh than those central banks that are not uh totally uh independent. Remember no again with no constitutional guarantee there is no real independence of of that central bank and let me also mention um you know now there's a question of firing people the the pe uh we don't the the the the chair nominees and I think I may have mentioned this last month uh particularly uh Walsh and um Waller are excellent I I mean there's not these are not just psychopantic followers of Trump.
Now they may want to lower interest rates. Well, I want to lower interest rates and I'm not a you know I'm not a Trumpian. So I mean but they are also excellent economists. So in in that particular sense uh you know I think that the feds uh will be managed anyways. It appears now that there doesn't seem to be an imminent announcement.
I think if if if if Powell does not go in September, however, um then I think you're going to get an announcement and a very very high pressure unless you know the the the data definitely supports his move. Jeremy, always great to talk with you. We will uh reach out and talk again next month. Thank you, sir.
Thank you very much, An. You got it. Jeremy Seagull, uh Wharton ameritus professor of finance and chief economist at Wisdomree.
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