저자: StockCompounder-BradKaellner · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 마법공식 포트폴리오를 자의적으로 추가 필터링하면 성과가 떨어지며, 기계적으로 운용하고 장기 보유하는 인내가 핵심이라는 조엘 그린블랫의 경고를 정리한 영상입니다. 발단: 영상 제작자는 마법공식 상위 50개 종목에 슈퍼투자자 보유 여부, 가치투자클럽 추천, 내부자 지분율 등을 추가 필터로 적용해 첫 5개 종목을 매수했습니다. 시청자 Nikhil의 지적을 계기로 그린블랫의 구글 강연과 관련 기사를 다시 확인했습니다. 그린블랫 연구 인용: 자기 관리 계좌는 2년간 누적 59.4%로 같은 기간 S&P500(62.7%)에 못 미쳤습니다. 전문가 운용(무작위 선정·자동 매도) 계좌는 84.1%로 약 25%p 앞섰습니다. 자기 관리 투자자가 부진한 이유 1: 시장에서 저평가된 기업(인기 없는 종목)을 눈에 띄는 뉴스 때문에 회피함. 예시로 케임브리지 애널리티카 사태 당시 페이스북을 들었습니다. 이유 2: 전략이 부진하면 중도 포기. 가격 하락 시 손절하고 상승 시 더 공격적으로 매수하는 경향이 있습니다. 이유 3: 하락장에서 자금을 빼고, 상승기에 추가 매수하는 행태가 수익을 깎음. 가격 상승은 장기 기대수익률을 낮춘다는 점을 강조합니다. 가장 성과가 좋았던 계좌는 최초 매수 후 아무것도 하지 않은 계좌였습니다. 인내가 가장 큰 자산이라는 메시지입니다. 제작자의 적용 계획: 1년 기계적 매도 대신, 자신이 필터로 쓰는 슈퍼투자자가 해당 종목을 매도할 때까지 보유하겠다고 밝혔습니다. 100배 종목은 평균 26년이 걸린다는 연구도 언급했습니다. 대상 자산 언급: 구체적 가격 예측이나 방향성 발언은 없음. 대상 자산 목록의 종목·지수·금리·환율에 대한 1~3개월 방향 예측 발언은 확인되지 않았습니다. 리스크/조건: 연구 수치는 특정 기간(2년)과 특정 데이터에 기반하며, 미래 성과를 보장하지 않습니다. 개인 투자 경험 공유 성격의 영상입니다.
다듬은 글
talk about how to sabotage your magic formula investing portfolio this is a warning from joel greenblatt so to give a little back story uh at the end of june i started using the magic formula investing approach i started i bought my first five magic formula stocks and the way i did that i made a video a few weeks ago about it but i took the top 50 results for the magic formula made a spreadsheet and then i looked for which of the stocks were owned by super investors that's super investors that are tracked by data roma okay dataroma.com um because i thought well you know if i can narrow these options down to companies that these great investors have already vetted and purchased that's probably going to improve my odds so that was my kind of first filter then i narrowed those remaining stocks down by companies that had a value investors club right up okay and then i i further weeded it down by looking at insider ownership percentage because there was a book written called 100 baggers stocks that return 100 to 1 and how to find them and a big commonality between 100 baggers was high insider ownership or owner operators where the people who are running that company have a lot of skin in the game their rewards are aligned with those of shareholders okay so anyway that's that's how i set up my first five buys with the magic formula and a few days ago i got a comment from nikhil i hope i'm saying that right and nikhil basically said you know it makes sense that you're filtering stocks in this way but i'm concerned that when you tr when you take the magic formula investing approach and you try to combine it with these other filters you're actually diminishing your results okay um and so i got curious about that i was like huh i was under the impression that you know as long as we select from that magic formula list we're going to get those results as long as we have 20 to 30 stocks in our portfolio but he mentioned that joel greenblatt said something about this in his google talk all right so i went back through and i watched the google talk and greenblatt did say something about this he said investors who try to pick individual companies within the magic formula screen do tend to do worse than companies that are picked uh an approach where companies are picked at random okay so and there's an article that he he uh referenced in that talk and i'm gonna link that article in the description here so you can kind of follow through as i go through it's a fascinating little write-up about this difference between you know trying to intelligently select stocks within the magic formula versus you know automatically generating them or randomly picking them and the little uh right up here is adding your two cents may cost a lot over the long term okay like i said i linked it in the description uh so essentially after joel greenblatt released this magic formula investing approach to the world he did something very smart so there was what does he call it he set up a way on the website where you can click professionally managed okay which means the magic formula approach will be implemented for you all right versus people who want to self-manage people who want to you know decide which of the stocks in the magic formula they buy and then kind of decide when to sell those stocks as well he found for all the self-managed accounts over a two-year period there was a cumulative return of 59.4 percent okay uh which is great that's that's almost 30 a year now the downside here is the s p 500 over that period uh was up 62.7 so you would have done better over those two years just to have a passive stake in the s p 500 index versus this magic formula approach the interesting thing is that a compilation of the professionally managed accounts earned 84.1 percent over the same two years which is you know beating the self-managed by about 25 which is is significant it's a huge difference actually he calls it so you know he he wanted to know why did the self-managed accounts lag behind the professionally managed accounts and i think these professionally managed accounts were really just where you know you kind of you set it up to to run automatically the stocks are picked at random uh the the buys and the cells happen as predetermined um you know if it's a winning stock it's sold just after a year if it's a losing sock it's it's sold just before a year to have tax advantages and it's all just set up and there's no humans that are making any decisions about it that's the professionally managed so let's talk about why why did the self-managed underperform so number one self-managed investors avoided buying many of the biggest winners okay and here's why joel greenblatt thinks that happened the market prices certain businesses cheaply for reasons that are usually very well known okay these businesses are out of favor all right and you know if if humans are looking at this list it's going to be easier to pick out the businesses that are clearly out of favor in the news or you know it may even just be popularly known that these business businesses there are issues with them it reminds me of facebook during the whole cambridge analytica scandal and it was you know down i think it got down to like 130 something 130 dollars per share and obviously look you look at where it is now facebook was out of favor so you know even if facebook might have shown up on a magic formula list you know with all of this stuff going on the scandal uh out of faith like people are running away from facebook people are closing their facebook accounts so you know an investor might have seen that in the list and automatically disqualified that even though uh because it was so cheap it had a much higher likelihood of doing very well simply because it was so cheap so that's the first thing self-managed investors with the magic formula portfolio they're systematically avoiding those companies that are out of favor so that's one number two many self-managed investors change their game plan after the strategy underperformed for a period of time this is really uh this is so common in the stock market guys as as the as your portfolio drops as it seems like you're losing money right you stop buying you start to think about oh what if i lose more money or oh it's it must be risky because the prices are going down because it seems like i'm losing money that's when people flee right and the same same thing happens with magic formula portfolio when in reality that's actually the best time to double down or at least at least stay in the game at least continuing to execute your plan so you know he says here it's hard to stick with a strategy that's not working for a little while the biggest advantage we have as investors is to have patience okay it takes it can take years it can really take years for something that's undervalued something that's a bargain to be fully priced by the markets number three is related to number two change their game plan after the market and their self-managed portfolios declined so you get like a market crash situation a market decline people tend to flee from their investments pull money out when those things happen and number four many self-managed investors bought more after good periods of performance okay so this is the inverse of fleeing when stock prices are crashing as stock prices are rising people tend to get more aggressive with their investments thinking the the rising prices are affirming their investment decisions that oh this must be a great investment because the price is going up and of course as the price goes up your prospective returns actually go down as the price goes up in relation to the value of the stock the long-term prospects are actually less attractive and that's something that not many people it's hard it's hard to understand that it's hard to really internalize that and this last piece is actually the most important piece to me the best performing self-managed account didn't actually do anything okay what i mean is that after the initial account was opened the client bought stocks from the list and never touched them again for the entire two-year period so in this case it's i mean two years isn't really a coffee can approach but it's it's the coffee can kind of mentality where you know you're buying these companies because they show promising uh potential as being good long-term investments and then you forget about it you know you you let time you know grow your wealth grow your portfolio so this this is fascinating and this is really something i'm trying to intelligently figure out how to incorporate into my magic formula portfolio and the way i'm doing it now the way i'm anticipating deciding when to sell companies is to wait until that super investor who also owns the stock because remember that's my first filter criteria it must be owned by a super investor to wait until that super investor sells that position okay so it's not going to be the one year kind of buy and sell that's that's recommended by the magic formula portfolio and this is encouraging this little piece here the best performing self-managed account didn't do anything okay uh that that really kind of affirms this idea of waiting longer than a year you know hundred baggers take an average of 26 years to become 100 baggers at least in the study that was done for chris myers book and you know joel greenblatt says it over and over again the the really the the magic the the best advantage we have as investors is patience doing less okay so i am i'm incorporating that ethos into my magic formula strategy by you know waiting not selling after a year but waiting until you know somebody much smarter than myself has decided okay it's time to part ways with this particular company with this particular stock so i'm so grateful for nikhil and i hope i'm pronouncing that right for um leaving that comment leaving that comment questioning whether it was actually productive for me to be um trying to intelligently narrow down my magic formula stock selections using these additional criteria criteria beyond earnings yield and return on invested capital that that go into the magic formula it's really given me a lot to think about so really appreciate you and hopefully you guys got something out of this let me know what you guys think of this this little article that i linked and discuss throughout this video uh it's it's fascinating but anyway with that i will leave you guys and see you in the next video take care
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