저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
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트럼프 당선 후 야성적 낙관(Animal Spirits) 확산으로 증시 상승 전망. 법인세 21→15% 인하·규제완화로 이익률 상승 기대, 기술·통신·산업재 비중확대 유지. S&P500 연말 6,100, 2025년 말 7,000, 2026년 말 8,000, 2030년 전후 8~10,000 제시. 비트코인은 뉴스 의존적 신앙자산으로 언급. 금리는 인하 불필요, 연준 동결 권고, 채권시장은 금리 상승 우려. 인플레 지속성 우려는 존재.
다듬은 글
Mr Ed yardeni and he joins us this morning Ed I got to go to you on bitcoin at 93,000 how do you invest or speculate in something where there's no underlying there's no profit there's no free cash flow there's no history of gold how do you do that Ard Denny I guess you um just to have to be a believer it's it's kind of a faith asset uh the the the view that um there'll be more and more buyers of this uh particular asset just keeps driving it up and I guess in terms of trading it all you can really do is be a technical analyst um you know there's a little consolidation pattern there then Trump wins and it goes straight up so right you know I think a lot of it's news dependent and if the news is favorable it goes up um that's that's kind of the the story and Denny America's turned upside down Republicans Democrats Independence we're going from press release to press release some thrilled some not Etc Ander Denny how do you invest in this if you have a minimum time hold of three years how do we emotionally get through the political malstrom well I think first and foremost uh it's pretty well known that the best way to invest is to ignore politics uh or or at least not let your personal political views influence your stock portfolio Market tends to go up whether it's Democrats or Republicans in the white house um I guess sometimes we have to be a little bit more specific about the extent to which they're also uh the same party that's in the White House is also in Congress uh but all in all the market uh it's p times e and U as long as the earnings Outlook is uh for more growth um and the longer is that outlook for growth the higher the PE and that's kind of the environment we're in right now so Ed how did your outlook on this Market change if at all with uh the election last Tuesday uh more bullish uh not for political reasons but simply because I think Animal Spirits have been Unleashed U Trump is definitely viewed as being a more Pro bus uh uh president than Harris would have been he wants to cut taxes again on corporations as well as cut some taxes on lower income um workers he wants to deregulate and then I think the market is also excited about the possibility that some of these intractable geopolitical crises might have a chance of getting resolved as kind of trump does his deal ma de deal making magic perhaps between Ukraine and Russia and and I don't think it's going to be deal making in the Middle East I think it's going to be sort of a a free ticket for the Israelis to take out um Iran and what are there any sectors that kind of jump out at you that might be particular beneficiaries of this uh new Republican Le government well I'm not too creative here I uh I'm still recommending the I'm still recommending the same uh sectors that we've been recommending for a while here uh three out of four have worked one hasn't and the recommendation is to overweight technology including communication Services kind of counting that as as one sector uh that's worked extremely well and I think should continue to do well so I we'd overweight that Industrials has done very well financials and the only clunker has been energy and your Danny give me a MAG s update Dan IES is in the house he's been the the acolyte of Apple forever Planet here forever take a sector view on mag 7 can you add shares here do you hold do you lighten up well I think uh lightning up hasn't been a wise thing to do though that out though everybody's scratching their head about why Warren Buffett's getting out of apple um why is he getting out of apple Dr that's one of the great mysteries of life these days is why he's scrambling to raise so much cash and uh one of the interpretations is uh he knows something or he thinks he knows something about things uh turning sour pretty quickly here and uh he likes to buy things cheap it may simp simply be that is that he just views that not only doesn't have anything to buy with his the cash he had uh but uh some of these assets that he have have appreciated to such an extent that uh he just wants to roll it into cash and the cash by the way uh is looking pretty good it's still yielding uh three and a half to four and a half percent so I I think uh I I think it's it's an inscrutable situation and I can't for the life of me figure it out I guess after the fact if everything blows apart we'll say Warren bu was the only one he saw it coming there was a Wonder child out of the Midwest pre-World War II and he took some exams Paul out of the blue to get into Harvard without applying to Harvard Harvard took him full scholarship the whole thing Sterling career and he ended up at a small school in New Haven and James Tobin even if you disagreed with him was always this light this light of intellect and size and he is the one in 1976 with James me who said nominal GDP matters this was revolutionary at the time to this day hugely controversial Ed Ard Deni carries his Spirit forward by looking at animal spirit which in the definition of Bloomberg surveillance is real GDP plus inflation Ed yard Deni what would James Tobin say about the new animal spirit of a trump Administration well I think think he uh would uh approve of the uh concept though not necessarily the context that which in which it occurs I mean animal spirits uh was a phrase that was uh concocted by uh his hero which is John mayard KES and John Maynard kees described it as spontaneous optimism and I think Tobin was very much of a liberal and a Democrat so I think he would have preferred to describe uh animal spirits as occurring under a democratic rather than a republican Administration but uh he was objective and it is what it is I mean we have seen so far spontaneous optimism Animal Spirits with the election of uh president Trump some of that may be that um the election turned out to be not even close it wasn't contested so it was over with and done uh but on the other hand right Trump's policies uh are good for for nominal GDP for the most part though they're clearly some potential negatives when you work with Eric wallera on this and you get to the Roaring 20s of Ed yard Deni is it as simple is high we underestimate Revenue growth in American corporations well I I'm not sure that the revenues is the issue uh revenues I think are going to be okay but revenues are generated on a global basis and while the US economy looks pretty good good actually stands out compared to the rest of the world uh China Europe some of these other areas look pretty weak it's really all about earnings the profit margin is going to automatically go up when uh Trump uh I think one of the first things he'll do is get through Congress it cut of the corporate tax rate from 21% to 15% and then deregulation is Known Unknown we don't know how much of it will occur and how much will be reflected in uh in profit margins but oh by the way before the election we were still talking about the Roaring 2020s uh figuring the productivity is going to make a comeback no matter who's in the White House and how is inflation a concern here I think some folks are concerned that uh tariffs number one number two uh you know Cuts in uh tax uh rates could fuel inflation is that a concern of yours well I think on balance when you uh include the potential for for deregulation and and tax cuts that maybe sort of a wash but yeah I have to be concerned about it we all have to be concerned about it the bond Market's certainly concerned about it uh my friends the bond vilanis have taken the bond deal up by about 70 75 basis points since the FED cut the FED funds rate by 75 basis points so somebody's wrong here and the bond Market's basically saying no Moss we we don't need any any rate Cuts because the economy is doing well and the so-called neutral rate is high higher than fed officials believe as evidenced by the strength of the economy so Ed what do you think the uh the FED will do and what do you think the fed maybe should do the FED should do nothing which is what they should have done last week but uh they just won't listen to me I I don't know why what is that about they they've got their own agenda and uh look ever since Jackson HS uh the speech that that pal gave was extraordinarily doish was almost wokish reminiscent of the kind of uh focus on just on unemployment that we had before the inflation surge of 2022 and 2023 so I I think we are seeing some stickiness in the inflation rate uh the so-call super core inflation rate that uh not too long ago pal said was a key number suddenly is ignoring that and you Danny we got to get it on the record you've just been you know without question the equity strategist of the last 24 months I got Futures at 6,022 Remind us Ed yard Deni where we are with your 7% growth rate in one three dare I say in 10 years well uh when when Trump was elected uh we thought about it we thought about the animal spirits and what could happen to uh to earnings as a result of the profit margin and uh we turn more bullish the reality is we haven't been bullish enough uh and we've been among the most bullish but so now we're looking for 6,100 by the end of the year on the S&P 500 that's that's almost a layup uh and then uh I think we're look then we're looking for 7,000 by the end of next year and 8,000 by the end of 2026 and um 8 to 10,000 by the end of the decade probably closer to 10 than to to eight I want you to fold this folks of Dr yardeni with Dr manil yesterday to have Alicia manell on yesterday y on the failure of our retirement plan and yeah we got to put more money aside but mostly what we have to do is listen to Ed yardeni if you're scared stiff you're in cash you're in bonds maybe you can get the confidence of yard Deni by looking out three years and five years carefully to the kind of vector the kind of Glide path you Ed youry thank you
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