저자: RamdevAgrawal&SanjoyBhattacharya · 외국인
요약 보기
장기투자와 인내를 강조하는 인터뷰 영상. 두 출연자 모두 인도 시장 장기 성장을 낙관하며 단기 타이밍보다 오래 보유하는 것이 부를 만든다고 주장. 인도 경제는 매우 빠르게 성장 중이며 적은 노력으로 큰돈을 벌 기회가 많다고 봄. 핵심 만트라는 좋은 주식을 찾아 사서 수년간 보유하는 것이며, 시장 타이밍보다 시장에 머무는 시간이 중요하다고 주장. 인포시스는 1993년 IPO 이후 약 6000배 성장했다는 사례를 들었으며, 장기 보유의 효과를 강조. 10년 15%대 수익률이면 자산이 약 10배가 되고 20년·30년이면 각각 100배·1000배 수준이 된다는 복리 계산도 제시. 사업가 마인드로 주식을 보유해야 하며, 이해 가능한 좋은 사업에 투자하라는 조언. 인도 내 국내 기업들의 부상(기술·제약·자동차·금융 전반)과 중소형 신규상장 기업의 급성장을 긍정적으로 평가. 소비 측면에서는 소득 증가 시 재량지출이 배로 늘어나는 구조를 지목하며, 헬스케어와 교육을 유망 분야로 제시. 중앙 정치 리더십 변화는 경제에 큰 영향이 없다는 입장. 과거 실수 사례로 Ramdev는 HDFC Bank 주식을 52루피에 매도한 것을, Sanjoy는 Asian Paints 매도 후 주택 구입에 쓴 것을 꼽음. 리스크는 집중된 과다 레버리지와 재무구조 악화를 피하라는 점으로 언급.
다듬은 글
The Indian stock market and the direction it's heading look frightening, and I'm here with two people. When Ramdeo Agrawal of Motilal Oswal was asked for his thoughts, he shared two or three things. First, he said India is one of the fastest-growing economies, and it will make a lot of money with very little effort. Investors are going to get multiple opportunities in the future. The only thing you need to keep in mind is that you have to buy stocks and stay invested in them for years. You won't be able to make money unless you are prepared. Find the stock, buy it immediately, and stay invested for years. This is the basic mantra for becoming rich.
He says that timing the market isn't important, but staying in the market over time is. 98% of people don't make money because they keep thinking about which company to buy and can't time the market. For example, he said Infosys' IPO started in 1993 and has grown six thousand times. If you had invested then and sat patiently, you would have made a lot of money today.
According to him, having a long horizon in the stock market is very important, and he feels this is just the beginning. When I asked Sanjoy Bhattacharya about his investment outlook, he said he also feels that people have to build wealth through the stock market. He mentioned two things. The first is to think that you are running the business yourself, so don't look at the paper every day. Whether you are a business partner or hold 21 percent, always think, "I am running this business," and be patient with that mindset. If you are in business, you should not think about selling or shutting it at any time. This will automatically create a long-term focus in your mind.
The second thing is that you have to buy a good business, meaning one you can understand. To grow, a business doesn't need so much money that its balance sheet becomes empty.
When Ramdeo Agrawal was asked what he thinks about the future of the Indian stock market, his answer was that many multinational companies face competition here. Along with tech companies, many other Indian companies, such as SBI, now hold a 10 percent share. Even foreign companies can't make money here, and even old foreign companies are no longer as strong. Now Indian entrepreneurship as a whole has come to the fore, and very aggressive entrepreneurship has emerged. Whether it's technology, pharmaceuticals, automotive, or financial services, domestic companies have come up everywhere.
This is growing very rapidly, and so many new companies are being created in such a big market. They start with a listing of 200 to 400 crore and reach ten to twenty thousand crore very quickly. Wealth creation has happened on a large scale, and in two or three stocks there has been remarkable speed. Consider how speed works: if your wealth increased fifty times in 10 years, your portfolio performance, which was 15 percent, would have to be counted from where your purchase was made. That means your money increases ten times in 10 years. Suppose it's 6 to 7 percent lower; then your net worth will roughly be around that level, so money will increase tenfold in 10 years, a hundredfold in 20 years, and a thousandfold in 30 years.
Now let's come to the next question: what effect will changing central leadership have on the Indian economy? Ramdeo Agrawal said it won't make any difference. This is the story of entrepreneurship, the story of the country, not the story of any individual. Your portfolio depends on the businessman.
Sanjoy Bhattacharya said that when he met Ramdeo ji in 1956, the political situation in this country was very worrying. Even then, there was a lot of uncertainty, but the opportunities we got in that atmosphere of uncertainty brought us the gains we made. He said that after that he would never get such returns anywhere else. In the stock market, uncertainty can really test your nerve and make you panic, but if you have the courage to stand firm amid uncertainty, believing your country will move from the valley of poverty toward prosperity, the rewards will come.
The next question asked was which sectors they see as worth investing in for the future. Sanjoy Bhattacharya says that for him, money itself doesn't matter; what matters is making money the right way. He looks for good businesses run by honest people that compete with a significant margin of safety. Wherever you look, if you work hard, you will always find the right kind of company and good processes.
On this, Ramdeo ji says that discretionary spending will rise as incomes rise. If your income is 1 lakh and you spend 10,000 rupees on discretionary items, then when your income doubles to 2 lakh, your discretionary spending will increase tenfold. This discretionary spending will keep rising. For example, destination weddings are a discretionary luxury people are happily spending on these days. Other examples include cars: people will keep a separate car, a sports car, or an open car. There will be a house, a holiday home, beach homes, and then a farmhouse. So discretionary spending will keep increasing.
Sanjoy ji said he sees opportunities in two areas: first, healthcare, and second, education. Anything connected with these also offers favorable growth opportunities. For people looking in these sectors, the best ones, as both of them noted, are those with strong fundamentals.
Sanjoy Bhattacharya named Punjab Tractors, the lesson of Kia Mahindra, Mahindra, and secondly Brooke Bond, and thirdly Hero Honda. From Ramdeo Agrawal's best picks, he named Hero Honda first and Indian Hero Honda second. While talking about an easy opportunity, he said that when he bought Angry Birds, everyone refused him, but within two years the profit increased fifty times.
Both were asked about their biggest mistakes. Ramdeo Agrawal said he had five lakh shares of HDFC Bank, which he sold at Rs 52 after hearing about his unemployment. Sanjoy Bhattacharya said the first stock he would have bought in his life was Asian Paints, which he bought at Rs 50. His biggest regret is that he sold his Asian Paints shares to buy a house in Nalasopara.
So friends, if you want to earn money from the stock market, remember this basic mantra. First, you have to be patient. Second, you don't have to time the market; instead, you have to give time to the market. Third, pick a good company and remain an investor in it for years.
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