⚠️ WARNING: Jim Cramer Made a HUGE Mistake on ARK Invest

요약 보기

캐시 우드의 ARK 펀드에 대한 자금 유출입 논쟁을 다룬 영상이다. 결론: 짐 크레이머가 ARK 펀드 폐쇄를 언급했으나 ETF는 폐쇄가 불가능하며, 자금 흐름이 아닌 캐시 우드의 운용 결정(비중 조절)이 핵심이라는 주장이다. 크레이머 논쟁: 크레이머는 ARK 펀드를 닫아야 한다고 주장했고, 캐시 우드는 자신은 뮤추얼펀드가 아니며 ETF는 폐쇄할 수 없다고 반박했다. 자금 흐름 설명: 2분기 초 ARK 운용자산은 약 470억 달러였고 현재 약 500억 달러로 회복했다. 3월 유입은 7억 8,100만 달러였다. 펀드별 변화: RK(혁신 펀드)는 약 12% 증가, ARKG는 약 4% 증가, ARKW는 약 6.5% 감소, ARKF는 약 1.5% 증가, ARKQ는 약 7% 감소, ARKX는 80% 이상 증가했다. 주요 매매: 바이두(BIDU)를 전량 매도(약 7억 5,000만 달러)했다. 코인베이스(COIN), UiPath(PATH), 드래프트킹스(DKNG), 스킬즈(SKLZ)는 대규모 매수했다. 종목 방향: 테슬라, 텔라닥, 로쿠 등 상위 보유 종목 비중이 조정되었다. 유전체(ARKG) 종목은 비중이 줄고 웹기술 종목 비중이 늘었다. 향후 분석 예정: 팔란티어(PLTR), 트위터(TWTR), 유니티(U), 트윌리오(TWLO), 쇼피파이(SHOP), 로쿠(ROKU)가 다음 심층 분석 후보로 제시되었다. 출연자 전망: 영상 자체가 개별 자산 가격 방향에 대한 예측 발언을 담고 있지 않아 대상 자산 예측은 없다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. it seems pretty clear that the ark invest phenomena is no longer in play you were betting against kathy wood with a bazooka the bulls here have a lot less firepower because kathy wood no longer has a bazooka maybe if this group keeps climbing kathy wood can get her bazooka back the ear of kathy wood propping these stocks up with her own buying bazooka i think it appears to be over if you're wondering what the heck you just listened to it was actually jim cramer's recap of arkhan vest's year so far want to know what he means when he's talking about kathy woods bazooka you're in the right place fire my video bazooka get right into it you may not know this about me but i spend a lot of time looking at arkan best daily trading data as well as kathy woods interviews for context oh you you knew that about me well a lot of arkhanves interviews take place on cnbc and as a result they tend to have a lot of commentary on her funds sometimes it's really solid other times it's a little shallow or pressed for time and then there's this ripple effects potentially out of arc but they say we think they can manage their cash flow and use the liquidity of some of its large cap positions uh to mitigate any impact from those flows remember kathy would close your fund close it listen to what the late jack bogle would say close concentrate on performance not on trying to deploy capital it's okay it's no sin it's what the great ones do peter lynch did it i mean you just close it when i first saw that clip i was actually pretty worried why would ark invest close their funds could they really even do that jim cramer wasn't the only person saying this either maybe we should stop allowing more inflows and close the etfs close the funds rather than launching more etfs raising limits uh buying your own etfs within your own etfs and whether that was a question you at least asked yourselves over the over this massive inflows well uh well it's not possible to close an etf unlike a mutual fund so that that's not impossible though i mean you can you can change the rules of the game somewhat if there's one thing i've learned from the whole gamestop robin hood thing it's that investors love it when you change the rules that aside the thing these two clips have in common is that they're talking about closing arcs funds due to flows that's the crazy amounts of money that flowed into arcs funds when investors bought them last quarter as well as the money that flowed out of arks funds when investors sold this past quarter on paper it probably sounds reasonable to suggest closing the funds that way kathy wood can focus on fixing the damage instead of worrying about taking in new money i say on paper because that's not actually what's happening with arc invest's funds here's kathy wood herself explaining this misunderstanding on episode 9 of benzing's razz report late last quarter and have you respond to it remember kathy would close your fund close it listen to what the late jack bogle would say close it okay now i should just shut up and let you take over your response well uh he's talking about the etfs it is not possible to to close an etf it's just not possible uh so i'm i'm i think he's referring to the mutual fund industry and that's not what we are uh but i think the other mistake that um that that commentators are making uh is that they they don't understand that i have nothing to do with the flows in other words the etf ecosystem outside of arc the market makers the authorized participants they are creating and redeeming baskets of stock which are the stocks we're invested in but i am not seeing i'm not having to invest those flows or raise money to satisfy redemptions at all i am investing do pure and simple i am making investment decisions i am not dealing with flows this is such a luxury in a volatile market to be able to focus only on the investing side and not to be forced to do anything because it flows one way or the other okay so kathy wood directly responded to jim cramer letting him know that she doesn't run a mutual fund and closing an etf isn't something that you can actually do and because of the way etfs work kathy wood is only responsible for adjusting the weights inside her funds those are the investment decisions she's talking about and the ones we cover on this channel in my opinion that's a good thing because paying a fund manager to go out and try to raise capital instead of investing is like paying an elected official to raise money for re-election instead of governing hey wait so jim did what any normal person does when they make an honest mistake he apologized for the confusion and went back to i'm just kidding he totally doubled down and this is how we get back to kathy woods bazooka thanks to your incredible performance woods funds were obviously flooded with money last year it's something we talked about five months ago how all this cash coming in gave her a ton of fire power if you tried to bet against the hyper growth stocks you were betting against kathy wood with a bazooka now ever since what we highlighted the arc invest phenomenon in january we've been watching the fun flows here in tedious detail once march rolled around kathy wood's favorite stocks were getting clocked but our funds still brought in new money albeit a lot less than february ark's total inflows in march came into 781 million that's a lot of money it was a real battleground arc had heavy inflows early in the month followed by severe outflows in the last couple of weeks now last month though it feels like investors they threw in the towel so virtue is looking a little less ugly there's been some improvement but not enough to offset the earlier damage remember as wood is always quick to point out always always always she does not run a mutual fund she herself is not suffering from redemptions i repeat she is not suffering from redemptions however these inflows and outflows still matter to her performance here's the bottom line when you look at the funds flows arc invests no longer popping up the turbocharged growth stocks which makes the recent rebound feel a lot more significant to me maybe if this group keeps climbing kathleen wood can get her bazooka back but until then the woodstocks will rise or fall on their own the thing is arc's inflows are nothing compared to kathy wood's actual bazooka which is the buys and sells she makes in those funds jim cramer and the other commentators at cnbc are making the same grave mistake let me prove it to you right now imagine kathy wood did close her funds no one can buy new shares that would mean her fun flows are now zero kathy wood now only manages the funds for her existing shareholders the world keeps moving news keeps coming out the share prices inside the funds are still moving up and down and kathy wood is making investment decisions by rebalancing the funds accordingly here's the thing rk is actually the biggest actively managed fund in the world at over 25 billion dollars in assets under management so what happens when she ups the weight of a stock by 0.1 percent of the fund she just executed a 25 million dollar buy what happens when she moves a position down by 0.1 percent of the fund a 25 million dollar sell reducing a stock's weight in rk by a full percent means a quarter billion dollar sell in a single trading day in the first half of may kathy woods sold baidu ticker symbol b-i-d-u completely out of rk at the time baidu was just over 3 percent of rk or about 750 million dollars she took her bazooka and reduced the position to zero that means the fund would have had to have over 25 billion dollars in outflows to do that same kind of damage to baidu only in flows here's where i think the flows definitely start to matter for the highest weight stocks in rk specifically because it's such a massive fund and for the smallest of the micro cap companies arc holds because tiny inflows to arc are still massive inflows to them just to be clear the micro caps tend to be the smaller positions in the funds so their price action isn't exactly moving mountains here it's easy to get distracted when cnbc keeps putting focus on numbers that don't matter so let's focus on the ones that do at the start of the quarter arc invest had a little under 47 billion dollars in assets under management today they have a little under 50 billion dollars in aum a more than full recovery from investors throwing in the towel in early may as jim cramer pointed out however the reason to actually look at individual fund flows or changes in aum is so we know which buys and sells in each fund are due to investors buying and selling shares of the fund versus the buys and sells that reflect the investment decisions kathy wood is making think about that we're actually trying to remove the fun flows from the story here's how the assets under management changed for each fund over the quarter rk archives flagship innovation fund started the quarter at 22.8 billion dollars in assets under management and is ending it at around 25 and a half billion dollars a positive 12 percent change over the quarter that means cathy wood's rk bazooka is about 12 percent bigger arcgi the genomics fund is ending the quarter up almost four percent in assets under management arc w the advanced web technology fund is down around six and a half percent in aum that means the arc w bazooka is currently less powerful arc f the fintech fund is up one and a half percent in assets under management rq the autonomous revolution fund down a little under seven percent and arc x the space exploration fund grew by more than eighty percent because it just launched at the start of the quarter again and again think about how much bigger that makes the purchases made inside arc x now to move a position by the same amount of weight and of course arc invests total assets under management moved from under 47 billion dollars to just a little under 50 billion which is a six percent increase here are arc invests top holdings when you combine their six actively managed funds each row is one stock and each row is colored so that positions that grew by more than six percent are in green and those that grew by less than six percent are in red meaning the rows are colored based on how big these buys and cells are after removing the ones due to flows so tesla is rank one since its arc invests biggest position with 3.4 billion dollars in it teledoc is ranked two with 2.5 billion dollars in it roku moved up one rank over the quarter from rank four to rank three and arkhamvest now holds 27 percent more money in roku than they did at the start of the quarter that's why this rose green even though arc invest sold over six percent of their shares likewise square moved down one rank from third to fourth after cathy would sold over a quarter of her total shares probably around square's crazy mid-quarter price action remember these funds are actively managed so an increase in position because a stock rallied and kathy wood choosing not to sell is the same thing as a buy because both of those moves have the same effect on the weight of ark's holdings here are the stocks that kathy wood took the biggest shots at with her buying bazooka over the past quarter coinbase ticker symbol c-o-i-n whose row is in white because it ipo'd on april 14th so it wasn't in any funds at the start of the quarter but is now 2.5 percent of all of ark's funds combined they have over one and a quarter billion dollars in it uipath ticker symbol p-a-t-h which ipo'd on april 21st just one week after coinbase and is now 1.5 of all of our funds combined with 720 million dollars in it draftkings ticker symbol dkng after kathy would almost tripled the number of shares arc invest holds in it draftkings is around 1.3 percent of all of ark's actively managed dollars and skills ticker symbol sklz after she almost quadrupled the number of shares at half a billion dollars skills now makes up one percent of all of ark's actively managed funds if you've been following this channel for a bit you'll notice that i made episodes dedicated to each of those four stocks over the last few weeks now you know why i chose to make them they're the stocks the arc invested bought the most of when all of their stocks were falling all jokes aside said another way they're the stocks that kathy would fired her money bazooka at when she had very limited ammo these were her highest conviction shots i'll leave a link to my full playlist of deep dives into arkhan invest's biggest movers i'd have to scroll pretty far down this list to find another position that doubled over the quarter and by then the positions get pretty small the nice thing about using data to guide my investment ideas instead of my gut feelings is that everything becomes really predictable guess which companies are on my shortlist for future deep dives palantir ticker symbol pltr twitter ticker symbol twtr unity software ticker symbol u which i'll obviously have to prepare a lot of bad puns for twilio ticker symbol t-w-l-o shopify ticker symbol s-h-o-p and roku r-o-k-u comment below or tweet me at ticker symbol u with which deep dives you want to see first these are all great companies and i'm excited to dig into them one pattern i'd like to draw your attention to is that many of the greenest rows are advanced web technology companies and many of the reddest rows are the ones in the genomics and advanced health care spaces invite twist biosciences intellia therapeutics iovance biotherapeutics regeneron pharmaceuticals and novartis if you want to know my thoughts on why arc invest rotated money from genomic stocks to web technology stocks i talked about it in the same episode where i said the bottom was in for growth stocks you can check that out right now hopefully you're starting to see that all of my videos are really interconnecting puzzle pieces and that these end of quarter episodes really focus on how they all fit together all while being at least a little entertaining bazooka bazooka bazooka bazooka back hopefully this episode helped you understand how the fun flows themselves aren't what matter that total assets under management are what drive the size of kathy woods now 50 billion dollar buying bazooka and some of the biggest shots she took with it over the past quarter