저자: AndrewBrown · 외국인
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첫째 결론: 이 영상은 피터 린치의 투자 철학과 스톡 스크리너 활용법을 소개하며, 특정 종목의 가격 방향 예측은 없다. 피터 린치의 투자 심리: 주식 투자는 머리보다 위장(감내력)의 문제이며, 감당 가능한 자금으로만 투자해야 한다고 강조한다. 투자 기본 원칙: 주식은 로또가 아니라 기업의 지분이며, 기업이 잘 되면 주가도 장기적으로 오른다고 설명한다. 매도도 매수와 마찬가지로 투자 논리(thesis)가 실현되었을 때 이루어져야 한다. 경제 전망에 대한 입장: 린치는 미래 경제 예측이 어렵다며 경제 공부에 시간을 많이 쓰지 말라고 조언한다. 린치의 기업 평가 기준: 지루하거나 불쾌한 사업, 스핀오프 기업, 애널리스트 미커버 기업, 소문이 있는 기업, 성장 없는 산업, 틈새시장 기업, 반복 구매되는 제품/서비스, 내부자 매수, 자사주 매입 등을 체크리스트로 제시한다. 기업 유형 분류: 슬로우 그로워(5% 미만), 스톨워트(대형 성숙 기업), 패스트 그로워(고성장 소형주), 경기순환주, 자산주, 턴어라운드 기업으로 나눈다. 스크리너 사용: 엔비디아와 프루덴셜 파이낸셜을 비교 예시로 들고, 시가총액·PEG·EPS 성장률·부채비율 조건으로 스톨워트, 패스트 그로워, 슬로우 그로워 스크린을 시연한다. 금융주는 제외한다. 언급 종목: 배릭골드(워런 버핏 투자 언급), 마벨테크놀로지, 바이오라드래버러토리, 글로벌코드블러드(본인 투자 종목), 아마코(U-Haul) 등이 스크린 결과로 언급되나 매수·매도 의견은 없다. 리스크·조건: 스크린 결과는 출발점일 뿐이며 추가 리서치가 필요하다. 필터 조건을 완화해 종목 수를 늘리는 방법도 소개한다. 가격 방향 예측: 대상 자산에 대한 1~3개월 가격 방향 발언 없음.
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so i think peter lynch is my favorite investor look i like warren buffett a lot but peter lynch when he articulates value investing he does it so smoothly so today i'm going to show you exactly how to use a stock screener like the legendary peter lynch i'll have a list of criteria that you can use yourself and i'll do a demonstration for you too and if you're new to my channel welcome my videos are about investments that anyone in the world can make and if you haven't watched my finvis stock screening tutorial video yet well i highly recommend going back and watching that so you understand the tool that i'll be using today i'll put a link here somewhere in the video now peter lynch he ran the magellan fund at fidelity investments from 1977 to 1990 and in that time it returned 30 per annum just for reference that's more than double what the s p 500 did over that period of time so he's probably not a bad person to try to copy he was the best performing mutual fund in the entire world and he's also the author of probably my favorite investing book one up on wall street now before we jump into what peter lynch looks for in an investment well i think some of his best advice is actually not about specific investments it's actually about the psychology of investing so here are some of my favorite points investing in the stock market is about your stomach not your brain there is an almost infinite amount of negative news out there and there will be serious downturns so what is your tolerance to pain can you take these downturns if you need money in one to two years time well you shouldn't be buying stocks can you look at yourself in the mirror and know exactly what you're going to do when the market drops say 10 30 50 people save up and be very careful when buying a car or planning a holiday but will put five to ten thousand dollars in any investment business that they heard at the pub that is gambling not investing that isn't research this is just total speculation stocks are not lottery tickets behind every stock is a company if the company does well over time the stocks do well and vice versa selling a stock well selling a stock is exactly the same as buying a stock you create a thesis when you invest in the company and when the thesis plays out you can sell the economy means nothing peter famously said if you spent 13 minutes a year on economics you have wasted 10 minutes and what he means is that the future is just too hard to predict so don't even bother you will have flops maybe you're right five or six times out of ten but we're trying to make sure that these five or six times out of ten make four hundred percent or one thousand percent or even more so they make up for the flops when you do lose 75 or 100 okay now let's talk about what peter lynch specifically looks for in an investment now a company of course doesn't have to meet all of these different things but any one of these is a good sign these are the questions that peter lynch would ask himself when he's looking into an investment so this is part of putting together a thesis let me try to explain his criteria with nvidia prudential and any other company that i can think of nvidia well they're a high-end graphics card maker they're probably one of the hottest stocks right now and prudential financial and their corporate life insurance with poor stock price performance so here we go this is his list first of all it sounds dull or even better ridiculous what he's talking about here is the actual name itself and prudential financial well that kind of sounds pretty dull i think it does something dumb so corporate life insurance from prudential financial that's pretty boring right but high-end graphics chips from nvidia well that's not dull at all peter lynch would prefer to look at the company that does something boring number three it does something disagreeable now both these companies don't really do something disagreeable but think of something like i don't know a cigarette company that might be an interesting investment for peter lynch because people disagree with smoking number four is it a spin-off now spin-offs can often be undervalued an example of this at the moment is heritage growth properties with warren buffett monish prabrai a lot of investors looking at cerritos growth at the moment and it's a spin-off of the old sears number five the institutions don't own it and the analysts are not following it well both nvidia and prudential have analysts following this company but really small little micro cap companies often don't have any analysts looking at it at all and this would be a good thing number six there are rumors abound it's involved with toxic waste and or the mafia or i just try to think of some examples there both nvidia and prudential don't have rumors about that but sometimes companies do and the share price gets hammered because of it number seven there's something depressing about it well nvidia making high-end graphics cards well that's not depressing but life insurance that's kind of depressing right number eight it's a no growth industry well nvidia are in probably one of the highest growth industries i think corporate life insurance is also in a growing industry but peter lynch would look at it would be more interesting for him to see it in a no growth industry number nine it's got a niche now prudential financial they definitely don't have a niche there are definitely lots of other life insurance companies out there but nvidia while they're in a niche they have the best graphics cards out there so i would consider them in a niche number 10 people have to keep buying it now nvidia don't have a bad recycle rate so every two three years when their computers get a little old the new graphics cards come out and well people do replace their computers because of the graphics cards so that's good and well life insurance was even better because people pay their premiums every year number 11 insiders are buying now at the moment nvidia insiders are actually selling they're not buying at all and prudential well there has been some recent buying and number 12 well the company is buying back shares nvidia at the moment currently is it but prudential is now if you're going to compare nvidia to prudential based on peter lynch's criteria well prudential definitely passes a lot more of them than nvidia now please suggest that every company falls into at least one of these categories so the company could be a slow grower so that's a large mature company it's less than five percent expected long-term growth then you can have a stalwarts which are large mature companies as well but they have higher long-term growth rates then you've got fast growers so these are small companies with really high growth rates over 25 percent you've got cyclicals which are up and down depending on what part of the cycle they're in asset plays now this is where the assets are worth far more than the stock price and lastly turnarounds these are heavily discounted sometimes these companies are falling apart in dire straits so i'm now in the finbis stock screener and the first screen we're going to look at is the stalwarts so the first thing in the descriptive tab is we have the market cap to be over two billion dollars in the fundamentals we've got a peg ratio of lower than one the earnings per share growth over the past five years it needs to be over ten percent the earnings per share growth this year just needs to be positive and the debt to equity people inch really likes companies with low debt so it has to be under a 0.3 now it's very low so once we've done this screen i've done it already it gives us 10 companies now another thing that peter lynch would do would be here to rule out the financial companies he doesn't like bank debt that much so there's going to be a lot of banks here we're going to rule out the banks and we're just going to look past them so here's the screen uh the this is very interesting because we've got uh the second company i see here is barry gold corporation this has been so much in the news in the past three or four months because warren buffett has done uh has taken out a huge investment in this particular company so this would meet uh peter lynch's criteria as well now there are some other companies here there obviously there's a few banks down the bottom here so we've got to ignore the banks uh marvel technology group i've heard of that before maybe that's something to look into bio rad laboratories never heard of them but maybe there's something to look into as well so that's the store was screen i'll have the criteria at the end of this video i'll have it in a list as well so you can you can record that for yourself the next screen we're going to look at are the fast growers so this is how he would screen for them when i have a market cap over 300 million in the fundamentals now we want to still have a peg ratio under one but the earnings per share growth over the past five years now now it's over 20 it's very high remember the earnings per share growth this year just needs to be positive we want to see a pe under 40 that just means that the really really high pe ratios we've cut them out and we still want to see it under 0.3 for debt to equity now this gives us 21 companies now remember we're not going to include banks and financials and things like that so there's another there's some interesting companies here big lots has come up on some screens of mine before uh global cord blood corporation now i've invested in this company i have a video about this so uh it's very cool that it's coming up here on the fast growers screen from peter lynch what else do we have here uh we have marvel technology in barrick gold again and the rest are probably banks so again another interesting list here to go through and this would be considered a fast grower from peter lynch so the last screen we're going to look at today is called the slow growers screen now what we've done here first is we've put the market cap over two billion dollars again and in the fundamentals we've got well we've got the peg ratio now under a two so it was a one in the other screens now it's under a two the only special growth over the past ten years now that's under ten percent make sure you press under ten percent not over ten percent the earnings especially growth this year needs to be positive and the debt to equity again under a 0.3 and we have a list here of 13 different companies so again we don't like look he doesn't like looking at the financial sector which is most of these as you can see there are some insurance companies here that i've looked at before which i think are some fantastic deals mfc in particular uh but peter lynch wouldn't he'd actually rule out all the financials so we've got belgium corporation uh no idea what they do but we could look into what they what they do oh and down the bottom here we've got armaco which is u-haul um you might be familiar with this if you're american it's the is the company that you use for storing things and transporting when you're moving house and things like that that's very interesting company very stable company uh it's obviously a slow grower because it's come up on this screen and yeah that might be a very interesting company to look into a little bit more if people uh are going to be moving around america a lot this company is very popular so here are the metrics for you to screen like one of the best investors in the world but remember this is just a starting list you still need to develop a thesis and do far more research into a company and who knows maybe you find something here that peter lynch would also love to see maybe none of them are good enough i'll leave that for you to decide and something i also like to do when looking into the screeners is to just play around with the filters now i'm back in the store with screen at the moment and i might just want to play around with some of these criteria just to loosen them up a bit to get more companies so for the market cap well maybe i'm happy to make it over 300 million dollars in size not 2 billion and in the fundamentals well look that debt to equity ratio is really low at 0.3 it would be fine if it was 0.33 or 0.35 so let's make it under uh 0.4 and look it's actually made it now there's 46 companies so this gives me a way way bigger list of cons of potential store wood companies that would be good investments so that's what you need to do you need to play around with these uh these tools a little bit and don't be so strict and hey if you enjoyed this video please make sure to hit like and subscribe to my channel so you don't miss out on any of my future videos and i will see you next time
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