저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 인도 강세장은 소매투자자 유입 확대로 구조적 변화가 진행 중이며, 조정은 불가피하지만 장기 우상향을 기대한다는 입장. 시장 구조 변화: 소매투자자 유입이 디지털 KYC 도입 이후 크게 늘었고, 향후 2~4년간 이 유입이 이어지면 이전 강세장보다 더 강한 시장이 될 것으로 봄. 2007~2008년 이전과 2020년 이전에는 소매 참여가 매우 약했다고 설명. 조정 전망: 조정은 반드시 발생하며 깊을 수 있으나 시장 사이클의 일부이므로 두려워할 필요는 없다고 주장. 현재 조정이 없었던 것은 비정상적인 상황이라는 인식. 장기 수익률 전망: 인도 지수의 장기 평균 수익률을 약 15% 수준으로 보고, 10년 후 5만 달러가 약 200만 달러 수준까지 갈 수 있다는 사례를 언급. 다만 단기간 고성장을 기대하는 것은 비현실적이며, 1992~2002년 같은 급등은 재현되기 어렵다고 경고. 기업 선별 기준: 빠르게 부를 창출하는 기업은 시대별 트렌드(IT, 디지털 등)에 따라 바뀌며, 디지털 기업은 개별 기업 차이가 커서 기업 단위의 깊은 이해가 필요하다고 조언. 디지털 분야는 빠른 통합으로 소수 승자 독식 구조가 될 것으로 전망. 소비재·금융 섹터: 소비재 기업은 이미 유통 확장이 많이 진행되어 성장률이 GDP 수준에 근접한다고 평가하며 상대적으로 매력 낮음. 금융 섹터는 향후 7~8년간 150조 루피 이상의 신용 수요가 예상되며, 공공은행 통합 등으로 대형 은행의 기회가 크다고 봄. 특정 자산·종목 직접 언급 없음.
다듬은 글
I'll play the previous song for Verma, dance on Bluetooth settings. By that time, we'll deal with social media and the Lord of the Channel. Ramdev Agarwal was asked, "We're seeing a market like never before. No one is complaining, but as the days go by, the number of stocks that are at 52-week highs is increasing.
And the number of naysayers is increasing. What do you think about this?" Ramdev Agarwal said, "This is the typical gold standard of the herbal market, and the herbal market goes through these phases of disbelief. Thanks to social media and everyone else, the notice is quite high. The structure of the market has fundamentally changed, and that change is taking place in a way that goes beyond the last time.
This change is about the retail revolution that is taking place in the food culture that is coming to India. But it's not just about the Rathore Kallu investors that are drawing in, but the focus is precisely on retail investors." Those who could not enter the market for many years, thanks to the digitization of the KYC process, are now coming in large numbers.
So, that is a real change. As long as the entry of retail investors continues for the next two to four years, Ramdev Agarwal ji feels that we will see a different market, a stronger one than what we saw in the first round market. Because earlier, the market was without retail investors. Politically, from 2007 to 2008 and before 2020, retail investing was very weak and now it is extremely strong.
Therefore, the participation you are seeing is different and only time will tell how it will look. But in a party where there are many people, it is a lot of fun. So friends, if you like this video, then do like, share and subscribe to this channel. The next question asked to him was, if we have opened demat account stores, see how they have got them, how they have used Samsung Smart, how has the technology and have you helped people in participating, so some people further say that the new people who are investing They haven't seen a correction in the market yet, so what if a correction happens?
Because if you feel that point, you won't feel like standing in the kitchen, in a way. Ramdev Agarwal says that a correction will happen, and if you can play for a long time, the correction can be deep, it can look like a mine crush, so it will definitely happen. You can't define the end of the market without a diet, it will happen.
Whatever happens, many people will follow the west side, their experience may be bad, the IPO market may fall, so these things will happen, it is part of the market cycle and it will happen, but you should not be afraid of these things, it is part of the team. Ramdev Agarwal is saying that if it does not happen, then it means it is very unnatural, and this is an anomaly at this time, that this has not happened for some time.
Fans have seen villains and questions in the last week, but the market still does not want to see them in front of you. In the sense, with billions of dollars of sales, you should see blood on the streets, but that is not happening, so this is the change that Ramdev Agarwal is talking about. Yes, what we are talking about does not mean that there will not be a correction, there will be collection from another edition, but it is like this, no one can decide how things will change and this is one thing that seems different from the rest of the time.
The next question was asked why the Indian market is performing so well. Very rarely have we seen such performance that has lasted for such a long time. Ramdev Agarwal ji feels that we must have underperformed earlier. This chain will say that in 2021 we were doing very well. In 2020 and 2019 we must have done very badly.
If you look at six months, we must have outperformed a lot, but that does not mean that we have done very well in 30-5 years. The market has its own cycle in terms of when it will perform and when it will underperform. But if you look at it a little longer, Ramdev Agarwal ji does not think that we are developing Amazon Quid differently.
It is related to the market, friends, investing and stock market. If you want to do tha by clicking on it. If this question was asked to him, if we look at the last one year, I have seen a lot of games and if we take your point further, in which we extend the timeline to three, four or five years, then the market is in line with the long-term edge, then can we say that we can look back and talk about the level of 1606 and the SEZ team, we have only raised the alarm on the long-term average, so what Ramdev Agarwal ji had said that 50,000 can go up to 2 lakhs in 10 years, so he got a lot of calls from people asking whether this is possible, then it is that the market will be profitable, when people say away from 50,000, no one sees that he is worth 1.5 lakhs, but basically he has done forex in 20 years, he has done forex many times in 10 years, if you analyze the stock moment, then Ghulam Devgan has a 40-year career in the stock market, who has made 64,000, then he will be 15 If TDS is given on point five portion amount then if 15 point five portion is given in index then he is saying but earlier first decade was 20 question, second 20 percent of thought ticket was more than 30 percent and haunted 10 percent of it, so he is saying that worst can also be 130000 and best can also be 3 lakh, so the middle part which is first mate can alarm with long term average 15 portion which will give us 2 lakh, if it goes up to 170000 or 180000 or 2 lakh 10 thousand then also we have done very well and how do you see this because we are moving in future and we are buying in future then you will have some expectations, so what are those expectations, how should we set our expectations, Ramdev Agarwal ji is saying that do not keep expectations that in 2 years it will become one in 3 years It will become 21, all this is not going to happen in the long term, yes you may like 15% in the next six months, but that does not mean that you will get 10 times in 10 years, the index will never multiply 10 times in 10 years, it is very unlikely, and even if it does, what happened between 1992 and 2002 never happened, the Sensex went up to 742 in 19 months, that is why Harshad Mehta, Brightness Harshad Mehta said, and it does not seem that this thing will happen in the market, but you cannot say anything, but what happened again, it came down to 4225, so there will be a correction, the market itself has a correction mechanism, it will do it once, it will correct every three to six months, but you do not know what the correction will be, there will be many crashes, that is part of the stock market, the next question was asked to him that you have seen four market cycles, when you say that Nakul, market cycle is different, then it is different, in every market cycle you also have seen inverse changes, first you are a loss making company in that They didn't invest, but now you've done it in time.
Ramdev Agrawal replied, "They're expanding the circle of competition." And you could be wrong about it. Look, the growth is coming from drinking, not from the balance sheet. That's not to be understood. When Deol is offering this to the panel, it does n't mean that. Some are launching this model. So, you have to figure out which companies are Abhilasha companies that have the potential to make billions of dollars in the next four to six years.
You have to differentiate between those companies that will never make a profit or will make less profit and those companies that are built to make more profit because they're not fundamentally addressing the right economics. They're addressing the 9021 Dholak Noble Economics. And this changes the politicized outlook of companies.
Now, we have to see if it's complete and if their business model will match our expectations. If we look at your famous wealth creation study, Infosys, Wipro, Kotak Mahindra Bank, ST-SC have been consistent wealth creators over time. But when you are saying that today startups are coming out on top, hypothetically, if this wealth creation study was for 2030, do you think that the names mentioned here would have been different?
Because the names of the companies from 2010 to 2020 have not changed, all the changes are in percentage. Ramdev Agarwal ji says that there are two categories, first is the largest wealth creators and second is the fast wealth creators. There has not been much change in the largest ones, meaning there are slow changes in them, but in the fast ones, something different happens every time, which shows that the fast ones are the five- year fast wealth creator companies which have the flavor of the decade, so that lever is changing.
If you study the year 2000, almost all of them were tech companies. Nine out of 10 companies were fastest growing tech companies and among the fastest trading companies, The motility rate is high because now these compounds cannot be systemized for 200 points. Hundred percent compound and tens to hundred percent compound for 5 years will be like shop and sunrise, so what will be the level of issue, it will be very difficult to validate, to justify from fundamentals and when people in real life will say that this is not possible, then things will start falling, so this will happen in digital companies too, this has happened with soya companies, it has happened with tech companies, it has happened with real estate companies and now this is the time to happen with digital companies, the next question was asked to him that you have invested in Asian Paints, Scheduled Nestle Classic, Consive franchises, today if a basket is made of top free consumer companies and top free consumer tax companies, then which tech company will make more profits because the opportunity size is very big, the topic which is from global consumer tax company is digital, so with that thing they will dominate the entire country award This is n't possible with consumer companies because consumer companies have already expanded their distribution.
Whatever they could have done is reduced to a single point, so their growth rate is much lower than the normal GDP growth rate. They struggle to grow even on the downstream policy. Whoever you call them is growing in double digits. Double-digit growth is an aspirational goal. 10 to 15 years is basically your normal GDP growth rate.
So, this is very low. Message- free, cashless, almost doubly profitable wealth creation or value creation for shareholders. But this company is available at this multiple of 80 to 150. So, it will make a lot of money, as much as tech companies do. But today, the growth profit will be between Rs 100 crore and Rs 2000 crore for digital companies, but it wo n't be that much for oil companies.
They will continue to keep the oil company's profit at 12 to 15 percent. And this company would like its Grow Chalisa, and I'm also soft only, but this is a very exotic time. The digital copy of the next 10 years is for this. When someone invests in the IT sector, the idea was to talk to software companies because that sector did well.
But Tomato's business model is different from Nayika's, and like Ab's business model is different from Policy Bazaar. You can call them digital companies, but how can one understand which is a good digital company? The challenge with digital companies is that every company is different. No two companies are the same.
Like Smart is different from Nayika, and Nayika is different from any other company. They are addressing very narrow opportunities. And because they live in the digital space, there will be consolidation very quickly. With growth, only two to three will remain clear, so that one winner will take all.
Similarly, in the political space, it will also be very unique. Right now, all that is happening in India, but there is tension about going global, so you should have company-level knowledge. Once you are free and clear about how you should look at digital companies, then you You need to focus on a specific company and then try to fit it into that particular fabric and then examine the background to see if it is fulfilling your objective.
The next question asked was whether you have run a portfolio that is focused on finance bye-laws. The private bank insurance market is telling you that finance is not catering to everyone. High-growth companies are not going to banks for capital. UltraTech Cement needs to be tipped, but it is generating so much erosive capital that it is not going to banks.
Tata Steel management has said that it will meet the gastronomic tree requirement in the next three years. So what will happen to finance even when a well-known company is coming back? Look, it will start on private sector. Very few companies like Tata Steel will now have anti-terrorist assurance for years and they will not need bank support.
But these will be companies that have done all the launching in the past five years. So, you might be in some other segment like infrastructure, cement companies, or many consumer companies. And it is not known where that loan demand will come from. For example, if the economy grows in a country, if there is a single agenda, if we can deliver seven to eight percent growth, like China does, somehow, then once we achieve that, everything else will fall into place.
As soon as we start looking at bank rates, when we move from a free-market economy to a sector-led economy, in the next seven to eight years, we will need more than ₹150 lakh crore in credit. The composition may be different, but you will need credit. Economic development always lags behind credit intensity.
Credit entry will be the next increment, free training, and that will be very high. Now, where are those banks that will do this? Only 5 to 6 banks can do this. Now the government is also saying that all the PSU banks should be merged into four to five private sector banks like SBI. So, let's say five PSU banks and five private sector banks.
So, at the most, you will have 10 banks which will be able to provide credit worth ₹110 lakh crore in the next five to six years, which is a huge opportunity. So, that volume migration from public sector banks will be a big step towards this. Sector private sector, more money will be spent and a message will go out that those points can be improved.
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