저자: Kevin · 외국인
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인플레이션 둔화(피크 통과)가 예상되며 기업 매출 성장률이 2022년 비교 기준 상승으로 둔화될 것. 연기금·헤지펀드의 수익률 압박(멀티플 압축, 기대수익률 3~5%)으로 자금이 기술주로 로테이션될 것이라 주장. 5월 저점 매수(테슬라·에트시·페이스북 등)를 강조하며 기술주 재상승을 전망. 단기 조정은 있을 수 있으나 향후 6개월 기술 로테이션이 유리하다고 봄.
다듬은 글
hey everyone me kevin here i'm excited to say that the growth rotation is upon us but i have some warnings and i want to give some ideas going forward but first we gotta understand what the heck is happening first it's helpful to note that on june 20th i mentioned that the market will continue to freak out in different industries through september and october i believe when inflation starts to inflict down this fall guess what we have to look forward to 2022 comparisons to high 2021 prices blah blah blah you can follow me at real me kevin on twitter to see more of this but basically i said this could leave pension funds in there for hedge funds and private equity scrambling for returns the best prospects hate to say it because they're pricey and face tesla etsy peloton neo apple amazon and so on and so forth folks big big tech why why why why okay here's exactly why as inflation okay let's grab the ipad because it's going to make it a little bit simpler as inflation which is obviously high now even just starts to moderate which this moderation we have already hit peak in china and we are rotating down we are seeing the same expectation for the bank of england the same expectation in germany we're seeing the same thing with the fed over here everybody is literally saying the same thing that we are going to see inflation inflect down kid you not it's right here and you see it for example over here this is the bank of england right suggests a sharp recovery in the second half of the year leading to inflation peaking around two and a half percent and then dropping lower beyond that the bank of england literally goes on to say financial market measures of inflation expectations suggested near-term strength in inflation to be transitory all right this is not going to be a video about the transitory nature of inflation we've talked about that a lot we know the expectations are we going to get we're going to get this inflection to the downside but what does this mean what is a slow down in prices increasing actually mean and why would it happen why would inflation stop skyrocketing well first of all as supply chain constraints ease up there is less pricing pressure on products which that obviously pushes prices down but a lot of people who have bought new refrigerators tvs spent their new money with the reopening surge have bought new computers of the new things they want they're also potentially going to spend less money and so what we get is this massive surge of people spending followed by a decline in people spending we might still spend net net more money the trajectory might still be up but as soon as we go back to spending less money which indications are that this is already happening guess what happens sales at companies across the board start inflecting down as well and this is everything this is the entire economy so i'm not saying that somehow apple is not going to see sales slow down a little bit just because maybe the cheesecake factory or some recovery stocks are going to see a little less enthusiasm even though right now we're crazy enthusiastic restaurants are popping like crazy it's not going to last forever the boom won't last forever it's very very high right now lots of spending right now lots of excitement to get out and live life again i get it i'm a part of it but it doesn't last forever and so what does that mean going forward well what that means going forward is that year-over-year comps for companies are potentially going to be rough all of them literally let's just use the examples here apple and cake in my opinion they're going to have and are already showing this absolutely banger q1s and q2s and q3s like these are going to be some of the most amazing quarters for year-over-year growth that we've seen for companies but the problem is when you get a massive comp which comp sales very very important to keep this in mind this is what investors and and funds on wall street look for they're looking for oh my gosh mega increases in sales at apple oh my gosh mega increases in in same store comp sales at a cheesecake factory from comparing 2021 to say 2019 oh my gosh everything's up well next year when you look back at these high growth percentages where all of a sudden you know computer sales at apple and ipad sales iphone sales are up 10 to 40 percent in some cases we're gonna look back and we're not going to have that same increase even if we literally had a zero percent increase between this year and next year the earnings would be absolutely phenomenal but that growth rate doesn't compound year after year after year this massive growth in 2021 comps for next year are potentially going to be dangerously boring flat small numbers five percent growth instead of 20 percent growth that's normal and that'd be good because we're growing on top of these massively elevated numbers but the rate of growth is going to slow just like the rate of inflation is going to slow this is totally normal this is totally expected now i know there are a lot of you that say i don't know kevin prices are going to keep going up that's fine hear me out for the next six months because this this is going to be an important transition to evidence by the way some of what i'm talking about here it's worth noting that we hit a peak of a 21 increase in credit card usage data from 2019 to 2021 and right now we're already at a 16 increase in other words the rate of growth is beginning to slow all right so kevin hey if the rate of growth is going to slow at apple and cheesecake why are you saying invest in tech and why did you think uh not only in february or march or april or may when you were buying the dip throwing hundreds of thousands of dollars millions of dollars into tech stocks when they were falling and everybody's complaining and kevin you're catching a falling knife oh my gosh you're buying tesla at 550 it's going to go to 200.
how could you do this and people like kevin why would everything's so down now why wouldn't you sell now and just rebuy in the future because i've been investing for a long time i know how this works things go in cycles things go in cycles and we drew this this morning on this morning's live stream and i'm going to show you quickly a mistake people make and then i want to tell you why apple instead of something like cheesecake okay so watch this if right here if the blue line is your tech cycle and the orange line is a cycle for let's say recovery and the green line is a cycle for uh for kryptos the worst thing that you could do is listen to the herd and literally do something like this oh my gosh tech is falling ah tech is doing so horribly let me go by recovery and so what happens a bunch of people in may when pain was at the max point where max payne for tech in may a bunch of people dumping uh dumping tech and buying recovery or crypto okay and then what happened from april uh april and may to now text starting to run again and all of a sudden crypto and recoveries are starting to fall now briefly we've had we're having a little bit of we've come back here from bottoms off crypto but the point is the worst thing that you can do is dump your stocks when they've hit bottom and go buy something else that's the top because when the cycles flip you just get screwed over and over and over and over again this is why when people like oh why don't you try to dump here and try to re-time or whatever i'm buying i bought here here here here here okay i'm buying because the moon is next well we got to talk about the moon being next so here's the thing why did i say this about pension funds and hedge funds very simple so in my tweet i mentioned that pension funds hedge funds and private equity are potentially going to be scrambling for returns this is true because pension funds generally to meet their payouts they need to get somewhere between a six to seven percent return now a six to seven percent return on pension funds used to be easy to get you would just put your money into the s p 500 and boom you get your six to seven percent return it was a no-brainer it was pretty freaking easy you reinvest your dividends done but what we're seeing right now is what i call multiple compression multiple compression is where instead of seeing six to seven percent returns on spy or expecting because we've seen some incredible returns on the s p 500 in the last eight months last year obviously but expectations going forward instead of expecting annual compounded rates of returns for the s p 500 of six to seven percent for the next decade personally i'm seeing these and you can you can measure this by looking at price to earnings ratios we're seeing expectations for returns go down closer to three to five percent this is called compression it's equity return compression this is normal when there's equity return compression you end up getting pension funds and hedge funds that are like ah crap okay well if we're only going to get three to five percent returns how are we going to outperform how are we going to prepare to make sure we can capitalize on larger returns well what do we think of the stuff that's in the s p 500 that's going to on average together return three to five percent what do you think is going to return more money over the next five years is it going to be tech and ev or potentially uh new sort of tech insurance or ads right all sort of grouped into tech i mean think about it lemonade tesla end phase right we talked about that what's going to do better this kind of sector or the retail sector which is basically priced in near perfection or what about the industrials which have priced in near perfection or have run up due to massive increases in commodity prices do we want to invest where there's price to perfectionist or where things are still relatively low and where the prospects for growth are absolutely massive do you want to invest in caterpillar to have a beautiful tractor so you can mine copper that's all of a sudden a whole lot cheaper or and this is no slam on caterpillar okay i respect caterpillar it's done wonderful it's been a wonderful stock but the point is we got to look forward we can't keep looking backwards looking forward my my bet is that the companies that are going to absolutely dominate going forward are like the ones that i bought on may 13th so the proof is in the pudding folks i like to show you facts because when i tell you i'm buying the dip and people like you're catching a filing knife forget you i don't listen to that kind of garbage i do what i think is right now you're gonna see these minus fifty thousand dollar withdrawals that's because i have a ton of extra money at m1 finance and they only let you transfer 50 000 at a time and i've been trying to transfer about a million dollars over uh and anyway it's 50k at a time but anyway i also did some big buying look at those dates folks three buys 300 grand may 11th may 13th 150 000 may 14 16 buys 384 000 we did this live with course members in the stocks in psychology money group this is why you want to be in the program down below when i see the big dips i go heavy on them and it's a signal look at this folks tesla etsy and face bottom may 11th let's go over here to uh we got our four buys over here on may 13th tesla square neo alphabet let's go over here 16 buys on may 14th square etsy lemonade palantir neo crisper docusign pinterest coinbase tradus out of these coinbase is like the only one that's down but that's okay we didn't put too much into coinbase uh trade desk in vitae and face peloton wayfair matterport expi folks the vast majority of these purchases basically all of them with the exception of coin are way up from here folks this is something you have to know about me i buy when there's blood on the streets i buy when there's fear i did millions of dollars worth of purchasing during the crisis we went through between uh february and may and now people are like oh my gosh well now tech's up should i buy tech now okay so here's the thing let's talk about expectations going forward number one tech is not going to go straight up it usually doesn't now tesla sometimes has straight 21 day surges so it could but usually i recommend that when we're looking at a cyclical transition we're transitioning into tech know that there are going to be speed bumps maybe those speed bumps are buying opportunities but what you've got to do is you kind of have to ignore price changes that we've had so far and you got to look and go what's still a reasonably priced company at today's pricing and in my opinion those are opportunities like tesla under 700 and face under 200 etsy under 200.
these are still awesome opportunities in my opinion i still like palantir around 25 26 it's okay it's not as great as it was at 23 certainly not as great as it was at 17 but potential opportunities i do think their trade desk has done a phenomenal move today that position from my may buy is up over at this point 45 which is incredible i wish i bought way more i bought more docusign than i bought trade desk but that also was up about 40 just in the last bit bought a bunch of peloton under 100 that's at 123 right now i think at 123 pton there's still some growth here maybe we go 150 in the short term but some of the numbers are starting to get a little frothy pretty fast so i have a hard time jumping onto the new bandwagons too quickly one that i do think that is being left behind by the movement right now is c3ai so i have uh put money into c3ai as of this morning i invested into c3ai i think it's trading here let's go to the single chart i think it's trading right on a support line it's not the lowest it's been but it's trading right on a support line this is trade desk here we're going to go to c3ai which is ticker symbol ai there we go we're trading right here on this massive support line that we've had we have contact points here one two three contact points may we had a break at almost all tech stocks beneath support hit a new lower support now we've been trading sideways along this support line i think c3ai technically at least could be setting up for a breakout they partner with snowflake they they do have customer concentration they only have like 68 69 customers but i think there's a big opportunity here and i think it's right now it's being left behind in the tech space i think there are plenty of other opportunities i still like roblox i obviously i prefer it closer to its support around 75.
i but the problem is right now the tech rotation back is happening so fast it's hard to pick up on some of those that have been left behind and then not compared to all those that are already rocket shipping but another potential square i prefer it at 230 it's only a 248 right now not too much higher redfin sitting at 63 not bad that's got a lot more room to grow i'd stop buying that one at 70.75 so definitely more opportunities here i'm very very excited about uh these these stocks going forward another one to potentially consider by the way amd amd could set up for a breakout unless it's had too much hype going into the semiconductor shortage so we'll see these are some of my thoughts i wish you the best out there in trading keep in mind that well first of all there's a coupon code expiring in six days on stocks and psychology money uh link down below actually all the courses expire with that coupon code but more importantly i want you to focus on this is a rotation it's a rotation attack it might have large hiccups when those hiccups come because they always come so expect them to come they might come sooner than you think though bye that's my thinking because the next six months are looking beautiful for the tech rotation but i don't want to see those 20 22 comps yet at least until i'm out of my options and i get into shares for the long position my though
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