저자: AndrewBrown · 외국인
요약 보기
리 루(Li Lu)의 히말라야캐피털 포트폴리오와 투자 철학을 분석하고, 그의 중국 투자가 개인 투자자에게도 참고할 만한지 검토하는 영상. 리 루의 배경과 이력: 천안문 시위 참여 후 미국으로 망명, 컬럼비아 대학에서 경제·법·경영 학위 취득. 1993년 워런 버핏 강연을 계기로 투자 경력 시작. 히말라야캐피털 연 복리 약 30%(1998년 이후) 주장. 러시아 투자 사례: 1990년대 소련 붕괴 후 유동성 없는 주식증서를 헐값에 매입(루코일 등), 이후 상장되어 약 10배 상승. 진행자는 이를 베네수엘라 같은 붕괴 국가에 그대로 적용하기 어렵다고 평가. 중국 투자 철학: 중국 시장은 아직 성숙하지 않아 단기 매매 위주라 장기 가치투자자에게 기회가 많다는 주장. 두 가지 순풍으로 ①수출 주도에서 서비스 경제로의 전환에 따른 중산층 성장, ②금융 섹터(펀드) 발전으로 기업 자금조달 경쟁 확대를 제시. 포트폴리오 언급: 최대 보유 BYD(포트폴리오의 절반 이상) — 진행자는 이해가 어렵다며 직접 투자에는 불편하다고 밝힘. 마이크론은 과거 35~40달러 대비 현재 80~85달러로 많이 올라 상승 여력이 상당 부분 실현되었다고 평가. 뱅크오브아메리카는 상승 후 매도했다고 밝힘. 알파벳·페이스북(메타)·애플을 긍정적으로 언급하며 페이스북을 가장 저평가로 봄. 핀둬둬(PDD)는 자체 가치평가 계산 결과 보수적으로 봐도 저평가 가능성이 있다고 언급하며 추가 조사 필요성 제기. 진행자 결론: 유명 투자자의 아이디어를 참고하는 것은 유익하지만, 각 종목은 직접 깊이 분석해야 한다는 입장.
다듬은 글
okay so today i want to go through the research i've been doing into lilu and more specifically why he is so bullish on chinese stocks i want to try and learn about his investing philosophy and whether his moves in china are something that we could also be doing later in the video i'll go through his current positions and give my thoughts on each of his current investments both in the us and throughout the world all right so let's go and find whether we should all be paying more attention to the chinese market now if you have robin hood or weeble or a trading app like that well you most likely don't have access to many of the markets throughout the world now that puts you at a serious disadvantage as some of the best companies in the world are not in the usa look i personally have investments in japan australia and looking at chinese canadian and british stocks as well i can invest in these companies through my interactive brokers account which in my opinion is the best and safest brokerage company in the world now i actually have two brokerage accounts the other was saxo bank and they are really good as well so go to the link to interactive brokers or saxo bank in my description and i think with the interactive broker's one you'll get a 200 of interactive broker stock when you sign up if you want to follow the best investors in the world into international markets well you'll just need a good brokerage account so speaking of the best investors in the world let's talk more about lee liu now lilu runs himalaya capital and has a reported 30 compound annual return since 1998 which would put him in the same leagues as the greats like warren buffett charlie munger personally entrusts his own money to lee liu that's how impressive lilu is when one of the greatest and most successful investing minds of all time gives his money to someone to manage well that person must be probably the best of the best now lilu's story is really fascinating he was actually one of the leaders of the tiananmen square student protests where he was organizing and participating in those hunger strikes now before that his mother and father were sent to labor camps in china during the cultural revolution and he moved between foster families then while at university he had to flee china because of his involvement in the tiananmen square protests he luckily got out of the country first to france and then to the usa his reputation as a bit of a hero carried with him through into the u.s where he was lucky enough to be awarded a scholarship to columbia university where he learnt english and got three degrees economics law and business all at the same time so pretty impressive stuff now lilu's first introduction to warren buffett was at a guest lecture at columbia business school in 93 where lilu almost didn't attend lily recalled that it was his second year of study and his friend invited to him to this guest lecture of the famous warren buffett because buffett was famous even in 93 but lilu however because english wasn't so good for him he misunderstood and thought his friends said they were going for a free lunch buffet along with an opportunity to learn how to make some money being a broke university student a free meal it was a good enough reason for him to go to a lecture funnily enough there was actually no free lunch but warren buffett was giving a talk lilu stayed anyway and this one event put him on the path to starting his investment career now this all sounds very serendipitous but i guess we all have something similar in our own lives i mean my dad used to read these investing newsletters when i was a teenager and i was just super bored one day and picked up one of these newsletters off the floor and started reading it and that put me on my investing journey i guess my mind was open to investing and i just needed something to come along and start me on that journey it was probably going to happen eventually lilu started his fun and lost 19 in the first year which is a tough way to start an investment fund he wasn't worried though later saying in my view the biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital not only is the mere drop in stock prices not a risk but it is an opportunity where else do you look for cheap stocks now hunting for cheap stocks is exactly what he was doing and he struck gold investing in russia i find this story absolutely mad so during the 1990s the ussr collapsed and the region was going through radical change to capitalism it was complete uncertainty many of the workers at the big companies in russia were given stock certificates in the companies now there was no stock market in moscow at the time so there was no easy way to sell these share certificates and because the country was previously communist most of these workers had no idea what a share certificate even is so they thought it was this useless piece of paper so this combination of a lack of liquidity an absent marketplace and the general uncertainty around russia during this rocky period meant that these companies were trading at massive discounts how massive well lilu explains forget about earnings just consider the assets on the balance sheet at the time the five-year average for oil prices was about 20 per barrel and on a per share basis they were trading for as low as one cent on the dollar sometimes half a cent on the dollar so about 10 cents to 20 cents per barrel of crude oil and that's not even counting the earnings from the company it was just ridiculous at the end of the day these were still huge companies that held monopolies in the russian oil and gas sectors with very strong balance sheets lilu invested in the company called luke oil a newly formed entity created by the russian government by buying shares from the employees who didn't know what the share certificate was and thought it was worthless a few years later the stock was listed on the newly formed moscow stock exchange and now up 10x now look let's be honest here we are not going to be replicating this madness it would be like going into a country that has collapsed and buying up assets like going into venezuela or something and the people that did go into venezuela had a lot of their assets taken by the new radical government so i think lilu was a madman in his early investing days now after these early years of wild investments with spectacular results lilu had evolved into more the manga-style investing approach running a concentrated long-only fund and he is very very good at it even with his negative 19 first year his 33 year average is now somewhere around 30 since 1998 so he turned 300 000 into well over a billion dollars okay this is what lilu thinks about investing in china i think china is one of the best markets in the world if you are a value investor in a sense the market is still underdeveloped it is not representative of the real economy in the same way as it is in the united states the trading and investors are not as mature there's still this mentality of faster trading and high turnover which drives companies through this faster pace of boom and bust this usually provides opportunities for patient investors who truly know the value of the businesses he goes on to explain that there are two major tailwinds in china the country is moving away from an export-led economy to a services economy this grows the middle class of china and increases wealth in the country significantly then many investment funds are growing fast and funding new companies banks used to do a lot of the funding into new companies now it's more competitive and more opportunities to get funding for young companies so these two tower wins of the growing middle class and the developing financial sector are the reasons why he's so optimistic about the future for chinese equities and the chinese economy here is what i can find out about himalaya capital's portfolio the biggest holding at over half the portfolio is byd the electric car maker in china this is the big bet on china from lilu my thoughts on byd is that it is a very difficult business to understand but charlie munger and buffett both have invested in byd alongside lee liu now it isn't just an electric car maker it makes batteries mobile phone components and factory products as well this one for me is just way too hard for me to get my head around and i'm not comfortable with it at all lilu must have put in years of work into this investment which has paid off very well so far i guess we could just trust that lilu is smarter than i will ever be and just copy him into this investment a very valid approach so if he is ever buying more i guess he thinks it is undervalued and that would be a good time to join in now the next company is micron technology and this is a popular stock amongst my favorite investors monica pabrai guy spear david tepper seth clement prem watson they all have big investments in micron it was super hard for me to even understand it a little bit and i probably don't need to understand it completely when all these brilliant mines have big investments in the company i think it must have been undervalued when the price was between 35.40 about a year ago now at 80 85 i think a lot of the upside has been achieved i'm not exactly sure what the future of this company looks like either bank of america is next on the list i know bank of america well as i've actually just sold my position in the company it was just really cheap when i bought it and the price has moved up a lot since i was investing still a good company i just think i have better investment opportunities to move money into maybe selling will be a mistake but i don't think so a couple of the big tech names now in alphabet facebook and apple i like all of these companies i've invested in apple in the past and still have my alphabet and facebook stocks all three of these companies are still growing and creating new areas for growth all the time google and facebook have projects in many different fields that could be huge winners for the company and apple well it probably has the best brand in the world we all know these companies and if i had to pick one today that i had to buy well i think facebook is the best value and has just a ridiculous amount of cash on their balance sheet that's probably the best deal of the three alphabet though is probably my favorite company out of the three it's just far more expensive then last on the list we see pin duo duo this is really interesting pinju ajua is a chinese e-commerce company that is growing at lightspeed i've been asked a few times about pin joe jiu but i haven't looked in detail into the company before so i don't know much about it but i did run the valuation through my intrinsic value calculator just to see if there is a bargain to be had now i was pretty conservative with the growth rates considering it is growing way faster than 30 right now it's more like a hundred percent but i assume that was pandemic related so i slowed it down a lot i used a big return rate of 30 as my margin of safety now these numbers are in chinese one and it converts to about 65 us dollars as the buy price currently is about 130 now i'm probably being way too conservative here if i reduce my big margin of safety and increase that growth rate well maybe it's actually a bargain i'll have to take a look at the company and see what i think the future is like for them i might have to do a deep dive into it especially since lee liu is invested he is smarter than me so there is obviously something attractive here something about pinjui that i do know is that 10 cent is actually hold quite a big stake in the company uh so i know that with 10 cents backing and 10 cents investment power pinju has probably a very strong future now leave me a comment on what you think about lilu's portfolio i think it's great to study with the best investors in the world it helps me a lot and gives me ideas for my own portfolio it's like we have the best stock investors in the world giving us their best ideas it would be insane not to pay attention so thanks for staying to the end and i'll see you in the next video
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