저자: TomLee · 외국인
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연준 비둘기 기대와 엔비디아 실적·재무부 조치로 불확실성이 줄어 증시 랠리 중. 대기 현금(약 7조달러)이 주식으로 유입될 여지가 크고 경제 회복력이 주식 강세 근거. 인플레 기대는 안정적이나 관세 등 정책 리스크 존재. 소형주·경기민감주·금융·비트코인 선호.
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uh which is why we're rallying right yeah although making a pretty good yield I imagine what's the impetus to leave those Sidelines if uh if rates can hold these levels overall well I I think one thing we have to keep in mind is There's 7 trillion of cash on the sidelines which I think in general portfolios are overweighted and risk-free and I don't know if it's going to be uh 5% 2 years from now so I think investors as they're planning ahead and and they're seeing an economy that's resilient I think the case for equities is still very strong right now what is your have you done any work on earnings for next year or the year after uh we're we're actually working on it now our Outlook comes out December 12th Tom Lee head of research at fundstrat discusses recent Market drivers including nvidia's earnings and treasury actions which have reduced uncertainties and fueled a market rally he attributes this to significant cash reserves waiting to enter the market and highlights the strong case for equities given the economy's resilience Lee advises investing in sectors benefiting from a doish fed or progrowth policies such as small caps cyclicals and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin he also notes that inflation expectations remain stable though future policy risks depend on factors like tariffs and global economic Trends despite concerns Lee remains optimistic about Market adaptability supported by favorable policy directions and potential surprises in economic strategies you do right about some uh clearing events that we've gotten through right is clearly best into Treasury and then nvidia's earnings too kind of remov some uncertainty yes and and we can tell the market was sort of holding their breath on both because once Nvidia reported the markets began to levitate and of course we're seeing the market reaction today to treasury secretary um these are all both good events but also showing you there's been a lot of cash on the sidelines joining us right now to talk about it is Ray Wong constellation research founder chairman and principal analyst hi Ray how are you hey good morning so did the decline in the stock price make sense to you is this just a case where Nvidia can beat expectations but they're going to it's almost impossible to beat the the highest whisper numbers on the street ever there are just such high expectations built into the stock every time this is not a big sell off it's down by less than 1% Becky you're absolutely right I think people were taking money off the table it was more than a mic drop moment it was a spike the ball in the end zone performance but the problem was everyone's saying hey what's going on right should we take some money off the table and come back and I think that's really what happened I mean these were some big numbers right 19.83% five billion in guidance that's huge yeah it's hard to find um many flaws or faults at all with the numbers that came through it does remind me of last quarter when they beat expectations again the stock was down immediately after the earnings but then it went on to grow something like 17% over the course of the last three months since then what you've still got a buy on this you're you're looking at I think $180 price Target stocks at 144 today I am and here's why when we look at the mag 7 they're basically growing exponentially versus the rest of the Fortune 500 so seven stocks are basically growing really quickly and Nvidia is basically selling to six of the seven of the mag 7 and it's a huge number it's about 50 billion a quarter in which these mag seven are spending in terms of data center growth and so that's really what's driving the majority of nvidia's Revenue in the data center side so that growth from 3.8 billion to 30.8 billion in two years is huge right gaming doesn't even come close gaming was up at three billion and so what we're seeing right now still a massive build out on data centers that's going to happen for the next 12 to 18 months and that's what's driving it and then after that we're going to see something different which is in The Sovereign AI countries are going to say hey our companies can't catch up and we've got to invest at a country level yeah I I've heard people knock Nvidia because it's really just these these big compan companies like the metas and the Amazon that are buying all the chips right now but that's because they're first in line nobody else can get through to them I when you hear about the demand um that Nvidia will discuss Jensen Wang will discuss on the conference call um it's hard to look at the supply versus demand as a as a problem it just means far more people want these chips than they can possibly produce at this point what if you were looking for a hole to poke because most the holes that I've heard people try and poke in this argument don't make sense to me what's the best argument you can think of for why you might be concerned about the stock the only reason I'd be concerned about the stock is living in the valley what we're seeing is a ton of people at Nvidia retire they put in their 5 years they put in their 10 years they're leaving they're cashing out they're doing something with their lives and it's really the talent that's going to be hard to beat given that stock runup uh the other piece is really blackw to ruin when it happens in 2026 the question is you know same questions people are going to ask you know are the chips going to be hot are they going to work uh I think that's where people are worried about but right now these chips are two and a half times faster and of course they cost 2x as much and people are willing to make that bet there were those concerns in the last week or so about the chips overheating the black oil chips overheating when put in some of these server arrays I I've read other reports that people are speculating is already been corrected what do you think um from our conversations with people over there it has been correct Ed and I think the other piece that's happening is this is really complicated uh not a lot of companies have ever done this before and I think they've tried all different possibilities and combinations and I think they figured out a couple Solutions and that's what we heard uh and and this shift is actually important because if you think about what is next right it's going to get even smaller and it's going to get even hotter uh and as you know the consumption and the power consumption on these chips hopefully come down but people keep stacking more chips in one place which is why they get really hot in the data centers time for the final trade Tim Seymour another one of the reasons why I love the money center Banks but particularly City Bank is this whole Doge concept I mean I think the efficiency that's going on at City Bank has been well going on for a couple of years and I think that's a big big driver for profitability at Money Center Banks especially I like City Caren yes so I'm looking at the Nvidia callar which is what I talked about earlier the calls are much more pumped than the CPS so put those on tomorrow as well as today did you forget for a split second your final trade you tell I was thinking about B cuz I like City bank and then I'm like okay I won't say anything about City Bank I'll just talk about in video uh Laura calvina um we'll go with the financials it's been a long time coming so let's enjoy this one while it lasts great to have you on the desk yeah Steve Gro is it true we're going to have Optimus in studio Traer really I mean at some point yeah I mean I don't expect we'll have jobs Al imune this is one that got damaged from the RFK trade I'm still in all right so we'll check back with you then yeah um meanwhile what what sectors are you do you favor at this point well I you know I think the template that we think makes sense is buy things that either benefit from a doish fed or a trump White House which is small caps um cyclicals like the financials the regional Banks and Industrials and of course crypto um especially Bitcoin and some of the proxies like micro strategy and stemar scientific did you hear what we were just talking about can the Trump Administration get away with the progrowth policies and a doish Fed at the same time because some of them work against the FED being able to cut rates uh yeah I mean I I'd say the market is very skeptical at the moment that's what what we're hear hearing from our clients but that also means that's that's room for positive surprise and I think one thing to be mindful of is the Fed can be dovish even if there's resilient growth as long as inflationary pressures and expectations remain intact and so far that's been the case has it though we're seeing a little bit firmer core core readings on inflation and guess it depends on what he does with tariffs yeah but if you look at uh survey expectations whether the Federal Reserve survey or um Mish we're seeing five even six-year lows on inflation expectations so we're back to pre pandemic levels from what consumers see and then if oil Falls as you know that sort of pushes down the inflation forward curve on the one-year expectations right fives have not been as well behaved that's right and you know uh those surveys are notoriously uh a little funky because if you look at the range of answers and the actual data some people put th% as the survey answers so they they can tend to skew the actual medians right meantime there is this school of thought that Commodities are not suggesting rampant inflation or return to a double top CPI you got Europe increasingly exporting disinflationary narratives certainly China yes that's right and I think there are many people who thought inflation would pick up because of tariffs but as you know it it it's not clear really what what ends up being implemented and if we if we get milder tariffs that's actually less inflationary pressures page one of the times over the weekend was about companies elbowing each other to get in front of the president-elect to make their case to be carved out of tariffs yes and then this morning Reuters has a piece on the farm industry again looking to be Exempted from a deportation are efforts how much policy risk do you think is going to be in embedded in the next year at least well I think this is what investors are concerned about because we know that there was a campaign that was run on tariffs and deportations but as you know those can be very harmful to the economy so I think that having the right cabinet pics can actually get us into sort of the right blend of sort of outcomes and I I think that's what the Market's starting to price in meaning you've been you've been impressed with the picks so far yes I think not only have I been impressed but we can tell from our from our client feedback that the markets really like this Tom Lee highlights reduced Market uncertainties with nvidia's strong earnings and treasury actions boosting investor confidence and driving a rally he sees opportunities and equities especially in small caps financials and cryptocurrencies supported by a resilient economy and stable inflation expectations while acknowledging policy risks like tariffs Lee believes they may bring positive surprises He suggests investors focus on sectors benefiting from favorable policies and economic Trends how do you see cash reserves influencing market growth which sectors do you expect to benefit most from current market conditions
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