저자: RamdevAgarwal · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 시장은 회복 국면이며 단기 조정 가능성은 있으나 매도보다 분산 투자와 손실 감내 준비가 핵심이라는 주장. 시장 전망: 유동성과 저금리 등 시장 동력이 유지되고 있어 단기 방향 예측은 어렵고 5~10% 조정 또는 상승 모두 가능하다고 봄. 경제 회복: 기업 실적과 경제 지표(GST 징수 등)가 개선되며 경제 재개방이 진행 중. 금융·은행 섹터는 신용비용 하락과 대출 증가로 수혜 예상. 디지털 기업 평가: 인터넷·디지털 기업은 기존 방식과 다른 밸류에이션이 필요하며, 글로벌 확장 가능성이 크다고 봄. 다만 실제 성패는 10년 단위로 갈리고 주식시장 반영은 2년 내 이뤄질 수 있음. IT 서비스 기업: 전통 인도 IT 서비스 기업은 디지털 전환 속도 대비 성장성이 제한적이라는 취지로 언급. 자동차·반도체: 반도체 부족으로 자동차 생산이 차질을 빚고 있으나 문제 해결 시 생산과 수요 회복이 기대됨. 자동차 섹터 회복 전망. 보험 섹터: 보험 가입 수요 증가와 1인당 소득 증가에 따라 다년간 성장 예상. 민간 보험사 중심으로 성장이 기대되며 생명·손해보험 기존 주식은 약세 가능성 언급. 전기차: 전기차 전환으로 신규 업체(Ola 등)와 기존 이륜차 업체(Hero, Bajaj, TVS 등)가 경쟁하며 시장 구도 변화 예상. 기존 기업 중 일부는 지배력 유지 가능성. 리스크: 글로벌 물류 차질과 인플레이션 압력이 복잡해지고 있어 4~6개월 내 해소를 기대하나 불확실. 중앙은행의 긴축 여력도 제한될 수 있음. 시장 상승 후 15~20% 조정 대비 필요. 투자 방법: 손실 가능성을 감내할 준비가 필요하며, 일반 투자자는 인덱스 펀드 등 분산 투자가 유리하다는 권고. 투기보다 투자 관점 중요.
다듬은 글
In this video, we will see what this entry investor Ramdev Agarwal thinks about the present market recovery and in which stocks and sectors should small investors invest in the economic condition. Momentum is there and then it is very difficult for us to predict when there will be a correction of 5 to 10 percent or there will be a rise of 1.3 percent.
I asked Ramdev ji that right now the market is at an all-time high, so should we worry? His answer was that right now it is difficult to predict when there will be a correction of 5 to 10 percent or there will be a rise of even 10 percent. It is not that it is just a correction, it can also increase.
So the drivers of the market are still intact, like liquidity, cost of liquidity is low, on the other hand, all these things are still intact. Corporate India is on recovery mode. The entire economy is opening up slowly, sectors are opening up one after the other. So you see, whatever the GST collection is, The indicators are improving, so the environment that exists right now is of economic recovery, and the corporates who are benefiting, particularly from the opening up, like the entire finance sector, the entire banking sector, have come a long way because credit costs will come down further as the economy recovers, and loan take-off will also happen.
There are many sectors where there will be huge benefits due to the opening up, so the fun is good. The economy is very elastic for investors, so the market is volatile on both sides. Five portions can go up, five portions can go down, there is no need to be afraid of that. The next question was asked about the scope in the valuation matrix of the digital companies that are coming up now.
His answer was that the business model of the internet companies and digital companies that are coming up is very different, their market is very good, so if we value them in the old way, then firstly, it will be a mistake, and secondly, understand that there is a different joy, different animals, so their Valuation will also be done differently.
The stock market's job is to determine the value of who can earn how much, whether it's a digital company or a physical company. Digital companies have potential, whether it's an Indian company, meaning those whose address is international, for a digital company. The fun of a company is that the company's investors, meaning the seven billion population, have no control over the global economy.
You can play in it. Digital has the power to make a successful business successful today, in the financial capital, spread across the world within five years. This is the possibility of a scalp daughter. This is the fundamental difference between old and new businesses. For example, if you look at Chinese companies, cement companies, hair oil businesses, you can't reach a million-ton turnover of 50 million.
But some retail companies are successful today. For example, if even one Google search engine is successful, these companies can become global in 10 years. So, that type of company has the power, whether it's in software or digital business, due to which that company can be scaled. It will be completely made in India like it happened in America, China, it is its beginning in India, first national companies will come, then international companies will go and it is possible that some less people will already be there in these companies, so their validation will be different because there are a lot of upsets, most of the opposition they face is due to profit and loss, not from the balance sheet, so their valuation track will be different and Ramdev ji is also learning that thing right now, these companies are different, now we will have to learn how to value it, companies will also have to learn and their valuation will also have to be learned, , can you comment about IT company qualification, Ramdev ji says that Indian Tech started in Noida and there was an opportunity at that time, when 9520 happened, it was a time constraint opportunity, the difficulty you had in Y2K was that you had to fold it within 3 years, so because of that, the engineers you got here at cheap rates, all the companies spent a lot of money Create, but that positive work will only be done in three to four years.
This current opportunity that is happening online, e-commerce is happening, digital is happening, the world is Vikram England, all these are huge appointments and are going to be there for a long time. So, if this company is formed, then only one out of 10 is going to be successful. We don't know which one will be successful right now, that year will tell.
In 90-20, hundreds of companies are listed, many are still listed, but there are only five players in the children, so right now 500 companies will go and only 10 to 12 watch companies will survive. The special thing is that whatever happened with tech companies in 9520, in that, all the companies had the business model of More or Less Team.
Indian Coast American Value Parlor had the model of selling fennel made in India for Rs. 125 per toll at that time, but all the companies had the same structure, it was the same company, it was different in digital, someone is doing it in education, someone is doing it in flats, someone is doing it in medical, someone is doing it in finance, that means you are printing the world's watch.
If you can, then this is a huge opportunity and a very long term opportunity and there is a lot of competition to win in this, so right now it is a complex situation, so what is there in this, see, the company will win in 10 years, but its victory and defeat in the stock market will happen in 2 years.
The next question asked to him was what he thinks about the valuation of midcap IT companies. His answer was that traditional Indian IT is a services company, dare not strictly digital, that is, digital and brothers, meaning if you want to create digital companies, then whatever service is there, it will be completed and given, so their work is enough, don't double, so want to go digital all night, so these companies do not have that much, which had record bookings last year, so this year continuously quarter like water logging will keep on filling and its tuition also with a leg of two to three quarters, what is not happening, the company is good, so the longevity of the company is good, all this is known, what is today's elevation, It is also known, but it is not known that a committee which has won over 1 million dollars today and has a profit of 200 million dollars, will become worth 2 billion or 3 billion after five years.
This will become clear as we move forward. So friends, if you want to do something related to it by clicking on it. The next question was asked to him, what do you think about the future of SP, then his answer was that we take a diversified portfolio, so no sector is completely zero, there is also automobile, there is underperformance in that too, because now there is a new problem in semiconductor, if you want to buy a car, then you have not bought it in the last 12 months, pictures of unknown even that something, then you have to buy it sooner or later.
We had thought that as soon as this is over, the first thing the world will do is line up to buy cars, but the production part of the car is not happening because there is a problem of time conductor, due to which the recovery has been deleted, so this time conductor I do n't know whether the problem is for two months or three months, but until this problem is solved, what is the opportunity in the market?
Classes will be sold but stocks will remain updated and as the problem is solved, production will pick up and demand is good, so there will be a lot of recovery in the automobile sector. Are you seeing a multi-year recovery in the insurance sector? His answer was, get insurance, it is not because of Monday Grant and what happened in Twenty20, see what they sell, it is Fair Best.
Right now, so much fear has increased among the people, those who did not have a policy, those who were thinking that they have to do it, they will do everything in 12 to 18 months, then you will get a huge bomb, there will be a lot of work in the next four to six months, so there is huge growth in it right now and there will be a long protest in the future also because insurance is connected to prosperity, so as your per capita increases, there will be sophistication in your insurance product and there will be a lot of growth.
Secondly, whatever you have Whether it's life insurance or general insurance, those shares will keep declining, and opposition to the private sector will increase. Just like it happened with banks, it will happen here too. Firstly, there is your anger. At the fashion industry level, you have a list of private sectors that have an industry growth of 22%.
These are good companies and will be promoted by 1-2 companies. This is a very good combination in terms of long-term and high- quality sectors. If not, then this is a very good portfolio candidate and should be in your portfolio. The next question asked to him was whether the advent of electric vehicles will replace other companies and sectors like oil companies.
His answer was that both will happen. You will have new players like Ola coming in, and that will also happen, and one or two more will also come, along with existing companies like Hero, Bajaj, TVS, Ayush. Now, what is the slowdown in all of these companies, and they understand it because they have to do it, and they are doing it.
The question is that the new candidates like Ola will take away their entire market share, and it doesn't seem like they will sit quietly. Everyone's products They will come and they have an extended crush game worth Rs 3000 to 5000 crores and Castrol is already running, everyone will launch it, so I think the industry, although there is a huge translation from Jhansi to electric, but more existing is clear, it will dominate.
What are you afraid of in the stock market? One thing that you are afraid of is this global and district disturbance that is going on, be it with containers or export-import, you may think that this problem will end in two to three to four months, but this problem has increased further, so some companies are also benefiting from this, but more than that, inflationary pressure can also happen in the entire world, so in a way, the people of money, the central banks, whose hands are free, may not have to pull them quickly because this problem is very serious, this Ramdev ji feels that it will end in the next four to six months, everything will improve, but this problem is becoming very complicated, the market has increased in the last month, now you will have to face 15 to 20 One should always be prepared for corrections of choice but should not sell shares, meaning one should mainly be prepared for potential losses.
The 11th class is profit and loss. I am talking about investors, so the loss that an investor incurs and the potential loss, the problem loss that is booked is a different thing, but if you went from 50 to 100 and the shock happened at 90, it does not mean that you have incurred a loss, your tempered glass has gone from 100 to 90, now the 90 is about to become 180, but for that you need patience, you will have to see both, you will have to solve it, you will have to see it happening and you will not have to see it becoming 20180 also, but you can see 180 out of fear only until you are ready to see 100 to 90.
The next question is where can one get better returns than the stock market, his answer was that it is meat, not talking about exceptional, these people do not even earn market returns, if you go to the bank, you will get 5 to 6 options, but you will get 15 If the market is giving cents then earn from it, there is a very simple way to earn from it, you buy mutual funds and if you do not know which is a good mutual fund then buy athletics, you buy index so that in very less money you will get the history of Sensex-Nifty and it will give you the return of the entire market, so the biggest way is that you invest in the market, first of all secondly you should understand whether you are an investor or a speculative, see there is nothing bad but it is very difficult to win in speculation and it is very difficult to lose in investment, keep this in mind, you should understand what you have to do.
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