저자: BillAckman—인터뷰대상,진행자DavidRubenstein제외 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 경기 침체 속에서도 주가지수가 회복된 이유는 대형 우량주 중심 지수 구조와 미래 현금흐름 기대 때문이며, 시장은 실물경기 전체의 스냅샷이 아니라는 취지다. 지수 괴리 원인: S&P500은 시가총액 가중 지수로 대형 우량 기업(Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Google)이 지수를 주도한다. 이들은 재무구조와 시장지위가 강해 위기의 수혜를 받았다. 반면 미국 소형 상장사 지수는 위기 이후 50~80% 하락했다고 언급했다. S&P500은 위기 이후 약 45% 상승했다고 설명했다. 기업가치 관점: 기업가치는 평생 창출할 현금흐름의 현재가치이므로 단기(1~2년) 현금흐름 훼손이 있어도 장기 이익 전망이 크면 가치는 유지된다. 성장주 밸류에이션은 향후 1~2년보다 장기 이익에 더 민감하다. 변동성: 하루 10% 등락은 미래에 대한 불확실성과 투자자 심리가 반영된 결과다. 팬데믹 종식 시점, 여행·외식 재개 시점에 대한 불확실성이 컸다. 그는 개별 기업 단위로 보면 시장이 극단적으로 잘못됐다고 보지 않는다고 말했다. 신용스프레드 베팅: 3월 약 2,700만 달러를 투입해 신용스프레드 확대에 베팅했고 약 26억 달러 수익을 냈다. 다만 연 5억 달러 프리미엄을 5년간 지불할 자본 여력이 필요한 구조였다고 설명했다. 과거 실패와 원칙: 2015~2016년 Herbalife, Valeant 베팅 손실 이후 단순·예측 가능한 자유현금흐름 창출, 높은 진입장벽, 높은 자본수익률, 강한 재무구조, 우수한 경영·지배구조 등 핵심 원칙으로 회귀했다고 밝혔다. 통화 증발 우려: 국가를 기업에 비유하면 개인 소득의 35%에 대한 과세권 등 자산이 크다. 부채 증가는 우려 요인이지만 자산 측면도 함께 봐야 한다는 입장이다. 경기 회복 전망: 2020년 말 회복 시작, 사람들이 안전을 느끼는 2021년 하반기 정상 경제 접근을 예상했다. 조기 백신 개발이 핵심 변수라고 봤다. 진행자 채널 관련 잡담(구독자 1000명 돌파, 수익화 기준 등)은 투자 내용이 아니다.
다듬은 글
hey what's up stock compounders Brad here so Bill Ackman of Pershing Square was recently interviewed by David Rubenstein from Bloomberg and you know Bill Ackman is one of the guys that Mohnish Pabrai looks to for kind of cloned stock ideas so whenever an investor of this caliber of Bill Ackman's caliber does an interview you know it's I soak it up I devour it and it was a really good interview just a week ago on June 23rd and I wanted to share some highlights that I picked up from Bill Ackman's interview so the first question David Rubenstein asks the economy seems to be in the deep recession at least heading towards a deep recession and yet the market has rebounded you know it's back near its highs before this whole thing started why is the market so much higher than the economy why is the stock market kind of elevated seemingly while the economy is headed for trouble so Ackman replied the S&P 500 which you knows how the what he's talking about in terms of the market is a market cap weighted index and this crisis is affecting different companies in different ways the more dominant large cap companies you know with stronger balance sheets stronger market positions those businesses are actually huge beneficiaries of this crisis what the market does not reflect our small businesses right private companies more levered businesses that don't have access to capital you know one of the largest I think the third largest company in the world right now or at least in the u.s.
is Amazon and you know because of that it makes up a big component of the S&P 500 index you know the larger companies are gonna move the index much more than you know the smaller companies in the S&P 500 and it's up 45% since this crisis started so that does a lot for the averages you know the companies like Microsoft Apple Amazon Facebook Google the changes in those companies in terms of you know stock price are really gonna move the S&P 500 so you know that's why the the market has kind of rebounded if you're just looking at kind of the smallest companies the smallest public companies in the US you know if you have an index of just those smaller public companies you're gonna be down 50 to 80 percent since this crisis started so you know that's what he sees as why the economy seems disconnected from the market it's because these the largest companies in the market are actually benefiting from what's happening and he mentions also the value of business is the present value of the cash it will generate over its lifetime so even if you have cash flows that are disrupted in the short-term say in the next year or two if they're greater in the long-term the values are still going to be higher you know valuations for growth companies aren't really affected if you change kind of what's happening in the next year or two it's it's the earnings out into the future that really move the needle on the valuation of these businesses so really the stock market is just a snapshot of a portion of the economy okay it's a snapshot of the biggest companies especially if you're looking at the S&P 500 index question - why is the market gyrating more than normal you know we've seen swings of 10% in a day both up and down and to this acumen response the market is made up of human beings and people's estimates of the future has been very volatile with so much uncertainty you know so much uncertainty with what's happening with the pandemic when is it going to be over when are people gonna feel safe to travel you know to go to restaurants to kind of resume life as normal the market in the short term is very much a sentiment index or a way for people to express their emotions and there have been a lot of emotions I'm sure you've been experiencing a lot of emotions in the last couple of months and that comes through in in the stock market volatility he also says I don't think the market is dramatically wrong when I look at the market on a company by company basis okay so that's that's kind of interesting question three so this was he was asked about his recent bet back in March where you know he kind of he bet 27 men or he put up twenty seven million dollars betting that the credit spreads were gonna widen okay for for bond the bond market and you know so he put down 27 million ended up making 2.6 billion so it's almost a hundred times returned which is amazing but it's a little bit more complicated than that you know he saw that the credit spreads were at all-time lows going into what he thought would be a serious crisis so he saw an asymmetric upside to downside opportunity now where it where it it's not just that he put 27 million down to make 2.6 billion the way you have to enter a bet like this the way that Ackman entered this bet is that you have to commit to pay five hundred million dollars a year in premiums for five years okay so he had to have access to that capital in order to make this bet now he got lucky that the bet paid off I think it was like within two weeks of entering into this bet so he only had to put up twenty seven million in order to get this huge payoff but you know he was on the hook for five hundred million a year for five years if this thing you know didn't come to fruition if you know if the credit spread hadn't widened and I'm not even sure how much it needed to widen in order for him to get a payoff you know that that would be an interesting thing to you know find out were the details about you know that that big win for Ackman and Pershing Square question four so he was really asked about you know Herbalife valiant what what led to you know those bets that really went south and you know Ackman talks about you know there's eight principles that have driven the investment success both for him and you know for the company he manages and when he is veered from those investment principles he's lost money so you know after 2015-2016 when you know the pain happened from from losing a lot of money on those bets he kind of came back to these core principles that have formed the foundation of his success in the early years of Pershing Square and you know he mentions some of these principles really what they're looking for in investment opportunities companies that are simple predictable free cash flow generating dominant companies with large barriers to entry that earn high returns on capital have limited exposure to intrinsic risks that we can't control strong balance sheets strong balances don't need access to capital to survive have excellent management and good governance that's obviously a lot of boxes to check but you know it reminds me of a book that was recommended by Mohnish Pabrai called the art of being unreasonable you know as investors we can be unreasonable you know there there aren't any called strikes on Wall Street we can wait for that perfect pitch before we before we swing at it so I like that Ackman you know has such a high bar for what it takes before he'll enter into an investment opportunity these are you know obviously some great kind of perennial principles to live by as a value investor question number five are you worried about the printing of money to keep the economy afloat you know multiple trillions of dollars going into you know helping people pay for rent and food that have lost their jobs you know the stimulus the bailouts the kind of helping keep businesses afloat you know that the Fed is printing a lot of money is Ackman worried about that and I really liked his response to this one he said if you think about the country as a business the country has a lot of intrinsic value a lot of asset value but this was the most interesting point one of the most valuable assets of the country is that it owns 35 percent of your income of my income of everybody's income through federal taxation the country retains the right to change that percent ownership at will you know with the the government can change the taxation rate whenever it wants to that's that's an incredible asset on the balance sheet to be able to do that you know he says we also have immense real estate assets infrastructure assets you know and all other kinds of assets in this country the asset side of the u.s.
balance sheet is incredibly large obviously we don't want it the liability side of the balance sheet to grow too much you know debt social security health care costs we have rising liabilities for sure at this time but in order to put those liabilities into context like any business you know we we must consider the asset side as well so I thought that was an awesome answer to that question and finally the sixth question when do you think will come out of this recession he says he thinks we'll begin recovery by the end of 2020 and we'll start to approach normal economy by the second half of 2021 when people start to feel safe again okay that's that's the big thing here when when can people be in contact with other people without fear of contracting this potentially deadly virus if we have an early vaccine you know that's a huge kind of unknown factor here and having an early vaccine to give people that confidence to be able to get have more of a normal life as usual kind of behaviors would make an enormous difference in terms of how quickly the economy can rebound so yeah that's those are the highlights that I took away from Bill Ackman's interview with David Rubenstein I will post to that interview in the description but again I mean when when investors that are at the top of their game you know these super investors that you find in date aroma and for me particularly the investors that Mohnish Pabrai looks to for new investment ideas you know the the investors that he comes through they're 13 FS every quarter those in particular are the investors that you know whenever they do interviews or talks or whatever I loved devouring that information because you know these guys are at the top of their game and there's just so many wonderful things to learn through YouTube watching these interviews so that's all I got guys smash the thumbs up button if you liked videos like this where I kind of give highlights from investor interviews and I'm inching up on these subscriber numbers I'm still I'm still about nine hundred watch hours away from my four thousand you know watch our metric that I need in order to flip on monetization for the channel but I am happy to have surpassed the 1000 subscriber mark and one thing that I thought was interesting having passed the 1000 subscriber mark is that you know now I can do community posts and I think I can post like images and polls in addition to videos like this one so I'm able to have a little bit more versatility in terms of the content so that I produce on the channel which is fun and the other thing I can tag other youtubers in my description and in my title to maybe work towards doing collaborations with other youtubers so if there's any other investing youtubers that you follow you know let me know in the comments below and you know maybe I can slowly work at building a relationship with them and doing some collaborative videos with them in the future anyway guys that's all I got I will see you in the next video take care
Comments 0