저자: KimForest · 외국인
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AI 수요는 여전히 강하지만 AI 투자 회수(누가 돈을 낼지)에 대한 신중론 제기. 엔비디아는 모멘텀 투자자 의존 및 브로드컴 등 추론 엔진 경쟁 위험 언급. 마이크론은 PC·스마트폰 수요 둔화로 향후 몇 분기 매출 감소 전망이나 과점 구조와 HBM·AI 메모리 수요 확대로 장기적으로 긍정적. 메모리 증설은 시간이 걸리고 수요가 관건.
다듬은 글
now it's time to bring in our next guest that's going to be Kim Forest founder and chief investment officer at boka Capital Partners welcome to the show Kim happy morning yeah good morning uh thank you for joining us early I think you're on the west coast there but Kim when you take a look at uh the overall Tech space we've had a nice big rally in there besides the pullback yesterday A lot of people piling into mag s what's your take here in the tech sector because I know that's what you focus on most sure well um well I focus on it because I used to be a software engineer so it's kind of easy peasy for me um AI is still winning the promise of AI is driving investors to try to find a way to monetize that and I think that's correct for the long term but I feel like we're coming up to a point where you have to ask yourself who was going to pay for this AI that people are spending literally hundreds of billions of dollars in aggate developing right and uh I I think you have to be cautious at this point piling into things that have worked so far um just a note of caution but I do think AI is here to stay and will be a tool in not only the consumer belt to help them figure out ridiculous things like what to make for dinner but also for companies to make their people more um productive yeah Kim when you look at this and we've seen some winners on the software as side recently whether it's CRM a service now paler doing really well in that space are there any names out there that you like more than others because that pullback you know 15% pullback that we saw in Nvidia was pretty substantial and uh you know that's the picks and shovels of this industry right well Nvidia has a little problem called broadcom at this point Nvidia has been driven by momentum investors and momentum investors are this small pool of people that don't really care what the underlying reason is for a stock to go higher they just know I'm going to hop on this train cuz it's going to go higher and I think the really positive comments from broadcom about their offerings that I don't think they compete necessarily directly with um Nvidia but they do compete for the dollars coming out of the people building AI um so there there might be a shift in the Builders of AI uh towards this inference engine away from what Nvidia does so that's I I'm usually like super optimistic but I'm giving you notes of caution but what do I really like this is going to be crazy because it's going to get clubbed today it's going to get killed today is Micron okay so what I know about computers and software is everybody needs more data everybody creates more data and it has to live somewhere and makers of nand devices that's n n d is the nonvolatile like it doesn't need electricity to keep your data active um and it's replacing spinning discs which is what used to um house tons of data and still does to some extent um we like Micron and um it might give you a good entry point today and in the near future because in spite of pretty good results for this quarter that it reported last night it's saying that it's Sal of um to PC makers and phone makers are going to be down and about half of their revenue comes from that uh and it's going to be down for the next couple of quarters so you have an entry point here but there are few makers of the the products that um Micron makes so it's an oligopoly and uh it looks like they're a better behaved oligopoly than they have been in the past yeah and this is part of the problem uh Kim where they still get 50% of their revenue from those Legacy Tech things uh like smartphones uh and such when you look at this one the high B bandwidth memory how much more memory does this AI applications take compared to what we used to see as far as memory because I think that's one of the things that a lot of investors and Traders Overlook is the fact that the amount of memory that you're going to need moving forward as AI gets built out is going to be exponentially higher than what we used to see exactly EX you were saying that correctly and not only does it is it the stuff that they're going to work on and it needs to live somewhere but the actual servers need to have more memory because of the throughput of you know the the data that they're acting on so this is really I don't want to say logarithmic yeah I do want to say logarithmic this is a a real change in how this memory has been used and I think that um we're going to figure this out over the next couple of years and if you can um take the volatility of a name like Micron I think you can be uh rewarded in the future yeah when you take a look at this uh you know they got some money from the chip sacks uh they're going to build out some uh new plants is that going to be a creative to them in the near term or is it going to take a long time to get that writed because you know if you look at the memory sector and I kind of been following and also as a Trader is that this is a really cyclical type of industry or component within the chip space so how long is this buildout going to take and uh you know is this just going to be a blip on the uh radar as far as you know next quarter is going to be weak or is this going to you know go into the uh M middle of 2025 sure well I think um the company has said it's going to go into the middle of 2025 and what they're really looking at is demand not necessarily um what they can add in capacity and I think novices or even people that think they know the tech industry have to really realize that it takes a very very long time to add capacity because you're making new buildings you can't these all semis which you know nand and dram are subsets of that they they operate in clean rooms it's not like you can just throw Machinery in you know this isn't like a steel process C where you can bring up a line next to an active line right processing steel cuz it's all dirty what do you care um so there it's it's really difficult and takes a long time to add capacity what has happened in the past is the handful of companies I think there's six or seven companies that um make these products would all add capacity at the same time and that would depress the the price of their products and I don't know if we'll have that as much going forward they do seem to I wouldn't say at all collude but they're watching what each other are bringing on in capacity pretty closely and they're trying to Pace themselves so that will should amarate a little bit of the wildest swings we've seen in the past it's really a matter of demand now and that's always tough to um to monitor uh but I do think if you have a longer term vision and God bless you that you're a Trader I am a buy and holder right um I always think something surprising good can happen as well as something bad can happen so that's why I want to hang on to this stock during bad times is you know any sometimes good things happen and surprise uh people that are banking on a two quter you know pause you never know yep and uh patience might be uh the term here uh a little bit of volatility uh thrown in there but you like Micron post earnings all right great discussion Kim have a great day you too all right that's Kim Forest founder and chief investment officer at bokeh Capital breaking down Tech and those Micron earnings
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