저자: 미상 · 외국인
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워런 버핏의 버크셔 해서웨이가 신규 매수한 도미노피자와 Pool Corporation을 분석. 도미노피자는 배당 안전성·ROIC·마진이 우수하고 내재가치 약 $483 대비 현재가 부근으로 5~10% 안전마진만 확보, 월가 목표가 $490(상승여력 11%)이나 진행자는 지금은 매수 매력이 낮다고 봄. Pool Corp은 내재가치 약 $436로 15% 안전마진 수준이며 월가 목표가 $380(상승 4%)로 역시 강한 매수 근거는 없다고 평가.
다듬은 글
for the large part the S&P 500 is in the red and today we want to focus on Warren Buffett and Burkshire Hathaway they have made two new buys that we want to analyze in today's episode now the first one is Domino's Pizza and the second one is pool Corporation and as we can see both of these are in fact a new position in the portfolio well it's also interesting in the previous quarter they did in fact start a new position in ALA Beauty they have now reduced that by 96% just something we do want to flag so we're going to look at each one the first one is Domino's Pizza we'll do a little bit of a deep dive and we'll get to our own valuation towards the end now Domino's Pizza pretty much every single person knows what this company is they in effect sell pizzas now how's it formed over the last 12 months they are up around 16% over the last 10 years they have massively out formed the SNP they are up 300 80% doesn't include dividends reinvested so you would be up marginally high if that's what you had done now right now it is trading in the mid to lower end of the 52 we range although we do get that Warren Buffett pop up around 2% today and we see a double buyer rating Seeking Alpha Wall Street with Quant giving it that typical hold we also note in terms of the forward Peak at 26 dpz isn't that far off of the S&P 500 and we can see it does pay dividend at a 1.4% yield now how have they performed in terms of earnings well first thing out of the next four quarters they're expecting three of them to be positive and we do love to see this in terms of management and their forecasting accuracy 100% they've beaten the previous four quarters which gives us Faith their next full annual accounts earnings per share estimated 17.65 lowering ultimately the forward P to 24.71 now in terms of this company what we can in fact see the dividend safety does sit at 55 borderline safe we have an undervaluation we'll come to that on dividend yield with when we take a look this does look like an undervaluation but we can see here saying something different we'll discuss that and they've increased their dividend this year at 25% in February now reaffirmed that the safety of the dividend is boardline October so just a few weeks ago what this ultimately means moderate risk of a dividend cup over a full economic cycle now key metrics from the last recession 0709 no dividend so no comparative data above average growth 5% S&P -12 did Trail the S&P though -66 the S&P itself - 55 now this is absolutely gorgeous 25% increase in 24 177% on average over the last five and 20% on average increases to the dividend year on year over the last 10 years and they've been increasing those dividends as we can see consecutively for the last 10 now when we take a look at the p ratio over the last year so we will zoom in we can in fact see only since around August we get that severe undervaluation signal it's below the blue tunnel which is the expected price and the lower end would dictate to us undervaluation what we notice right now it is towards outside the box SL slightly in so that is what we would say is an undervaluation signal but we'll come to our own valuation in the model shortly towards the end we then look at dividend yield Theory which verage 1.36 above 1.12 that is an undervaluation signal the second undervaluation signal here forward P 26 lower than the 5year rolling of 28.6 however one thing we do know Domino's does trade significantly higher than consumer discretionary as a sector at 14.7 so you are paying a premium is it worth it for this company and how much of a margin of safety do we need something we will get to as well now free cash flip out as always free cash flow over below 50% for restaurants below that every single year no surprises then while we do get that lovely increase to the dividend 35% in 2023 there are there abouts over the next 12 months no surprises then we should be expecting in February 25 and another strong dividend growth increase we then look at the free cash flow per share where we want consistent increases over long term 223 more than 10 times growth into 2023 and expected to increase over the next one months so actually it does look very very good historically as well as expectations into the future then we get sales growth now 3 to 7% in fact 3 to four at the bare minimum to keep up in line with inflation looks pretty strong however over the last year netive 1% so there was a drop nice to see on a training 12 month at the 4% level so at the bare minimum keeping up in line with inflation of which when we do look at it in a numerical format more than doubled their top line from 2014 to 2023 and on top of that not only double digigit increases to the dividend they've returned excess cash to shareholder Pockets through those share Buybacks 56.9 in 2014 35.1 on a trading 12 month so this is a very good sign shareholders will love to see this you're getting basically a double- digit increase alongside the company giving you more control as they are buying back a significant number of shares on a fairly consistent basis roic we want double digit essentially 10% at the bare minimum 12% for this industry specific give us Faith mandre bsolutely phenomenal probably something you wouldn't assume with the restaurant industry 60 to 70% Over The Last 5 Years 70% on a tradeing 12 month absolutely phenomenal then we move on to the margins where we don't get efficiency remember we want to see this increasing they that a bare minimum above 16% and very consistent same to be said for the free cash flow so overall Domino's Pizza margins looking very tasty then we move on to the net debt to ebit Dart reason now why we do get that dividend safety score at boardline is because of this metric which correlates to both dividend safety as well as balance sheet strength now remember ebit Dar reference ortization below 3.5 is what we want for the industry and the number below of the number of years it would take dominoes to pay off all of their debt net of cash on hand consistently very very high above 3.5 positive to take from 5.6 in 2022 it has come down to 4.85 on the trading 12 month and we can see expectations over the next four months for this pattern to continue so yes it is above let's hope management can continue to pay off that debt in turn helping with that dividend safe we then jump into the valuation model as always we will do them for all the companies we look at today and now the intrinsic value $483 is just the average of these three models and we'll jump into the first one which is the multiples valuation we have companies in a similar sector and size their average PE multiplied by the EPS to give us our first intrinsic value which isn't far off the market price but as it is in fact lower we get that overvaluation signal just remember we're not looking any one of these models in isolation we then have the dividend discount model with the average growth 18.5% over the last few years and we have gone a lot more conservative at 6.75 giving us our first undervaluation signal we then move on to the DCF model where we have the free cash flow year on-ear the average growth at 19% we've got a lot more conserv ative than analyst targets and management as well our second undervaluation signal which in term the average comes to $483 now remember essentially Domino's Pizza or any others that you do desire remember we always like to look at a 10% margin of safety at the bare minimum for each company and we now if you believe that in today's episode then you would be a buy at around $435 it hasn't hit that yet so we don't quite see a 10% MOS right now though if you are buying this company we would say around a 5 to 10% level with Wall Street their Target price $490 over the next year indicating 11% upside so we would say Domino's Pizza 5 to 10% MOS with Wall Street indicating 11% over the next year in our opinion it doesn't look to be a buy now but as always give us your thoughts whether you see this as a buy hold or sell and remember these could be some quick trades that essentially Warren Buffett or in fact the management team are doing as we saw they bought Ulta beauty and they pretty much sold out of all of it over the following quarter e drop one every single Monday morning to your inbox read straight away you'll also be able to gain access to 40 undervalued stocks for the month of Nov copy of right now next Company Warren Buffett did add was po Corporation now for those that don't know they have got here on their first web page in fact that they are the world's leading distributor of swimming pool supplies equipment and related Outdoor Products so we would pretty much say this is a fairly seasonal and potentially cyclical business so in terms of the actual company well they are up around 2% on the announcement that Warren Buffett has added this to the Burkshire portfolio now over the last 12 months it's up around 4% over the last 10 years massively outperform the S&P up 524 although we can see it hasn't quite got back to the all-time highs around 3 years ago at $572 now it's trading in the midpoint of the 52e range Seeking Alpha believe this is a sell W Street believe this is a buy Quant believe this is a hold so a bit of a traffic light system here forward PE very very high at 32 forward yield around 1.34% and when we take a look at their earnings we can see out of the next four they are expecting two of them to be negative but they do have 100% historical forecasting accuracy although in fact performing much better than what they anticipated and they are also expecting increase into December 2025 lowering the forward PE although marginally to around 29.74 in terms of dividend safety well a score of 69 safe under valuation on the yield reasonable on this model that we'll run through and they increase the dividend at a high single digit rate 99.1% in May this year so in terms of the last recession they maintained the dividend didn't increase didn't cut had about average growth while also pretty much a near SNP return similar to Domino's Pizza very attractive dividend growth 19% on average over the last 10 years and we can in fact see they've been increasing those dividends for the last 13 years on a consecutive basis so in terms of this forward P valuation model we can see over the last 12 months maybe one of the first companies we looked at on this channel where it is pretty much around the blue expected price for the whole year and we see right now pretty much in the Middle Point indicating reasonable valuation when we look at dividend yield Theory well the yield is above so under valuation and the forward P not far off the 5year so another reasonable signal like the one we saw above although it is massively massively higher than consumer discretionary sector at 14.7 in terms of the free cash flp out well below 60% for the majority of the last 10 years 20% in 23 45 over the next 12 months so no worries there whatsoever and we do also notice growth on the free cash flow maybe inconsistent in the nature but also we have to point out expected a pretty much half over the next 12 months to $180 terms of sales growth actually looking very strong on a consistent basis but in 2020 3 a big drop of 10% with the following trailing 12 month here showing us a negative 5% so we may also see 2024 a back-to-back year where the Top Line does start to slow down and we can see over the last 10 years pretty much doubled their top line revenue they also similar to Domino's Pizza do share BuyBacks although with dpz we did see this at a lot more aggressive rate in terms of buying those back then in terms of the roic very very strong in fact again similar to dpz this is very good good to note in the mid-30s year on-ear dropping to around 27% in 2023 investors will love to see this and we get a little bit sign here of operating efficiency 8% in 2014 13 in 2023 but only the last few years have we seen it around that minimum level that we want at the 12% point in terms of free cash flow pretty much consistently straddling around the 5% although 2023 did look particularly strong at 15 we then move on to the net day to e bit D below three so unlike essentially dpz this one does look to be good 1.4 1.41 on a trading 12 month and 1.39 so no worries we did see that safe diven score and the balance sheet based on this information does look to be good so let's jump into the valuation of Po Corporation and in today's episode we have the two models the DCF and the dividend discount and we can see the average at 436 indicating when we do run it through the MOs we at least get a 10% something we didn't see earlier on at the 15% Point pretty much around the current price now not at the 20% level yet so if you're buying pool Corporation as always though don't follow other investors even the great Warren Buffett always do your own due diligence always have your own investment thesis we can see a 15% MOS with Wall Street indicating only 4% upside price target of $380 now none of these companies are one that I do believe are great opportunities right now but it always interesting to see what super investors do buy and sell in fact fact we did release an episode earlier on today where we looked at some of the stocks that they did sell but I would like to hear your thoughts whether or not you do believe there is some strong compelling reason to consider both Domino's and pool Corporation in the portfolio as always if you enjoyed below
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